Politics over Demographic Explosions

Politics over Demographic Explosions

 

Since 2018, on every World Population Day - 11 July - I had been providing a perspective over India's Demographic Explosion in India forewarning the horror prospects of its internal security threat concerns, but there were no takers among the successive ruling regimes. Even Yogi Adityanath's, Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, pleas are likely to fall on "Deaf Ears" particularly among minority communities.   

 

Extracts highlighted in the past 4-years are reproduced below to provide grim prospects:

 

"The real strategic challenge confronting mankind today is "Demographic          Transitions” to include population explosion, migrations (legal and illegal) and identity crises.       Unless global    leadership collectively addresses the issue, none can resolve             crises    proliferations."

 

"Population “Deluge or Time Bomb” is India’s emerging horror prospect:  mother of all              strategic challenges and most heinous internal security threat concern to overcome.” (2019)."

 

“Demography is a drama in slow motion” is a succinct reality. Globalization gave impetus to    unprecedented wave of migrations, both legal and illegal, threatening social, political and        economic equilibrium."

 

"Today, there are 65 million refugees among the world’s 7 billion people, less than 1 percent.                                But, it is well over the combined population of Canada and Australia (35.16 plus 24.1 million).           But, they occupy over 11 percent of total land (9.9 million sq km plus 7.7 million sq km) on           earth, which is 148.9 million sq km."

 

" Irrefutably, Islam is the fastest-growing major religion. Due to highest fertility rate, its surge                is unstoppable. It is expected to decline only to just above the global replacement rate (2.1          per woman) beyond 2050. As per projections by the Pew Research Center, by 2050, the     number of Muslims (280 crores, or 30 percent of the world’s population) and Christians (290                crores, or 31 percent) will for the first time be at near   parity."

 

"Muslim surge fallout is simple. Challenge Islam will Christianity for pre-eminence on the        global   plane and the Hinduism in South Asia. "

 

"The demographic surge in the three key nations of South Asia by 2050 includes: India – 185 crores; Pakistan – over 30 crores; and Bangladesh – 26 crores. That is, a total of nearly 240 crores out of projected global population of 970 crores. What does it imply? One in every four in the world will belong to South Asian origin by 2050."

"What about addition of “UNADJUSTED POPULATION” approximately 5% as per demographic                 experts?  So, by 2051 A.D. one cannot rule out the prospect of population peaking at 2000              million (200 crores) representing 20% of global population tucked in barely 2 percent of                 earth’s surface area."

                Yet another startling feature would be India having over 30 crores Muslim population by 2050. And, the total Muslim population of the three nations would be over 86 crores out of around 280 crores globally. That is, double the population of North America in 2015. Extracts covering in outline demographic changes in India after 1947 particularly Muslim population surge, which is a grave concern, are as given below:

"The growth rates by religion includes: Hinduism from 84% in 1951 down to 79.80% in 2011; Islam increased from 9.80% in 1951 to 14.23% in 2011; Christianity static at 2.30% from 1951; and Sikhism declining from 1.79% in 1951 to 1.72% in 2011.

"As per estimates, the growth of Muslim population: 207 milion (2020), 204 million (2019),  201 million (2018), 194 million (2017), 187 million (2016), 172.2 million (2011). By 2050, as per estimates Muslims will number 29.24 crores and Hindus 140.25 crores. As per official datas, India’s overall population at the time would be 173.03 crores with the Muslim proportion at 16.89%. The acerbic leader Asaduddin Owaisi claims higher number of Muslims over 20% today, that is, over 25 crores as on date."

"In contrast, population growth in Pakistan is from 3.7 crores in 1951 to 17.3 crores in 2011. Hindus as a percentage of population declined from 25% in 1947 to 12.9% in 1951 due to population exodus during partition."

"As per 1951 census, West Pakistan had 1.6% Hindu population, while East Pakistan (modern Bangladesh) had 22.05%. According to the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan data, just around 1,000 Hindu families fled to India in 2013. In May 2014, a member of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Dr Ramesh Kumar Vankwani, revealed in the National Assembly of Pakistan that around 5,000 Hindus are migrating from Pakistan to India every year."

"In Bangladesh, Hindu population has dropped to 10.2%, which is due to exodus to India triggered by Pakistan military crackdown in 1971."

"The growth data of Muslim population in West Bengal and Assam is certainly a matter of national security concern. In West Bengal, Muslims constituted 19.85% in 1951; and 27.01% (2.45 crores in real numbers out of total 9.12 crores) in 2011. The highest concentrations of Muslims are in three districts bordering Bangladesh: Murshidabad – 66.28%; Malda – 51.27%; and Uttar Dinajpur – 50.92%. Following behind them are Birbhum with 37.06%, South 24 Parganas with 35.57% and North 24 Parganas with 25.72% and Koch Bihar with 25.54."

