Rise of Islam – Trends of Growth of Population and Mosques in Western Countries - Article by GB Reddy Sir
In a long term context, say by 2100, the “Rise of Islam” globally may be real. The trends of growth are explicit and implicit of future probabilities. In the present context Islam may not be viewed as a threat, but in a long term context, its prospects may be distinct possibilities. The study of historic population growth and projected percentage by 2030 and the increasing numbers of Mosques and their trends in Western Countries is, therefore, vital.
Undeniably remarkable is the Muslim population growth since its origin in the 7th Century. From 3% in 700 AD, Muslim population has increased to 7% in 800 AD, to 11% in 900 AD, to 13% in 1000 AD, to 16% in 1700 AD, and to decrease to 13% in 1800 AD. Subsequently, its growth increased to 12.5% (200 million) in 1900 AD, to 15.6% (577 million) in 1970 AD, to 21% (1.292 billion) in 2000 AD, to 22.7% (1.635 billion) in 2013 AD, and to 26% (2 billion) in 2020 AD.
De facto, Islam is the fastest growing religion in the World. The young median age and high fertility rate of Muslims relative to other religious groups are significant factors behind Islam's population growth. Between 2015 and 2060, Muslim population is projected to increase by 70%. This compares with the 32% growth of world population during the same period.
Viewed in the projected growth rates, the Muslim population growth in the US is reviewed since 1900 which remained less than 0.01%. It then increased to 0.13% (205,157) in 1950 AD, to 0.49% 1,026,373) in 1970 AD, to 1.3% (2.983,095) in 1980 AD, to 1.57% (4,001,384) in 1990 AD, to 0.74% (5,008,454) in 2000 AD, to 2.20% (6,988,104) in 2010 AD, and to 2.28% (7,991,968) in 2020. By 2040, Muslims will replace Jews as the nation's second-largest religious group after Christians. Fallout of political ramifications will be real.
American Muslims are from various backgrounds to include: slaves from predominantly West African region, merchants, travelers and sailors - some 500,000 Africans between 1701 and 1800. But Islam was suppressed on plantations with nearly all enslaved Muslims and their descendants converted to Christianity during the 18th and 19th centuries. About 72% American Muslims are immigrants or "second generation". From the 1880s to 1914, several thousand Muslims migrated to the US from the territories of the Ottoman Empire and British India.
When the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, abolished immigration quotas, the Muslim population increased dramatically. Approximately 1.1 million Muslims migrated to the US with 1/3rd from North Africa and the Middle East, 1/3rd from South Asian countries, with the remaining 1/3rd from across the entire world. Immigration post-1965 favored those deemed to have specialized educational and skills. Also, the Muslim immigrants arrived in the late 20th century as refugees due to such reasons as political unrest, war, and famine. In 2005, more people from Muslim-majority countries became legal permanent US residents—nearly 96,000. In 2009, more than 115,000 Muslims became legal residents of the US.
As of 2020, New York has the highest absolute number of Muslims at over 724,000. By percentages of the population, Illinois, the State of New York, New Jersey, and Maryland hosted population concentrations greater than 3%. New Jersey has been nicknamed Little Ramallah and Little Istanbul. The Pew Research Center estimates about 73% of American Muslims are Sunni, while 16% are Shia; the remainder identify with neither group. 47% of respondents said they considered themselves Muslims first and Americans second. 54% of the American Muslim population is young adult Muslims (ages 18-34).
In April 2018, former President Donald Trump imposed a ban on Muslim immigration to America. The ban was immediately rescinded in 2021, when Joe Biden took office.
Mosques could be found in all 50 states of America. The first mosque building was in Maine – 1915. In 1921 the Highland Park Mosque was in Detroit, Michigan. In 1922 the Ahmadiyya Muslims built a mosque neighborhood of Chicago. In 1929, the Ross Masjid in North Dakota was founded by Syrian Muslims. In 1934 the first "purpose-built" mosque, the Mother Mosque of America, was built in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. As per the US data, the growth story of the mosques in the US include: more than 100 mosques by 1970; 962 in 1994; 1209 by 2000; 2,106 by 2010; and 2,769 by 2020. As per latest data, there are almost 3,000 mosques spread out across the US.
The highest number is in New York with 343. Mosques in towns and small cities declined from 20% in 2010 to 6% in 2020 due to the decrease of African American mosques.
Weekly Friday prayer averaged 410 attendees in 2020, as compared to 353 in 2010 -- a 16% increase. Almost three-fourths (72%) of mosques recorded a 10% or more increase in Jum’ah attendance. But conversions to Islam in mosques declined "dramatically." From 15.3 converts per mosque in 2010, the average number of converts in 2020 is 11.3. The primary reason is the decline in African American converts, especially in African American mosques.
