Part I - Bangladesh – Dagger at India’s Back?

The outcome of the crisis engulfment of Bangladesh is extraordinarily complex, fluid and most unpredictable: always a “Dagger at India’s Back”. In retrospect, India is caught in the middle of “Bangladeshi STORM, more aptly, TEMPEST” in the ongoing crisis eruption. No easy strategic choices for India to make for short, mid and long term contexts.

The grim reality for India to confront is simple – Islamic State with Sharia Law strict implementation. Remember that since 1971 political instability, due to political extremism, was endemic. It is due to slow but steady advancement and consolidation of political polarization and radicalization. Most probably the trend will continue. The politicization of the counter-terrorism agenda by Sheik Hasina during her rule only aggravated social polarization within the nation, further enabling Islamist networks to flourish instead of working towards their eradication.

The review of political developments post 1971 Liberation of Bangladesh is presented in outline. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (January 1972 to August 1975) was assassinated by disgruntled Awami League leaders and military officers. CIA allegedly instigated the plot. Only his daughters Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana, who were visiting West Germany, escaped. They were banned from returning to Bangladesh.

Followed Military-Civil regime under Ziaur Rahman, who was assassinated in May 1981 at Chittagong. He founded the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). Bangladesh Jatiotabadi Chatradal is the student wing of the BNP.

Yet another coup followed on 24 March 1982 with Army Chief of Staff General Ershad assuming power. He founded the Jatiya (National) Party. Subsequently in December 1991, Ershad resigned after two months of widespread of civil unrest called by the alliance of opposition parties to include the BNP led by Khaleda Zia, Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina along with the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeI-B) and Islamic and other opposition ranks.

Next, Khaleda Zia, BNP, formed the government from 1991–96. She too resigned following denunciation by the three main opposition parties.

Thereafter, Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister when Awami League won and formed the government with support from the Jatiya Party. By June 1999, the BNP and other opposition parties rallied resulting in Sheik Hasina stepping down.

Khaleda Zia was sworn in on 10 October 2001, as prime minister for the third time, when the Four Party Alliance led by the BNP won over a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Protests by the Awami League and allies resulted in civil strife and Khaleda Zia resigned.

A caretaker government was in place from 2006 to 2008. In the following national election held on 29 December 2008, the Awami league won the national election as part of a larger electoral alliance that also included the Jatiya Party. Sheik Hasina became the Prime Minister.

The recent protests against quotas in government jobs for the children and grandchildren of those who fought in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War brought to light a level of economic disaffection that was sweeping the country’s educated youth. Sheik Hasina stated that “If the grandchildren of freedom fighters do not receive (quota) benefits,” she asked “who would get it? The grandchildren of Razakars?” The term refers to the much-hated collaborators with the Pakistani army during the country’s liberation war. Students reacted to Hasina’s derisive reference to them as Razakars, in an unexpected and bold manner, with many appropriating the term in social media and during protests.

Yet another significant player on the ring side initially was the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeI -B), largest Islamist party, that aimed to transform the nation into an Islamic country. Since 2001, the party has received international scrutiny due to its alleged involvement in several terror attacks against religious minorities, as well as against Awami League political and liberal activists. ISI assisted the alliance between BNP and Jel-B, whose student’s wing was later revived in Dhaka University. The party’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) or Jamaat-Shibir, also played a role in the terror attacks.

As per latest Bangladeshi intelligence reports, the blueprint for massive protests over the quota system that led to the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, was drafted in London in collaboration with Pakistan's ISI. Bangladeshi officials have claimed they have evidence of meetings between Tarique Rahman, the acting chief of the BNP and son of Khaleda Zia, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) officials in Saudi Arabia. Even the hand of China behind the scenes is suspected.

