Illegal Migration Influx – National Security Threat

 

Illegal Migration Influx – National Security Threat

India is besieged by a migration crisis due to open, porous borders, archaic laws, and population control policies. Ipso facto, migrations threaten social, political and economic equilibrium - contra national security interests.

There are over 4 types of migrations. An attempt has been made to provide a perspective covering two types, that is, illegal migrations across open and porous border migrations. An illegal immigrant is a foreigner who has entered India either without valid documents or who initially had a valid document, but overstayed beyond the permitted time, as per the general provisions of the Citizenship Act as amended in 2003. Such persons are not eligible for citizenship by registration or naturalisation. They are also liable to be imprisoned for 2–8 years and fined.

 According to Indian law, illegal immigrants are not refugees. Since India is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, the United Nations principle of non-refoulement and impediment to expulsion does not apply in India.

Ironic and paradoxical, that there are no reliable numbers on illegal immigrants available after 75-years of independence. As of 2015, about 5.2 million immigrants live in India: Bangladesh (3.2 million), Pakistan (1.1 million), Nepal (540,000) and Sri Lanka (160,000). As per official statements in the Parliament, their numbers differ:  12 million illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators, with West Bengal having the most with 5.7 million as per UPAs Sriprakash Jaiswal, Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, statement on 14 July 2004; 40 lakh illegal immigrants in Assam in 2018 as per Amit Shah; and recently, Kiren Rijiju, Minister of State for Home Affairs in the NDA rule has put the figure at around 20 million.

Next, refugees data in public domain include: Sri Lanka - 91,000 registered refugees as of 2023;  Afghanistan- more than 13,000 registered refugees and asylum-seekers by 2009; Bangladesh - only 12 refugees  as of mid-2023; Myanmar - 50,000–100,000 Burmese Chin illegal immigrants in Mizoram and Manipur and also in Delhi; and Myanmar -  40,000 Rohingyas seeking refuge as per Governments Affidavit in the Supreme Court spread across Assam, West Bengal, J & K and Hyderabad. The Afghanistan figures vary with the Afghan embassy in Delhi at around 30,000 families and 11,000 Afghan refugees registered with the UNHCR in India, mainly living in Delhi and bordering areas.

Religion-wise growth trends in sensitive states in the NE since 1951 are a major cause of concern. 

states	Religions	1951	1971	1991	2001	2011	2021
Assam	Hindu Muslim Christian	70.78 24.68 2.0	69.75 24.03 2.61	67.13 28.43 3.32	64.89 30.9 3.7	61.47 34.22 3.74	57 40 3.74
W.Bengal	Hindu Muslim Christian	78.45 19.85 0.70	78.11 20.46 0.59	74.22 23.61 0.57	72.47 25.25 0.64	70.54 26.86 0.72	70.54 27.01 0.72
Tripura	Hindu Muslim Christian	62.77 21.43 6.42	89.55 6.68 1.21	86.50 7.13 1.68	80.5 7.95 3.20	83.40 8.96 4.35	83.41 8.60
Manipur	Hindu Christian Muslim	62 11.84 6.44	58.97 26.03 6.61	57.67 34.11 7.27	52.0 41.29 8.8	41,39 41.29 8.40	41.39 41.29 8.40

Porous Border Migrations

During the Bangladesh Liberation War, at least 10 million Bangladeshis (80% of whom were Hindus) crossed into India illegally to seek refuge from widespread rape and genocide. Also, due to political and economic turmoil in the following decades, many Bangladeshis migrated to the border states of West Bengal and Assam. An analysis of the numbers by Roy revealed that on average around 91000 Bangladeshis illegally crossed over to India every year during the years 1981–1991. According to the 2001 census, 3,084,826 people in India came from Bangladesh.  As per 2011 census, from West Bengal alone 33, 448,472 people have migrated to other parts of India.  

In West Bengal, the share of Muslims that was 19.85% in 1951 is now at 27.01% in 2021. Hindu’s constituted 78.45% in 1951 and now stand at 70.54% in 2021.  As per data in 2011, Murshidabad with 66.88% (as against 55% in 1951), Malda with 51.27% (as against 37% in 1951) and Uttar Dinajpur with 50.92% are Muslim majority districts. Also, they constitute a significant majority in other districts to include: Birbhum with 37.06 percent; and South 24 Parganas with 35.57 percent. Add to them, four other districts above 25% to include Nadia with 26.76%, Cooch Behar with 26.54%,  Howrah with 26.20% and North 24 Parganas with 25.82%. Thus, Muslim minority vote banks govern poll outcomes.