Next in Canada, the number of Muslims changed from 3 in 1854 to 13 in 1871, to 47 in 1901, to 797 in 1911 AD, to 478 in 1921 AD, to 645 in 1931 AD. It then jumped to 1,800 or 0.01% in 1951 AD, to 5,800 or 0.03% in 1961 AD, to 33,430 or 0.16% in 1971 AD, to 98,160 or 0.40% in 1981 AD, to 579,645 in 2001 AD, to 1,053,945 in 2011 AD; and 1,775,715 in 2021 AD. The fertility rate for Muslims in Canada was higher than the rate for other Canadians (an average of 2.4 children per woman for Muslims in 2001, compared with 1.6 children per woman for other populations).
The fertility rate for Muslims in Canada was higher than the rate for other Canadians (an average of 2.4 children per woman for Muslims in 2001, compared with 1.6 children per woman for other populations in Canada).
Canada became an important place of refugees for those fleeing the Lebanese Civil War. However, Muslims migrated in significant numbers after the removal of European immigration preferences in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The 1990s saw Somali Muslims arrive in the wake of the Somali Civil War as well as Bosniaks fleeing the breakup of the former Yugoslavia. Muslims migrated to Canada for higher education, security, employment, and family reunification. Others have come for religious and political freedom, and safety and security.
There are a total of 759 Mosques in Canada as of September 24, 2023. The first Canadian mosque was constructed in Edmonton in 1938. The first mosque in Toronto was constructed in 1968. The first Madrasa in North America, Al-Rashid Islamic Institute was established in Cornwall, Ontario in 1983 to teach Hafiz and Ulama with focus on the Hanafi school of thought.
Next, Muslim population of England and Wales: 50,000 in 1961; 226,000 in 1971 (+352.0%); 553,000 in 1981 (+144.7%); 950,000 in 1991 (+71.8%0; 1,600,000 in 2001 (+68.4%); 2,706,066 in 2011 (+69.1%); and 3,868,133 in 201 (+42.9%). According to the recent census data, the Muslim population has increased by 44% over the last decade. 3.9 million Muslims are now living in London, up from 4.9% to 6.5%.
In the UK, Islam is the second-largest religion. As per 2021 Census, the population of Muslims in England and Wales is 6.5%. London has the greatest population of Muslims. The vast majority of Muslims in the UK adhere to Sunni Islam, while smaller numbers are Shia Islam.
Lascars (sailors) recruited from the Indian subcontinent – 10,000 between 1803 and 1813 – were the first group of Muslims to come to Great Britain to work for the East India Company on British ships. Some of them settled down and took local wives. Throughout the early 19th century lascars visited Britain at a rate of 1,000 every year, which increased to a rate of 10,000 to 12,000 every year throughout the late 19th century. Large-scale immigration of Muslims to Britain began after World Wars I and II, as a result of the destruction and labor shortages caused by the war. Muslim migrants from former British colonies were recruited in large numbers by government and businesses to rebuild the country.
Muslims are playing an increasingly prominent role in political life. The majority of British Muslims vote for the Labour Party. Muslim political parties in Britain include: the People's Justice Party (UK), a Pakistani and Kashmiri party that won city council seats in Manchester in the 2000s; and the unsuccessful Islamic Party of Britain, an Islamist party in Bradford in the 1990s. In the 2017 general election, 15 Muslim MPs (12 Labor and 3 Conservative) were elected, up from 13 Muslim MPs in 2015 general election. In the 2019 general election, a record number of 19 Muslim MPs were elected (15 Labor and 4 Conservative). There are nineteen Muslim peers in the House of Lords.
British Asians (both Muslim and non-Muslim) faced increased discrimination following Powell's Rivers of Blood speech and the establishment of the National Front in the late 1960s. British Pakistani and British Bangladeshi activists began a number of anti-racist Asian youth movements in the 1970s and 1980s, including the Bradford Youth Movement in 1977, the Bangladeshi Youth Movement following the murder of Altab Ali in 1978, and the Newham Youth Movement following the murder of Akhtar Ali Baig in 1980.
There are an estimated 1,500 mosques in UK. The Fazl Mosque, also known as The London Mosque, is the first purpose-built mosque, which was inaugurated on 23 October 1926 in Southfields. Majority of Mosques are converted houses or other adapted buildings.
Finally, Islam in Europe is the second largest religion after Christianity. A Pew Research Center study, published in January 2011, forecast an increase of Muslims in European population from 6% in 2010 to 8% in 2030. The study also predicted that Muslim fertility rate in Europe would drop from 2.2 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2030. On the other hand, the non-Muslim fertility rate in Europe would increase from 1.5 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2030. In 2006, the conservative Christian historian Philip Jenkins wrote that by 2100, a Muslim population of about 25% of Europe's population was "probable". Another Pew study published in 2017 projected that in 2050 Muslims will be 14% under a "high" migration scenario.
Islam gained its first foothold in continental Europe from 711 onward, with the Umayyad conquest of Hispania. The Arabs renamed the land al-Andalus, which expanded to include the larger parts of what is now Portugal and Spain, excluding the northern highlands. In the 720s and 730s, Arab and Berber Muslim forces fought and raided north of the Pyrenees, well into what is now France, reaching as north as Tours, where they were eventually defeated and repelled by the Christian Franks in 732 to their Iberian and North African territories. From the 8th to the 15th centuries, Muslim states ruled parts of the Iberian Peninsula, southern Italy, southern France, and several Mediterranean islands, while in the East, incursions into a much reduced in territory and weakened Byzantine Empire continued.