Be that as it may, political power alternated between Awami League and BNP in alliance with other parties. Bangladesh experienced 2 assassinations, 2 military coups and five regimes destabilized by rejecting election results, boycotting Parliament and citing "grave political, economic, and societal crises" by parties out of power. Installation of caretaker governments headed by General or Chief Justice and others is common practice to restore peace and organize elections. Alongside internal fissures get exploited by external agencies to establish friendly regimes. Pakistan, China and even the US are in the race to befriend whichever regimes come to power.

The root cause for political instability is the chemistry of the Bengali society. Bengalis, particularly Decca Bengalis, call themselves highly emotional and volatile. As per their own psychology experts, their expressions or feelings are often unpredictable, particularly when they act collectively. Let me record Professor Rafique Ullah Khan, a literary critic and essayist, views about his own people: “Whenever Bengalis united against oppression – colonial, semi-colonial, or oppressive regimes which ignored the differences in faith and doctrine – another instance of the nation’s emotional expression is recorded.” For example, united and spontaneous participation in nation-wide mass movements, most notably the Liberation War or celebrations for achievements of the nation, symbolizes the emotion of Bengalis.”

Considering the above experts view, the recent eruption of protests resulting in the fleeing of Sheikh Hasina is but natural. People’s ire or pent-up anger is also against autocratic style of functioning and corruption.

What is most significant to note is political polarization has reached historical heights. The remnants of Razakars, East Pakistani paramilitary force organized by General Tikka Khan in East Pakistan, have forged links with transnational movements such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). No wonder, Islamist terrorism threatens secularists and religious tolerance in Bangladesh, which was the Awami League's ideology.

Violence against minorities and desecration/destruction of Temples has been a regular feature of almost all protests and agitations. The Islamist parties and their militant organizations politicize anti-Muslim violence in India to aggravate anti-Hindu sentiment and backlash in their backyard. Recently Sheik Hasina had even called on Modi to quell anti-Muslim violence in India, referring to its impact on communal harmony in her country. And Modi himself has become a controversial symbol in Bangladesh; his March 2021 visit to Dhaka provoked clashes between Islamist protesters and police in a southeastern district of the city.

The tragic tale of the Hindus of East Bengal must start with the Noakhali genocide in 1946 - at least 5,000 Hindus were massacred, hundreds of Hindu women raped and thousands forcibly converted to Islam; many more fled to India. Next, they became the victims of horrendous genocide in 1971. From 22.05% in 1951, it was reduced to 18.50% in 1961, 13.50% in 1974, 8.96% in 2011 and 8.4% in 2024.

In 2001, following the electoral victory of the BNP led by Khaleda Zia, her supporters unleashed a systematic campaign of violence against Hindus that went on for about 150 days. A judicial commission probing this violence documented about 18,000 incidents of major crime; about 1,000 Hindu women were raped and 200 were victims of gang rape. Nearly 500,000 Hindus fled to India. When the International Crimes Tribunal indicted several Jamaat members in 2013 for war crimes against Hindus during the 1971 Bangladesh atrocities, their supporters retaliated by attacking Hindus: Hindu properties and businesses were looted, women were abducted and raped and temples were desecrated. Overall, more than 50 Hindu temples were destroyed and over 1,500 Hindu homes were burnt spread out over 20 districts. Hindus secondary constitutional status makes them vulnerable to mob violence orchestrated by fundamentalist groups especially during election times and during periods of social turmoil.

In sum, the complexity and fluidity of the Bangladeshi crisis and its fallout is quite unpredictable. India should be prepared to deal with the BNP, JeI-B and other radical Islamist combine. Meanwhile, should there be mass Bangladeshi Hindu exodus into India; there will certainly be a backlash against Muslims in India by radical Hindu elements.

In such a situation, how the bilateral relations will emerge in short, mid and long term context will depend on the Interim Government headed by Muhammad Yunus, Nobel Laureate, backed by the Army. At best, India must follow the “Wait and Watch Strategy” in a short term context. How democracy will be restored and which party will come to power and what foreign policy will be adopted should ultimately determine India’s strategic posture.

Part II – Rise of Radical Islam in Bangladesh; Part II – Lessons for India