There is all round concern for the
extraordinary flux of international security environment that portends dynamic
shifts in the international order – political, economic and financial.
Prior to
the outbreak of COVID-19, experts were reviewing and analyzing the likelihood
of shift from unipolarity to bipolarity and multipolarity due to China’s rise,
Russia’s resurgence, “America First, Make America Great Again, and Sharing the
Burden” policy of US.
In the past, resurgence of Russia and
rise of China was viewed with circumspection. Donald Trump’s slogan “America
First and Make America Great Again” got hinged to it. Consequently, tremendous
uncertainty loomed large in international security environment. Due to USAs
reluctance to bear the burden of global policemen role, none ruled out the
possibility of transition to multipolarity.
Now, COVID-19, the fourth major
geopolitical shock in as many decades - Cold war ending, 2001 – 9/11 and 2008 economic recession and
the latest Covid-19. Analysts and leaders grossly underestimated the long-term
impact on their society and on world politics in the first three shocks.
Following the outbreak Covid-19 pandemic, there is extraordinary
unpredictability of outcomes in all dimensions of international and national
security. How will the Covid-19 pandemic reshape geopolitics? Not so easy to
reach well considered the long-term
strategic implications. Experts differ with divergent views. So, it is well
nigh impossible to draw credible conclusions.
Post
COVID-Pandemic International Order
The war
against the COVID-19 has just begun. Crises in health and economy are real.
Already, political, social and economic systems are under tremendous stress and
strain. Both USA and China, two most powerful countries, are blaming each other
over the causes of the pandemic and the blame for the global destruction it is
causing. These arguments are likely to lead to negative-sum outcomes for both
countries. The more the pandemic spreads
and devastates economies, the more that all countries will suffer.
Experts believe
that there will be major changes in the international order. A wide variety of
views are in circulation -
·
Role of the UN and WHO diminished and
irrelevant.
·
End of
an era of globalization.
·
China
may surpass the U.S. as a global power. Accelerate a shift from U.S.-centric
globalization to a more China-centric globalization.
·
Failure of U.S.
political and diplomatic leadership could cost the U.S. in international
influence. As per analysts, "Many of the United States' closest allies and
partners are dismayed by the U.S. approach to COVID and by Washington's
unwillingness to lead the world through this historic crisis."
·
As per IMF, world economy is already under
recession. Forecast worse than the Great Depression of 1930s. Growth is bound
to decline and shrink. Normal economy may never revert back. Many jobs lost
will never return. Thriving supply chains may never recover. Tourism is bound
to decline substantially in short term context. Zero economic growth in many
nations is quite likely. Recovery will be slow in the beginning; but pick up by
the final quarter of 2020-2021 quarter. Doomsday scenario is absurd.
·
International
order is set to alter. Likely scenarios:
Ø Intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition
but no major reorientation of major powers.
Ø Resurgent American leadership and
multilateral institution-building.
Ø
Regional revisionist powers consolidate their
positions at the expense of China in Asia, Russia in Central and Eastern
Europe, and Iran in the Gulf thereby allowing American dominance to continue as
hither to fore.
Ø Status quo ante.
One thing
is certain that hawkish would remain the international geo political landscape
with crisis hotspots spread all over.
Following Trump’s unpredictability on
the foreign policy front, former strategic allies of USA are in dilemma. NATO
allies cannot anymore depend on the USA to militarily defend them from Russian
aggression. Similarly, even the SEATO and ANJUS allies in the Asia-Pacific
region also cannot depend on the USA to militarily defend from emerging Chinese
threat concerns.
In a significant shift in stated
postures in the past, Trump unleashed cruise missile salvo to warn Assad regime
in Syria to degrade and dissuade from alleged ‘Chemical Bomb” strikes on
civilians in rebel held areas. With Trump ordering cruise missile strikes
against Syria under the advice of his National Security Advisor and Defense
Secretary – both former Generals – there is reversal to old Republican view of
USAs role in international affairs. But, what are the ‘end objectives’ in Syria
and Iraq and overall strategy to accomplish them?