"Next, according to 2011 Census, Islam is the fastest growing religion in Assam. In 1951, Muslims accounted 0.199 crores constituting 17.62%. As per 2011 census, Muslims accounted 1.068 crores out of total population of 3.12 crores constituting 34.22%of its population. 9 out of 27 districts particularly bordering Bangladesh, have significant Muslim majority population (Over 50%): Dhubri - 79.67%; Barpeta - 70.74%; Darrang - 64.34%; Hailakandi - 60.31%; Goalpara - 57.52%; Karimganj - 56.36%; Nagaon - 55.36%; Morigaon - 52.56%; and Bongaigaon - 50.22%. Three districts have over 30% Muslim population to include: Cachar - 37.71%; Kamrup - 39.66%; and Nalbari - 35.96%. Kokrajhar district also closely follows one-third Muslim population."

"Even in Kerala, the Muslim surge is real – from 0.78 crores in 2001 to 0.88 crores in 2011. Whereas, the Hindu population has declined from 1.82 crores in 2001 to 1.78 crores in 2011. And, Muslims are in significant numbers to influence outcome of elections in districts to include: Mallapuram – 70.24%; Kozhikode – 39.24%; Kasargod – 37.24%; Kannur – 29.43%; Palakkad – 28.93%; and Waynad – 28.65%."

"National migration crisis, particularly in the Northeast (NE), despite of inner line regulations, is real. People are migrating from both Bangladesh and Nepal, mostly Poor Quality Human Resources (PQHR) influx. In reality, the average annual population growth rates in Assam since 1971 include: 35% in 1971: and 22% as per reports in 2000 AD.  Indigenous groups will face identity crises." 

 

"Once across the borders, illegal migrants gain ready access to political patronage due to vote bank politics. Political parties in West Bengal and Assam vie with each other to provide illegal migrants with shelter, ration cards and enlistment in the voter’s list. Erstwhile majorities have already turned into minorities in sensitive border-states.  Soon the Hindus will be a minority in Assam, West Bengal and even Bihar and New Delhi. Violence will be endemic."

 

"Finally, there is growing apprehension that it has already paved the way for peaceful Islamic Crescent’s conquest of Assam and West Bengal. There are a large number of anti social elements and potential fifth columnists, who are infiltrating in the garb of immigrants.  Until illegal migrations are halted, identity crises, communal violence, eradication of poverty and illiteracy may remain enigmas." 

                "Political parties and their leaders have been playing “Vote Bank” politics - appeasing and       polarizing the Muslims. Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal, cannot but help    championing the Muslim cause lest she and her party are thrown out in elections."

                 Viewed in the above growth estimates of population in the South Asian context and content, religious fundamentalism is bound to engulf India over between “We” and “They” on religious lines unless there is a ‘sea change’ in the behavior patterns of different religious communities. It is unlikely that they would respect each other religious faiths in an atmosphere of “Tolerance”. In sum, the prospects of inter and intra religious crises and conflicts proliferation and escalation is, therefore, a distinct prospect globally and in the South Asian region. Collective visionary leadership at all levels to address the  national strategic challenge is dire need; but yet to be sighted on the horizon."

In his 2019 Independence Day speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over a “population explosion. While Modi appreciated India’s demographic dividend, he expressed anxiety on this occasion, and asked for measures to deal with the implied stress on the country’s supposedly limited resources. Extract of the Total Fertility Rate’ (TFR), measured as the number of children born to a woman, is given below:

 

"from 4.97 during 1975-80 to 2.3 for the current period of 2015-20. As of 2017, the TFR is 2.2.      By 2025-30 it is expected to go down to 2.1 and slide to 1.86 during 2045-50 and 1.78 during       2095-2100 as per the  World population estimates. Some experts believe that population           stops growing   only after about a generation of around 25 years after achieving TFR=2.1. In          the case of Kerala, population is predicted to stop growing only around 2025 A.D."

 

"All of India’s states except six have already achieved a replacement level fertility close to or                 at par with the national average. The six exceptions are Bihar (3.2), Uttar Pradesh (2.9),     Madhya Pradesh (2.7), Rajasthan (2.5), Jharkhand (2.5) and Chhattisgarh (2.4). In particular,      UP may reach 2.1 TFR only around 2100. 