The Emirate of Crete, a Muslim-ruled state and center of Muslim piratical activity that existed on the Mediterranean island of Crete from the late 820s until the Byzantine reconquest of the island in 961. The Emirate of Sicily existed on the eponymous island from 831 to 1091. Muslim Arabs and Berbers held onto Sicily and other regions of southern Italy until they were eventually defeated and expelled by the Christian Normans in 1072.
There are centuries-old Muslim communities in the Balkans, Caucasus, Crimea, and Volga region. Islam expanded into the Caucasus through the Muslim conquest of Persia in the 7th century. The Ottoman Empire further expanded into Southeastern Europe and consolidated its political power by invading and conquering huge portions of the Serbian Empire, Bulgarian Empire, and the remaining territories of the Byzantine Empire in the 14th and 15th centuries. The Muslim populations in these territories were either converted to Christianity or expelled by the end of the 15th century by the indigenous Christian rulers - Reconquista. Over the centuries, the Ottoman Empire gradually lost almost all of its European territories by 1922.
Islam spread in Eastern Europe via the conversion of the Volga Bulgars, Cuman-Kipchaks, and later the Golden Horde and its successor khanates, with its various Muslim populations called "Tatars" by the Russians. Historically significant Muslim populations in Europe include the Gorani, Torbeshi, Pomaks, Bosniaks, Muslim Albanians, Cham Albanians, Greek Muslims, Vallahades, Muslim Romani people, Balkan Turks, Turkish Cypriots, Cretan Turks, Yörüks, Volga Tatars, Crimean Tatars, Kazakhs, Gajals, and Megleno-Romanians.
The Nordic countries have differed in their approach to immigration. While Norway and Sweden used to have generous immigration policies, Denmark and Finland had more restricted immigration. Although both Denmark and Finland have experienced a significant increase in their immigrant populations between 2000 and 2020 (6.8% points in Denmark and 5.0% in Finland), Norway (11.9%) and Sweden (11.0%) have seen far greater relative increases.
Illegal immigration and asylum-seeking in Europe from outside the continent have been occurring since at least the 1990s. The largest groups were nationals of Morocco, Albania, India, Turkey and Pakistan. Muslim and their descendants are from the former colonies. In addition, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Belgium recruited Turkish and Moroccan guest workers beginning in the 1960s. Moroccan immigrants also began migrating substantially to Spain and Italy for work opportunities in the 1980s. In the Scandinavian countries of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, the bulk of non-Western immigrants are refugees and asylum seekers from the Middle East, East Africa, and other regions of the world arriving since the 1980s and 1990s. Increasing globalization has brought a population of students, professionals, and workers from all over the world into major European cities, most notably London, Paris, and Frankfurt. The introduction of the EU Blue Card in May 2009 has further increased the number of skilled professional immigrants from outside of the continent.
While the number of migrants was relatively small for years, it began to rise in 2013. In 2015, the number of asylum seekers increased substantially. However, the EU-Turkey deal enacted in March 2016 dramatically reduced this number, and anti-immigrant measures starting in 2017 by the Italian government further cut illegal immigration from the Mediterranean route. Nevertheless, 2.4 million non-EU migrants entered the EU in 2017.
There are a total of over 10,500 Mosques (Prayer Rooms excluded) in Europe as of September 24, 2023 to include: Germany - 2600; France - 2,300 with a further 200 to 250 planned; Bulgaria – 1200; Italy – 764; Netherlands - 432; Greece- <400; Portugal -33; Belgium - 330; Sweden - <50; Austria - <200; Switzerland - 260; Denmark – 170; Finland – 30-40; Norway – 120; and Bosnia Herzegovina – 1867.
Islam in Europe is often the subject of intense discussion and political controversies sparked by events such as Islamic terrorist attacks in European countries. The Satanic Verses controversy, the cartoons affair in Denmark, debates over Islamic dress, and growing support for right-wing populist movements and parties that view Muslims as a threat to indigenous European culture and liberal values. Such events have also fueled ongoing debates regarding the topics of globalization, multiculturalism, nativism, Islamophobia, relations between Muslims and other religious groups, and populist politics.
To sum up, an attempt has been made to record few key factors concerning the growth of Muslim populations among the Western Countries and their likely fallout. The political fallout is also glaringly obvious. The recent series of pro-Hamas/Palestine and anti-Jewish protests since the Oct. 7 reported from USA, Canada, UK, Ireland, Scotland, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Russia, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, among others are certainly indicative of future portends. And, there is slow but steady increase in the Muslim political clout among the Western countries. The trend analysis clearly highlights the vicious churning due to escalation of violence in pursuit of establishing the “Global Islamic Caliphate”.
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