“Power respects Power” in the “Hawkish World” of today. Power in all dimensions include: social
power; soft power (diplomacy); hard power (military); economy; technology; and political
will.
Lessons must be identified and defined not only from the
above variables; but also from the adversary’s end objectives, ways and means –
Higher Directions/Grand Strategy and military strategy. Also, it is not the
size that counts; but the size of the fight that counts – not only political
will and military will, but also social will.
Add to it, it quality but not quantity that counts.
Most importantly, Xi Jinping’s end objective - “Chinese
Dream” - is recounted as backdrop to include: “achieving the great rejuvenation
of the Chinese nation: “Two Centenaries”; and “Four Comprehensives.” The “Two Centenaries” are specific: by 2021,
when the CCP celebrates its centenary, complete the building of a modern
socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced
and harmonious in all respects, with a strong military to make China the
world’s dominant power by 2049, when Peoples Republic of China (PRC) marks its
centenary.
Napoleon Bonaparte in 1814 prophesized: “Let China sleep for
when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Xi Jinping himself used a version of
the quote in March 2014 speech in France (200 years later): “The lion that is
China has awoken, but it is a peaceful, amiable, and civilized lion.” A former
Colonel stated later, “China was once called the sleeping lion in the East, but
now we have been awakened, and Xi Jinping is the leading lion of the lion
packs, who dare to fight anytime.”
China is no more “mystery wrapped in enigma. Xi Jinping
wants to reclaim “Middle Kingdom” glory for China. So, its forays in all fields
are expansionist. And, the policy\military strategy enunciated includes: “Creeping Incrementalism through
Extended Coercion – interwoven with strands of suspense, suspicion, surprise
and coercion is quite propitious – and “Salami Slicing”. Let none in
India suffer from any illusions on the above count.
The PLA current policy is a follow through of three stages of revolutionary war –
strategic retreat, strategic stalemate and strategic offensive. Thus, the
present rapprochement for disengagement needs to be viewed with circumspection
as strategic retraction borne out of stalemate for a more opportune time to
launch strategic offensive.
On usual and scripted lines following bilateral diplomatic
engagement – Special Representatives Talks – it appears all “hunky-dory”: “Both
sides agreed to strengthen communication through the mechanism of the Special
Representatives’ Meeting, hold Meetings of the Working Mechanism for
Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs without
interruption, consistently improve and strengthen confidence-building measures
and prevent more incidents that undermine peace and tranquility in the border
areas.”
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese State
Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to each other and agreed “to
ensure at the earliest complete disengagement of troops along the LAC” and
“ensure a phased and stepwise de-escalation” from India-China border areas for
full restoration of peace and tranquility”.
The four areas of de-escalation include: PP 14 (Galwan), PP
15 (Hot Spring), PP 17 A (Gogra) and the Pangong Tso lake area (Fingers
4-8). The PLAs disengagement from
“Fingers 4 to 8) will be the real proof at the tactical level. “Buffer Zones”,
reduction of size of patrols and troops close to the LAC also to be
implemented.
What about the strategic or theater operational art level -
“disengagement of troops along the LAC”? After all, 2 Mountain Divisions of the
Tibet Military Region and the Combined Arms Brigades have been mobilized and
deployed as strike formations in their forward postures or bases poised to
launch offensive strikes. Also, it must
include the Air Force units to include fighters, helicopters, drones and other force
multipliers.
Very little intelligence is in public domain concerning PLA
postures in Central and Eastern Theaters to include Naku La in Sikkim. Thus, to
view the above agreement as a great breakthrough mercilessly exposes blinkered
or myopic view of geopolitics and mid and long term strategic affairs.
If “Differences should not become Disputes”, then not only
“de-escalation” at the LAC, but also “disengagement” of all strike forces
deployed in “offensive launch pads” must revert to their peace time stations –
to usher real peace and tranquility at the LAC.
So, what are the lessons to be culled out from the recent
developments? No need to convene a “Committee or Commission”. Experts have been
highlighting the key requirements time and again in all dimensions on the
visual and print media to include:
v
Intelligence – Satellite coverage 24x365 by
dedicated military satellites of the Indo-Tibet border; need for instant flow
of intelligence from nations with whom agreements exist; and forge partnerships
with other nations for sharing of intelligence.
v
Hard Power (Security Forces) Reforms:
Ø
Indo-Tibet Border Guarding Forces:
§
ITBP (60 Battalions) to be converted as two
Infantry Regiments each with 30 battalions (under the Indian Army Ministry of
Defense) and designated as Ladakh Regiment and Arunachal Regiment.
