COUNTERING RADICAL ISLAMIC SURGE: POST TALIBAN RULE IN AFGHANISTAN - INDIA FACES CONUNDRUM

 

COUNTERING RADICAL ISLAMIC SURGE: 

POST TALIBAN RULE IN AFGHANISTAN -

INDIA FACES CONUNDRUM

CONTENTS

Preface 3

 

1. Summary 5 

2. Implications of Taliban Rule in  Afghanistan - 9

3. Understanding Many Faces of Islam: Sufism to Islamist Radicalism 12

4. Enhancing Understanding of Islamist Radical Real Face 16

- Ideological Differences Within

5. Fastest Growing Religion – Islam 21

6. Understanding Root Causes for the Growth of Radical Islam 25

7. Growth of Islam in India 30

8. Holy Terror or Holy War 35

9. Understanding Psyche of the Radical Islamists 37

10. Surge of Radical Islamists 40

11. The Globalization of Islamic Terror - Technology Age Crusades 58

12. Fundamentalism, Communalism and Fascism 62

13. Nature of Religions -Secularism A Mirage 65

Preface

Hardliners - diehard radical Islamists - have taken over in Kabul. Tyranny is the new reality for Afghanistan’s people. But what about future portends worldwide?

Terror breeds Terror!

It must be remembered that religions always exercised unparalleled stranglehold and sway on the psyche of the People worldwide – their beliefs, ideas, ideals, motives, attitudes, perceptions, opinions and values.  It is, but, a natural process of all humanity. Experts cannot wish them away in a cavalier manner based on utopian, rational and idealistic views.

Dr Erich Fromm in his book “Fear of Freedom,/Escape from Freedom” explained that individual has to face several uncertainties and misfortunes in one’s life.  Therefore, individual often stands in the need of an entity more powerful than himself to give the necessary courage and psychological substance.  One such powerful entity is God.  The individual merges his separate identity into collectivity which then becomes for him the source of power required to face various vicissitudes of life.  

Christianity, Islam and even Sikh religions view religion from a  collective consciousness perspectives. However, traditionally Hindus viewed religion as an individual choice – a personal experience concerned with spirituality, cult, ritual and/or salvation.  

Mushrooming of Mosques, Churches, Mandirs and Guradwaras, therefore, reflect people’s obsession with Gods – greater the uncertainties of life, the deeper the faith in God.      

The ongoing population explosion compounded by Information Revolution is a reality. There is growing poverty and unemployment. Also, there is growing  awareness and raising expectations resulting in increasing frustrations and escalating uncertainties. No wonder,  narrow sectarian polarization based on castes or ethnicity or a combination is recurring phenomenon. People are rallying under whichever mix of religions offers better opportunities for them.  It is, but, a natural process to fulfill peoples aspirations, security and power. So, all religions are exploiting opportunities to consolidate their sway amongst the exploding numbers of peoples.

Most important, Edmund Burke had remarked "true religion is the foundation of the Society, the basis on which all true civilian government rests, and from which power derives its authority, laws, their efficacy and both their sanctions.  If it is once shaken by contempt, the whole fabric cannot be stable or lasting."  For KN Pannicker, an Indian scholar, no society can exist without coming to terms with its past.  In his view, the past in many ways is a living reality, an integral part of contemporary consciousness.  The foregoing clearly establishes intimate linkages between Gods, peoples, religions and the State with the past. However, changing socio-cultural-economic conditions automatically suggest the need to change to "New Society; and New State" - often contentious. 

In India's contemporary history, the cause of religious tensions and conflicts is commonly traced to freedom struggle.  Religion was used to arouse the spirit of nationalism and to rally the majority with some political leaders playing the ‘Hindu’ card.  It naturally led to counter rallying by Muslims under the banner of the Muslim League, but with many differences – not under Mullahs, but under educated elite.  Even the Sikhs attempted to assert themselves under the Akali Dal.  Followed the partition and the communal holocaust.  

The pre-independence Muslim political leadership, by and large, migrated to Pakistan.  And, the Muslim leaders who fermented communalization of freedom struggle remained in India after partition. Now, they are reasserting for what they consider to be their rightful place of pride, but with a difference – not under political leadership, but under the Mullahs.

