On predictable lines politics
over “Lives vs. Livelihoods” over the issue of “lockdown restrictions” has
erupted on the visual media channels. The current countrywide lockdown, set to
end on May 17, 2020; but with guidelines specified for various zones.
For a balanced
perspective, the COVID-19 -Timeline Key Milestones include: 31 December 2019 –
First WHO Report; 4 January 2020 – WHO report on social media about a cluster
of pneumonia cases in Wuhan; 12 January
– China shared genetic sequence of COVID-19; 30 January 2020 – DG, WHO
declared the novel coronavirus outbreak
(2019-nCoV) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC); 11
March 2020 - WHO made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a
pandemic. Donald Trump visited India on 24 & 25 February 2020.
The first case
of COVID-19 was reported in Kerala on 30 January 2020.
Modi’s first
address – Janata Curfew on 22 March - was on 19 March 2020. First three-week national lockdown was
declared from midnight 23/24 March 2020. On 14 April, it was further extended
up to 3 May 2020. Now, it stands extended up to 17 May 2020.
The present
national lockdown was imposed under DM Act as per Order dated 24-03-2020 of
NDMA ‘to take measures for ensuring social distancing so as to prevent the
spread of COVID 19’ (S 6(2)(i)). Additional guidelines were issued subsequently
by the Ministry of Home Affairs.
In the seventh
week of lockdown due to COVID-19, based on a scientific method, districts have
been categorized under “Red, Orange and Green” labels. It was also highlighted by the spokesperson
that the Model is dynamic one and will be modified based on specific criteria.
And, the “Guidelines” to be followed have been specified.
COVID-19 has, to
date, affected nearly 40,000 people and over 1,300 dead as on 3 May 2020 after
41 days since the lockdown. Some believe that the data does not represent the
real picture. It is more widespread than reported attributable to lack of
testing and asymptomatic cases. Many people may be infected; but they may not
know it. Medical experts highlight that
antibodies testing must be done to determine the real numbers. Also, the death
rates reported do not represent the reality.
Even then, based on statistical analysis of
data, it is difficult to decide on when to lift the restrictions and in what
stages.
Let me highlight
that State governments have also enough legal power in dealing with this
biological disasters. Taking cue from
the ‘Containment Plan for Large Outbreaks (COVID 19)’ issued by the Union
Ministry of Health & Family Welfare which is the Nodal Ministry for
biological disaster, several states have issued COVID specific Regulations.
It may be noted
that “Public Health” is under the State List. States are on the front lines of the
pandemic. State Governments have the powers to enact “lockdown” restrictions or
relaxations considered essential. Thus, the imperative is for collaboration and
cooperation between the Central and State governments.
The Chief
Ministers must exercise their powers as per situational requirements keeping
the “Guidelines” issued by the Central Government as the basis to incrementally
lift restrictions in various fields. Surely, the States can modify or reject
them depending on the prevailing conditions.
Success of
effective implementation of the national and state decisions is dependent on
its ground level implementation; district administration and local
self-government institutions remains the best bet. As per mandate of DM Act (Ss
30 and 41), a concerted effort is required to ensure that these bodies are
administratively, politically and financially empowered.
So, all the
political cacophony in the media is unwarranted. Instead of blaming the Central
Government for either lives or livelihoods, the State Governments are equally
to be blamed, if not more.
To deal with extraordinary complex
situations, the corporate model needs to be followed and implemented:
decentralization and incrementalism. At the cost of reiteration, let me
highlight that even within the States it is best left to the District
authorities to take decisions appropriate to their prevailing situation with
the elected MPs/MLAs fully involved with the local administration.
Of course, Modi had stated in his first
address that “Jaan Hai Toh Jahaan Hai (only if there is life there will be
livelihood)”. In his next address, Modi stated ‘Jaan bhi Jahaan bhi (both,
lives and livelihood matter equally)." They constitute the conceptual
framework which is best left to the Chief Ministers wisdom to act.
Apex level
authorities in the Central Government recognize that “Lockdown”, if prolonged,
is likely to cripple Indian economy. Also, India cannot compare itself with
either the U.S. or China to provide financial support to millions of unemployed
poor: workers, shoppers and students cannot remain restricted to homes as a
precaution against spreading the virus.
The Central and
State Government’s face a “Hobson’s Choice”. To restart business and production
when the curve of the virus spread flattens only, which is not easy to
determine, is a “high risk” decision. At the same time, economic recovery
without risking more lives, particularly small and medium scale businesses, is
an imperative.