In Assam, the share of Muslims that was 15.1% in 1901 increased to 24.68% in 1951 and stood at 40% as per 2021 Census data. Hindus share from 70.78% in 1951 is down to 57% in 2021. In 1951, all districts were Hindu Majority. By 2011, 9 out of 27 districts particularly bordering Bangladesh, have significant Muslim majority population (Over 50%): Dhubri - 79.67%; Barpeta - 70.74%; Darrang - 64.34%; Hailakandi - 60.31%; Goalpara - 57.52%; Karimganj - 56.36%; Nagaon - 55.36%; Morigaon - 52.56%; and Bongaigaon - 50.22%. Add to them, three districts have over 30% Muslim population to include: Cachar - 37.71%; Kamrup - 39.66%; and Nalbari - 35.96%. Kokrajhar district also closely follows with one-third Muslim population. In Kamrup, Muslims from 29% in 1951 to 39% in 2011 predicted to rise to 50% in 2061. In Cachar, from 38% in 1951 to 49% in 2011 and predicted to rise to more than 60% in 2061. As per reviews, by 2061, Hindus will fall below 50% of the total population in Assam. Thus, in short, Hindu demography in Assam is collapsing across all major Hindu groups, including Assamese and Bengalis.

Geographically, when viewed with the projected trends of Muslim growth, the writing of the course of history in long term context is explicit – inevitable merger of majority Muslim districts of West Bengal and Assam with Bangladesh based on politics currently on grand display over the CAA-NRC issues.

Next, in Tripura, the clash is between the indigenous tribes, Assamese Hindus and Bengali Hindus. In Meghalaya, the Christians increased from 21.67% in 1951 to 74.59% in 2021. And, the Hindu percentage is down from 41.21% in 1951 to 11.53% in 2021. And, in Mizoram, the Christians constitute 87.00% in 2021. The conversion of animists in these states is the result of “Inner Line Permit System” following Verrier Elwin’s, tribal activists, advice to Nehru. 

 Kerala

In Kerala Hindus constituted 68.5 percent as per the 1901 census which came down to 61 percent in 1951, 56.3 percent by 2001 and 54.73 percent by 2011; and would fall to 49.3 percent by 2051. Muslims constituted 18 percent in 1951, increased to 26.56 percent in 2011. And, Christians constituted 20 percent in 1951; and, down to 18.38 percent in 2011. According to a recent study carried out by Professor K. C. Zachariah of the Centre of Development Studies, by 2050, Muslims will form 35 percent of the state’s population and the Hindus will fall below the 50 percent mark. The percentage of Christians will be around 16 percent. Most important, Muslims are in significant numbers to influence outcome of elections in districts to include: Malappuram – 70.24%; Kozhikode – 39.24%; Kasargod – 37.24%; Kannur – 29.43%; Palakkad – 28.93%; and Wayanad – 28.65%.

Open Border Migrations - Nepal

Nepal, as per the bilateral Treaty of Peace And Friendship 1950, had an open border permitting Nepalese and Indians to travel and work across the border, and treated at par with the native citizens. However, there is a caveat. Nepalese citizens can cross the border into India with valid Nepalese identity documents: passport, citizenship certificate, Voter Id or limited validity photo-identity certificate issued by the Nepal mission. However, the majority of them cross without official Nepalese documents. So, they are illegal migrants. Neither the Home ministry, Police or even the Embassy of Nepal have a record of the number of migrants who live in India. According to reports of the 2001 census, roughly 50,000 Nepalese were said to be living in Delhi. A 1998 GEFONT (General Federation of Nepalese Trade Unions) report estimated that around 2.8 million Nepali migrants were in India.

What must be of grave concern is Nepal’s close alignment with China. China is also inducting Gorkhas into their army. The Indian Army has had Gorkha regiments from pre-Independence times. Dr Vikram Singh, former UP DGP stated “Now, it poses a security risk. What if among two brothers, one is working for the Red army and the other in the Indian Army? ” The case of Mirza Baig, a Nepali parliamentarian reported to be an ISI agent who had links with Dawood Ibrahim’s D-company is another example of the terror route to India via Nepal.   During his tenure as DGP, Dr Vikram Singh set up a special task force that exposed subversive activities with clinching evidence.

Open Border Migrations - Burma/Myanmar

The Burma Passport Rules of 1948 allowed indigenous populations of all the countries bordering Burma to travel to Burma without passports or permits, provided they lived within 40 km (25 mi) from the border. In 1950, India also amended its passport rules to allow the tribes people residing within 40 km around the border to travel to India and stay up to 72 hours. In 1968, India unilaterally introduced a permit system for travelling across the border. In 2004, following the growth of drug trafficking and arms smuggling, India reduced the travel limit to 16 km (9.9 mi) and allowed border crossing only through three designated points: Pangsau (Arunachal Pradesh), Moreh (Manipur) and Zokhawthar (Mizoram). On 11 May 2018, an Agreement on Land Border Crossing was signed by the two countries which authorized border passes for the residents of the two countries living within 16 km of the border, which they must carry at all times after crossing the border and stay on the other side for up to 14 days.