Nehru is squarely responsible for adopting Dr Viewer Elwin's theory on preservation and promotion of exclusive tribal culture in the North East in 1950s and 1960s.  Not only, Christianity gained virtually dominant status in the Hill States of the Northeast but also  wiped out exclusive tribal culture. Its result is transformation to modern racial identity distinctly separate from the national mainstream and alienation. In retrospect, the North East has gained the core status for Christianity in the Mongoloid belt of East Asia. In sum, idealistic illusions and woeful strategic ignorance of our leaders laid the foundations for social divide and communal tensions.

 

Elites have found it very convenient to gain politico-socio-economic power by exploiting the religious factor - vote bank politics.  By themselves, elites alone are not to be blamed.  Even people are actively participating and colluding.  The strategies of all political parties, particularly Congress Party, are based on mobilization of masses to achieve political ends on religious lines.  It is because that they find it easy to rally people under the religious banner vis-à-vis, on other issues and ideologies.  Even the Media is acting as a catalyst to crises eruptions.  It is in such a context that the study of the growth of various religions, particularly to understand the many faces of Islam,  is considered essential.

Education and modernization should have promoted greater awareness of universality of God and automatically reduced peoples excessive obsession with religions and promoted tolerance so vital for the promotion of harmony in diversity.  But what we are witnessing is increasing polarization on religious lines and pauperization of religions – their politicization, criminalization and militarization.

Viewed in such evolutionary framework of religions,  it is vital to understand the basic philosophies of Islam, and their growth and influences on the psyche of radical Islamists and their end objectives.  

SUMMARY

The Taliban aided and assisted by Pakistan and ISI won the war and drove the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan. Jihad's around the world celebrated the Taliban’s victory. It  has raised fears that the country will once again become a safe haven for Islamist militants intent on perpetrating acts of international terrorism. Prospects of attracting recruits have brightened.  Al Qaeda, ISIS, and their various affiliates and allies remain active in civil wars around the world. Not only India but even other non-Muslim countries must learn to live with terrorist threats.

33-member all male Interim Government composed almost entirely of its old guard and with top posts going to hardliners has been installed. Hardly the Cabinet reflects ethnic diversity. Out of them, 17 individuals figure in the UN Security Council (UNSC) Consolidated Terrorist List. Of these 17, three belong to the Haqqani Network (HN) and four were Guantánamo detention center releases. Also, 13 members were part of the first Government between 1996 and 2001, at the Centre or at the Provincial level. 

For the Taliban, tolerance and secularism are utopia. Islamic fundamentalists and communalists are unlikely to relent and retract from their pristine form of religious ideology. Living in harmony with other religions is an impossible hope.  The severity of the threat posed by jihadi groups such as al Qaeda and ISIS depends on where you are. 

Experts perceptions vary over the latest Afghan outcome: Islam has lost the ideological appeal of establishing the "Global Caliphate based on fundamentalist Islamic society"; and its opposite - provides impetus to  jihadists worldwide in multiple theaters and countries to exploit opportunities to establish Islamic Emirates/Caliphates by driving out Western countries and apostates.

In retrospect, in "What form, When and How" radical Islamist challenges and threats may envelop exploiting the opportunities consequent to  "internal political and societal fault lines" in other countries is difficult to predict. The Taliban and its affiliates enjoy the luxury of opting for the best "Times", "Choices" and "Strategies". Mankind must learn to live with the radical Islamist challenges and threats in times to come.

Future is uncertain and unpredictable. Multiple threats from multiple sources to include lone wolf domestic terrorists may be real. 

The intra Islamic religious divide is real. There are many ideological fault lines in Islam - "Religion Par Excellence" - with over 70 sub sects pursuing different politico-socio-economic objectives at local, national, regional and international levels. 

Some Muslims postulate that political sovereignty belongs to God, that the Sharia equates to state law, and that it is a religious duty on all Muslims to create such a political entity. Muslims should guide social and political as well as personal life in conformity with the Islamic Sharia - both as a modern ideology and a political program. A few others believe that it is a whole body of thought which seeks to invest society with Islam which may be integrationist, but may also be traditionalist, reform-minded or even revolutionary. The key schools include:

• Wahhabism - doctrine is the uniqueness and unity of God; and Tawhid, not militant Jihad.  A puritanical movement intolerant to deviant coreligionists and other religions.