The issue that
needs to be squarely debated by economic experts now is “revival of economy”
more than the second slogan - ‘Jaan bhi Jahaan bhi (both, lives and livelihood
matter equally)." Already, Modi is seen interacting with his economic
advisers on how best to “revive the economy”. Now, politics and economics must take
over the center stage of narratives particularly in the visual media channels.
In retrospect,
the panic woven around the “Lives” matter over “Livelihoods” needs rethink. People
talk about economics as if it were a secondary thing. In retrospect, it is more
critical than lives or livelihoods. India is a developing country struggling to
emerge as a developed country. The deaths from shutdown and lockdown policies
will create (we are already in it) a devastating economic depression, which we
can ill afford. If we shut down the Indian economy,
it may almost certainly save lives from COVID. But, it cannot eliminate the persistence
of disease spread.
Be that as it
may, all those championing that “Lives” matter must revisit the data of number
of death on various counts and relate them to the deaths on account of
Covid-19. The basic data of annual deaths in India needs highlighting to gain a
balanced perspective. There are around 9.7 million people die every year in
India which comes to 26,800 per day approximately as per latest data of
population (death rate 7.3 per 1000).
The article that
appeared in The Print on 15 April 2020 is yet another panic button spread:
"Of these (nearly 200), 53 deaths were caused by exhaustion, hunger,
denial of medical care, or suicides due to lack of food or livelihood. At least
seven people were killed in violent crimes, such as people turning into
vigilantes and attacking others for violating the lockdown. Migrant laborers
wanting to return home were forced to walk hundreds of kilometres on highways
that speeding vehicles were expecting to be empty. At least 35 migrants were
accidentally run over. At least 40 people have died or committed suicide after
India shut all alcohol stores. Another 39 people have committed suicide because
they feared getting the Coronavirus infection, thanks to the panic created by
the lockdown, or because of loneliness or being quarantined. Yet another 21
deaths were caused for miscellaneous reasons."
Let me highlight
that the situation of starvation deaths differs from State to State. Many
hungry people live in countries with food surpluses, not food shortages. India
has enough food grain stock to supply to its citizens for more than 1 year.
Current stock of rice equals to 30.97 million metric tons, wheat stands at
27.52 million metric tons and un-milled paddy stood at 28.70 million metric
tons. The issue is, therefore, to ensure people who need food to have steady
access to it.
The existing
safety net for workers provided by the Central Government is uniformly
applicable. Of all of them, MGNREGS is a critical welfare program besides other
flagship programs of BJP. Quite a few populist schemes are in vogue covering
health care, pension plans and unemployment insurance reform and so on. The burden of providing financial succor to
jobless migrant labor is an imperative that will further erode the financial
state of both central and state governments. Poor will certainly take to
streets demanding the State to meet their day-to-day livelihood needs.
However, the
issue needs to be reviewed from two angles: urban vs. rural poor. For instance,
in rural India, according to the latest Periodic Labor Force Survey, one in two
people are self-employed; a term that risks masking their otherwise vulnerable
economic status. Each State government has its own set of populist measures to
address workers/BPL family’s welfare. For example, in Telangana a whopping
87.57 lakh eligible families, approximately 2,86,00,000 (2.68 crores out of
total population of 3.9 crores) beneficiaries, are being supplied rice at 6 kgs
per person at Re. 1 per kg without any ceiling on the number of members in the
family. To arrive at the eligibility of the BPL families, the family income
limit in rural areas has been increased to Rs. 1.50 lakh and in urban areas to
Rs. 2 lakh. The land ceiling has also been increased to 3.5 acres of wet land
and 7.5 acres of dry land.
On enquiry from
rural areas in Northern Telangana, there have been no deaths on account of
starvation reported recently. And, they are unlikely to occur since majority of
BPL families are covered under one populist scheme or another. In the urban are
Cyberabad, two homeless men died of alleged starvation and alcohol withdrawal
symptoms during the Covid-19 lockdown.
No dearth of eminent
economic experts in India like Amartya Sen, Abhijit Banerjee, Manmohan Singh,
Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Jagdish Bhagwati, P. Chidambaram, Arvind Panagariya,
Arvind Subramanian, Amit Mitra, Gita
Gopinath, Bibek Debroi, former RBI
Governors C. Rangarajan, Raghuram Rajan and Urjit Patel, Subramanian Swamy,
Surjit Bhalla, Rajiv Kumar, and so on.
Yet all of them
presided over the present economic mess or crises in India what with some
presiding over the “license Raj” and others presiding over the “Corruption
Regimes” in the past. Now the COVID-19 has given an opportunity to air their
views and spin their narratives around the issue of “Lives or Livelihoods”
depending on their political affiliations.