In January 2024, amidst ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur, the Government of India signaled that it intends to terminate the free movement regime amid allegations from the Government of Manipur that it was facing problems of illegal immigration, drug peddling and arms smuggling. The proposal was opposed by the Government of Mizoram, and civil society organizations in Manipur and Nagaland. Nevertheless, the Government of India suspended the FMR on February 8, 2024, pending negotiation with Myanmar on eventual termination. In Lungwa Village of Mon District in Nagaland located on the Patkoi Range, Konyak families eat meals on the Indian side of the border and sleep on the Myanmar side.

Open Border Migrations – Nagaland and  Manipur

In Nagaland, the Christians increased from 46.05% in 1951 to 87.93% in 2011. Whereas in the case of Manipur, the clash is between Hindu Meitei’s and Christian Tangkhul Nagas and  Kuki-Zo. The Kukis are a very widely spread tribe elsewhere known as Chin or Mizos. The Kukis claim that the areas in which they are residing are their ancestral land and they had opened it for Zeliangrong Nagas to settle in return for taxes and tributes after they were driven out by the Sukte Poi and Lushai people of Chin Hills and present day Mizoram. Due to Myanmar military junta crackdown across the border, reportedly kuki-Zo and Chin tribes have crossed the border and settled in the NE.

Political Patronage

Once across the borders, illegal migrants gain ready access to political patronage due to vote bank politics. The migrants travel by road changing several buses or by rail into interior India. Political parties vie with each other to provide illegal migrants with shelter, ration cards and enlistment in the voter’s list. Also, there are agents and community members who help them acquire Aadhaar cards. Its fallout is simple. Erstwhile majorities are turning into minorities in sensitive border-states. The ongoing Islamic Crescent’s conquest of Assam and West Bengal is real.

Laws

Indian nationality law is governed by the Citizenship Act, 1955 (Articles 5 to 11 (Part II) of the Constitution of India), which has been amended by the Citizenship (Amendment) Acts of 1986, 1992, 2003, 2005, 2015 and 2019.  And, the settlement policy for the less developed NE Hill States revolves around “Inner Line Permit”. Indian nationals are debarred from owning properties or carrying out economic activities. But, people belonging to restricted areas have full freedom to move and live in other regions. It is yet another ‘Great Indian Paradox’ or challenge to resolve in posterity.

Any Indian citizen can buy land and settle in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, except for a few restricted places in the Nicobar Islands. Indian Nationals need no permit to visit Andaman’s; however, visiting Tribal Areas of Andaman and Nicobar Districts is prohibited.

In 2005, the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act, 1983 was rejected by the Supreme Court of India which held that the act "has created the biggest hurdle and is the main impediment or barrier in the identification and deportation of illegal migrants." An exception was made in 2015 when the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 amended the Citizenship Act, 1955 for minority communities like Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, and Christian, Parsis who fled religious persecution from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan who were compelled to seek shelter in India on or before 31 December 2014 due to religious persecution or fear of religious persecution. They are not classified as illegal migrants and remain eligible for citizenship.

The National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) was first prepared based on the 1951 Census of India, but it was not maintained afterwards. The exercise to update it for the state of Assam was carried out via an order of the Supreme Court of India in the year 2013. The Government of India has announced its intention to recreate an NRC for the whole of India, but it has not yet been operationalised.  

Not to be left out of consideration is the irrefutable fact that the largest concentration – about 47% of all Muslims in India - live in the three states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar. Also, the Union Territory of Lakshadweep & Minicoy is completely Muslim.

Ramifications

The ramifications of illegal immigrants are multifaceted. The present multi-pronged approach to ensure effective surveillance and domination of land borders to check infiltration of illegal migrants to include border fencing, floodlighting, construction of border roads and establishment of border outposts, per se, cannot stop entry of illegal migrants. Even the mechanisms after their entry into interior areas need to be effectively enforced.

Next, the border areas adjoining India and Nepal are notorious for illegal trade to include: human trafficking, arms smuggling, narcotics trade and counterfeit currency. More critically, terrorists, Maoists and criminals cross the border quite easily.  “Border fencing and Work Permits” cannot stop illegal migrations, particularly in Riverine and jungle covered mountainous terrain conditions.

Holistically viewed, illegal Muslim migrations wreck havoc on subtle societal equilibrium forged over centuries of co-existence. Being low quality human resources, they have no respect for population control. Until illegal migrations are halted, identity crises, communal violence, eradication of poverty and illiteracy may remain enigmas.

Furthermore, Christian religion has spread and consolidated in the Mongoloid Northeast. Consequently, the Mongoloid people of the Northeast have every reason to view an outsider's entry as a threat to their own future security and suffer from “identity crisis” syndrome. The mix of race with religion has dangerous portends in posterity.

To sum, illegal migrations of all types constitute national security threats. Political parties in pursuit of power by hook or crook have failed to address the twin threats arising out developments in the Northeast: Muslim majorities in Assam and West Bengal; and near complete Baptization of three hill states.  It is high time to issue citizenship ID cards nationwide to permanent citizens and maintain the “NRC”.