 

Coercive policies - Hum do, Hamare Do - and fertility-decline disincentives have failed in India and around the world. India is projected to surpass China by 2023 as the most populous nation. In reality, quantity-wise, India’s population is nearly four times larger than USA. But quality-wise, India’s HDI value (0.545%) is nearly two times lower than the USA (0.927%). And national product-wise, India lags way behind.

 

Yet another significant challenge is the rapid urbanisation which is unstoppable today. The flow may become a tidal wave if development processes do not lend hope to rural people. Human migrations are civilisation evolutionary processes. As per Myron Wiener, “migration flow, once begun, induces its own flow”.  It sets in motion a chain-cycle reaction.   Enormous land overload and fatigue will be distinct prospect.  Demands will multiply covering almost all sectors to include: food and drinking water; land reforms; house sites and houses; clothing; education; power; fuels; infrastructure; mineral resources; industries; and so on. After all, consumption levels have been improving due to improved quality of living. Food security, water security (both for drinking and irrigation), energy security, job security, health security challenges will unfold unforeseen crises. 

 

However, the power of technology provides windows of challenges and opportunity to exploit. However, with the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, job opportunities could further recede. The real challenge is, therefore, reconciliation of expanding asymmetry between population, resources and technology.

               

Paul Kennedy articulated the global challenge succinctly - “the greatest test for human society as it confronts the twenty-first century is how to use ‘the power of technology’ to meet the demands thrown up by ‘the power of population’, that is, how to find effective global solutions in order to free the poorer three-quarters of humankind from the growing Malthusian trap of malnutrition, starvation, resource depletion, unrest, migration, and armed conflicts – developments that will endanger the richer nations, if lesser directly. Economic change and technological developments, like wars or sporting tournaments, are not usually beneficial to all”. Paul Kennedy’s prognostication is relevant to India. There is no alternative for Indian leadership but to expediently find solutions on all fronts – immigration and settlement policies; human resources development; and agricultural, industrial and technological revolutions.

 

Most importantly, by no stretch of imagination, jobs can created every day to exploit the “Youth Dividend”. No “Magic wands” for “Jobs for all”. Nearly 10 lakhs are entering India’s workforce each MONTH. Experts are projecting 28 crores to flood the workforce by 2050. According to the labor bureau data, India had added 135,000 jobs during 2015, 421,000 in 2014, 419,000 jobs in 2013, 321,000 jobs in 2012, 929,000 jobs in 2011, and 870,000 in 2009.

 

Also, all those claiming to be champion advocates of “poverty alleviation” and enhanced “life-styles” are only ‘building castle in the air” thereby fooling the gullible people of India.

 

Forging a national consensus on formulating a ‘credible/realistic’ population policy and strategy is an uphill challenge. Of course, the strategic choice to exercise is extremely narrow. “Two child” policy is redundant.   Unacceptable politically for enactment of “one-child law for a period of at least 10 years,” but an imperative that may be reviewed later.

The possible escape route may be to formulate a credible “Incentive and Disincentive” strategy and effectively enforce it. Otherwise, population control – hypothetical population at 1500 million (150 crores) by 2030 would be impossible. The State cannot squander away its resources on those individuals who do not care to promote national interests.

 

Surely, the State can enforce administrative measures uniformly so that people opt for population control. Individuals may enjoy the right to abide by their religious norms, but they cannot lay claims as a matter of right to extension of perks and privileges, such as reservations, scholarships, ration cards, house sites, loans, subsidies, LTC's, lands and so on.    Issue of ration cards be limited to four or three people per family only.  Free assignment of land and house sites is restricted to families who comply with one-child norm.  Eligibility for house allotments under various schemes and loans is restricted to families complying with the one-child norm.  Loans and subsidies should be similarly restricted.  Reservations in educational institutions and jobs are restricted to the first child only. Such measures are necessary to arrest the galloping population growth in our nation. If individuals want to uphold their religious sentiments over national interests, they cannot demand as their right privileges extended by the nation to law-abiding citizens.

 

To sum up, the Deluge or Time Bomb or Volcano of demographic transitions is engulfing endlessly.  It is breeding identity crises, poverty, illiteracy and PQHR's. Caste, communal and class conflicts are endlessly erupting. If one is controlled on one day another erupts next day.  Violence has already inflicted untold tur­bulence in some States.  Its virus is rapidly spreading to other States and other fields.  A holistic and multi-pronged strategy – Strategy of Incentives and Disincentives - on the family planning, migration, settlement and HRD fronts alone can convert an uphill challenge into an opportunity. Otherwise, collapse modern India unable to bear the burden of demographic transitions.

Article by GB Reddy Sir