Indian economy
has almost certainly entered a contraction, if not already. With the exodus of
migrant labor, it is not easy to revive economic activities. Ipso facto, small and medium scale business
enterprises, and real estate, are the worst hit or on virtual breakdown due to
migrant labor exodus. The real challenge lies exactly in getting the migrant
labor back to their workplaces.
The scenes of
migrant labor forced by speculative rumors and lockdowns to walk hundreds of
miles home from India’s major cities and towns was most depressing. Migrant
labor is mostly linked to Small and medium scale businesses, and real estate.
The State administrations and also their “Employers” are squarely responsible
and accountable for their failure to prevent their exodus. Having been uncared
for in times of crisis, they are unlikely to return to their jobs in faraway
lands.
Small and medium
business establishments particularly family based establishment like “Tea
Stalls and Tiffin Centers” are the worst hit. They have gone virtually bankrupt
to restart their activities, rehire workers and reactivate supply chains in
order for the economy to rebound even after relaxation of lockdown “guidelines”.
The real critical
issues to address includes: 1) Early return of migrant labor to work places; 2)
Central government’s financial policies and effective implementation; and, 3) Labor
Law reforms concerning Migrant Labor.
As per media
data, overwhelming 120 million people or more are estimated to migrate from
rural areas to urban labor markets, industries and farms, which perform low
paying but vital work that are critical drivers of the economy. The biggest
challenge is to get them back to work places. Both the Central and State
governments must immediately provide suitable incentives and arrange their free
transportation to work places by
“Special Railway Trains and special convoys of buses of State Road
Transport Corporations to carry migrant workers from "the door of their
house to the gate of the factory.” If so, restrictions like keeping migrant
workers in “Quarantine” needs to be pragmatically reviewed at both ends.
Speed is the
essential parameter. The government machinery is well aware of the prudent
policies to be incrementally adopted. The
primary goal for fiscal policy should be to cushion the downward shock as much
as possible and set the conditions for the economy to bounce back. So, initial
Central Government and Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policies responses were
primarily aimed at cushioning the blow to households and firms.
Direct
Beneficiary transfers are good ways to provide needy succor to the real
beneficiaries. The Finance Minister, Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, had announced the
stimulus package, which is only the first installment – mostly welfare measure.
Also, the Government has provided relief to delay payments (tax filings,
student debt payments, and small business loan payments) as much as possible to
help households and firms through the most challenging months in the downturn.
The initial set of RBI announcements makes it easier and less expensive to
borrow, encouraging firms and consumers to accelerate investment and encourage
purchasing decisions. In addition, the
government also needs to accelerate payments to suppliers and vendors to
improve their cash flow during this difficult time.
To revive the
economy, both the Central and State governments must formulate a slew of
policies and campaigns meant to push people back to work, encourage business
confidence and protect as many companies from failing as possible. By
conservative estimates, the requirement is additional spending of
at least INR5 lakh crores to avoid full blown recession. Direct transfer to
BPL families is laudable until social distancing and other restrictions are
lifted. And, the World Bank announced US $. One billion loans. As per IMF Chief
Economist, Gita Gopinath, s India is spending around 1% of its GDP to combat
the economic impact of Covid-19, but emerging markets on average are spending
2.5%. So, India can spend more. Surely, Modi and his team of economic advisors
are well aware of the need to spend more incrementally by targeted financial
infusion; but not by squandering the scarce resources.
Finally,
Covid-19 has brought to limelight the real plight of migrant labor without
adequate protections left free to fend for themselves after 73 years of
democracy and socialism. In retrospect, the Central and State governments must
enact labor laws that must provide to them adequate ‘safety net’ like direct
payment of wages into their Bank Accounts based on minimum wages for various
skills, provident fund, medical facilities and health insurance, housing
provisions, ration cards and so on covering all aspects of their livelihoods.
Surely, they cannot be left to fend for themselves in a nation that prides
itself as “Welfare State”.
In sum, the real
challenge is revival of economy. There are no magic wands available to restore
it to pre-Covid-19 status. No need to endlessly decry and berate the government
machinery for its failure to redress the situation. After all, the nation
collectively is waging War against the Covid-19 pandemic. To recover from the
disruption and destruction to “lives, livelihoods and economy”, the collective
will of the nation is vital; but not demoralizing vituperative diatribe poured
endlessly against the current state of affairs.
Article by G B Reddy Sir
gundreddi5@gmail.com
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