§
SSB (73 Battalions) to continue under the
Ministry of Home to guard the Himachal and Sikkim-Indo-Tibet Border, UP-Nepal
Border and Indo-Myanmar border.
§
Reassign and Redeploy over 40 Assam Rifles
Battalions to guard the Arunachal Pradesh-Tibet border instead of ITBP under
the Indian Army;
§
Recruitment to the Ladakh and Arunachal
Regiments from locals due to their high altitude warfare compatibility; and,
§
organize local guerilla/militia groups along the
Indo-Tibet border:
Ø
Indian
Army:
§
Present 17 Corps designated as Mountain Corps to
be located in Northern Command and integral Task Forces Divisions located in
Leh and at suitable location on Manali-Leh Road (through Rohtang Pass).
§
Raising of Second Mountain Corps by regrouping
for Eastern Theater to be located in mountains.
§
Fast tracked indigenous production of guns and
long range ammunition.
Ø
Tri-Service Command, A & N Islands: Immediate development of Campbell Bay and Nan
cowry islands as Air Force and Naval bases for SU30MKI/TEJAS and Submarines
with Surface to Air Missiles and Brahmos Shore-to Ship based missiles.
Ø
Air Force:
§
Fast paced indigenous production of SU-30MI,
Rafael’s, Tejas MK1A and Mk2 by round the clock work; and design and
development of Stealth fighters pending which acquisition of F-35s.
§
Fast tracked acquisition of S-400 Missile
Systems from Russia and deployment in Ladakh.
§
Indigenous production of ASTRA and Brahmos BVVRM
missiles for jet fighters.
Ø
Navy: Fast paced indigenous production of
submarines and other ships on order.
The list is suggestive for expeditious action by the
political hierarchy; and not all inclusive.
Financial constraints cannot anymore delay them. Even the three services of the Armed Forces
must impose “Ban/Freeze” under the Head of “Major/Minor Works” like buildings,
roads and compound walls to save every single rupee to meet operational needs.
What about strict austerity to be observed by the Presidents
Estate, PMs and other VIP entourage extravaganza, and the Chief Ministers and
State Governments outrageous expenditures on high-fly projects. The States too
have to observe strict control over financial extravaganza for the sake of
modernizing armed forces.
Social Power: Criticism by the opposition parties
highlighting frivolous reasons in times of “War-like” situation on the borders
is contra national unity. To stem the
rot of internal social divide, the ruling party may like to convene the
Parliament session and discuss in detail the present situation and the details
of projected requirements. Also, there
is a need to counter effectively the “influence operations” carried out by
adversaries.
Economic Power: The temporary ban on trade, particularly on
the “Digital Front”, may appear quite insignificant; but when viewed in the
overall context of trade war against China by the US, Japan, and others, it is
quite rattling for China. In no way,
Modi led NDA should lift the ‘bans or restrictions” on trade. Instead, the
ruling regime must encourage and financially aid local trade agencies and start
ups to actively enhance their capabilities.
Technology Power:
India remains a laggard although claiming to be having a “large
scientist pool” of young qualified personnel.
Departments like the ISRO, DRDO, IIS, IITs and other institutions must
in cooperation with private enterprises must design, develop and indigenously
produce high-tech innovations in all fields.
No use in boasting to be a “Software Power”, when the country stands outsmarted
by the Chinese counterparts.
Finally, political will expressed episodically is certainly
good, particularly to boost the morale of the troops on the front line, but
needs to be matched expeditiously by breakthroughs in all other variables of national
power. The critical Chinese Center of Gravity lies in the Andaman and Nicobar
Island region straddling the Great Channel through which nearly 80 percent
Chinese trade transits. Rapid military infrastructure development is of utmost
significance.
It is also high time for Modi to personally visit all
science and technology units to ascertain their status and direct them to
deliver on ‘time-bound” basis. After
all, today we are living in “Technology Age”. Unless the scientists innovate,
design and deliver in a time-bound manner and technologists accelerate the
transfer of technologies simultaneously to private partners, India will remain
a laggard which is contra national security interests.
Article
by Brig (Retd) G B Reddy Sir
gundreddi5@gmail.com
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