What next? Who will make the next
decisive move on the Syrian front? A one-off strike certainly would not deter
Russian backed Assad regime in Syria. Sanctions, per se, would only be
cosmetic.
Even Assad would not be deterred to
retract from his military operations against the rebel forces. If any, the USA
cruise missile strikes have further derailed the “peace process” to resolve the
Syrian Civil War crisis? Iran too would not broker a treaty based on Assad’s
removal.
Putin on expected lines condemned
unilateral military action by USA as an “act of aggression against a Sovereign
country contrary to international laws and suspended the “Anti Conflict
Agreement”; and with China rallying behind Russia.
Not to be left behind, Russia too is
aggressively attempting to re-establish its influence and dominance in West
Asia, Eurasia and Baltic’s (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and also in Balkans
to secure its national interests.
Ipso facto, in pursuit of securing
national interests, China is flexing its military muscles in the North, East
and South China Seas and wants to be treated with equal respect by the US.
However, China does not want to enter into military conflict with the USA as of
now in the Pacific region even beyond the Second Island Chain. It is
deliberately implementing the strategy of “creeping Incrementalism and extended
coercion” to assert its dominance not only in its spheres of influence on its
periphery but also in spheres of interests on the global plane.
On the domestic scene, all three big
leaders – Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China and Donald Trump in USA – are facing
internal crises for which they are no easy escape routes.
In such a vexatious internal
environment, the easy escape route is to win on external fronts in the name of
protecting vital national security interests. It is the usual way to polarize
society to ward off internal adversary threat concerns. But, it is easier said
than done for status quo power like India.
Trump is generally viewed with
tremendous skepticism among the foreign policy establishments not only in the
USA but elsewhere in the world. As per USA experts, Trump is unpredictable,
reckless, egocentric, petulant and megalomaniac narcissist. Trump is viewed as
obsessed with his own fame, wealth and success; and his determination to
vanquish enemies real and imagined, his craving for adulation are real. At the
first opportunity Trump has reversed his earlier stand "My job is not to
represent the world. My job is to represent the United States of America."
In contrast, Putin and Xi Jinping, his
main rivals, are quite adept in use of soft power on the basis of long term
deliberative strategic thinking and excel in outwitting others sitting across
the table. They will not be cowed down by arms twisting tactics.
In India’s
domestic scene, internal political crises are simmering under the surface. No
sooner the health crisis is overcome, an all out political war – blame games -
is bound to breakout. After all, social
safety nets may head for virtual shocks. Stimulus spending cannot be stretched
beyond limits. Foreign investment may
stop flowing. Remittances from NRIs will almost stop. Tourism is unlikely to
recover. Commodities demand may dwindle as the world economy grinds to a halt. Rupee
value is losing traction against the dollar, and the cost of imported goods is
rising rapidly. An early estimate by the Asian Development Bank, soon after the
epidemic declared that it would cost the Indian economy $29.9 billion. A recent
industry estimate pegs the cost of the lockdown at around $120 billion or 4% of
India’s GDP. In sum, financial crisis is a distinct prospect.
How India
will emerge out of the COVID-19 Pandemic War on the international scene is
difficult to predict – badly bruised or maintain its current status of “swing
power” or emerge as dominant regional power, which will ultimately depend on
the current leadership sagacity to steer its course on even keel despite
internal political vicious politics. All
one can with circumspection is that the country is in the safe hands of
Modi-led hierarchy.
Viewed in such an evolving framework,
India as the “swing power” yet to genuinely gain “real regional power” status
is caught in a strategic dilemma. In such an unpredictable scenario, the best
option is to opt for “strategic silence” instead of estranging one or the
other. As a “Swing” power, India must dexterously play the “strategic trapeze
or tango” in the rapidly altering international order.
gundreddi5@gmail.com
0 Comments