• Salafism - jihadist-Salafism is a transnational, hybrid religious-political ideology based on absolute monotheism seeking a global caliphate, who consider violent struggle as necessary to eradicate obstacles to restoring God's rule on Earth and defending the Muslim community, or Ummah, against infidels and apostates. Also, shuns against the secular world and Western cultural influences besides doctrines held by other Muslims – particularly Sufis and Shiites. Their ideas included the creation of a truly Islamic society under Sharia law, and the rejection of taqlid, the blind imitation of earlier authorities, which they believed deviated from the true messages of Islam. 

• Kharijites - oppose Sunni and Shia traditions. Only Allah could determine his successor and lets his will known in battle. Justifies right to revolt against any ruler who deviated from the path of the Prophet Mohammed.

• Muslim Brotherhood - Islam’s moral high ground would ultimately enable it to achieve success in a long-term context and there was no need to opt for violence.

• Qutubism - use of violence as legitimate to achieve the goals of Islamic revivalism.

Azzam and Osama Bin Laden followed in the footsteps of Qutubism.

• Khomeinism - not about restoring the Caliphate, but about establishing an Islamic state where the leading role was taken by Islamic jurists (Ulema).

The long-term strategic goal of the radical Islam is simple: establishment of the Global Islamic Caliphate. Followers draw inspiration from the basic tenet of the Quran: “Islam will deliver victory and success.” Most important, radical Islam manifests in two forms: intra Islamist struggle; and inter religious struggle on the global plane. 

Academics classify it as simultaneous clash between two civilizations – Islam and the West. It is also a clash between three civilizations between Stone Age Islam, moderate and liberal Islam, which is democratic and secular.  On reflection, it can be further enlarged as a clash between many civilizations (between Islam and Chinese; Islam and Hindu; and so on).   

  

Islam is the world's second-largest religion, with over 1.9 billion Muslims in 2021. It is also the world's fastest-growing religion. According to the U.S. Center for World Mission, the growth rate of Islam at 2.9% is higher than the 2.6% growth rate of the world's population. The percentage of Muslims in the world is growing @ 0.6% per year, probably accounting for about 30 percent of the world's population by 2025.

There are 54 nations with Muslims constituting more than 50% of population.  So, the struggle for supremacy between the moderates, fundamentalists and ultra conservatives may remain the biggest internal security challenge in other dominant Muslim majority nations, particularly in Pakistan and CAR nations. Furthermore, more than one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population, live in countries where Islam is not the majority religion. In the EU, Muslims are likely to emerge as a major force by 2051. They too could be vulnerable to radical Islamists surge in pursuit of establishing "Global Caliphate" that may plunge nations into utter chaos in long term context.

Majority of Muslims suffer from cumulative hurt psyche due to ‘Al Andalus syndrome", the “Crusades”, partition of India, 1948, 1965, 1971 wars and Kargil conflict, and defeats in 1948 Arab-Israel War, 1956 Suez War, 1967 Six Days War, 1970 War of Attrition, 1973 Yom Kippur War and 1982 Lebanon War, besides humiliation in Bosnia, Chechnya, Xinjiang, Iraq and Afghanistan. The relics and monuments in the Middle East and the Central Asia Republics remind them of their lost past glory of their Caliphates. Hence, their tryst with "Technology Age Crusades" in pursuit of Global Caliphate.

If the West and the rest classify radical Islamists struggles as "Holy Terror", Muslims firmly believe that they are waging Jihad - the Holy War".  Unless one first understands ‘Anatomy of Holy Terror or Holy Frenzy”, which is as old as history, one cannot wage war on "radical Islamist terror". 

Long term end objective of radicals is to establish Global Islamic Caliphate in three stages: 

• Stage 1 - Establish Islamic Caliphates in nations with Muslim majorities or areas under control;

• Stage 2 - Extend establishment of Islamic Caliphates to the neighboring regions, where demographic transitions are likely to alter in mid or long term contexts; and,

• Stage 3 -  Achieve the dream of the Global Islamic Caliphate beyond 2050 AD.  Meanwhile, take the conduct of the mega terrorism war where it hurts the most to the West - the US and the EU.

All radical Islamist terror groups are bound to exploit the opportunities available due to the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces and maintain the momentum in neighboring regional countries in Muslim dominated regions whose demographics, social and political conditions favor them to  establish Islamic Emirates.

Until date, the Taliban has failed to fulfill earlier statements and assurances to the international community that they would form a broad based inclusive government.  Also, it is premature to accept on face value its promise “to prevent any group or individual, including  Al Qaeda, from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the U.S. and its allies”.  It may be viewed as temporary strategic retreat. Temporarily, they may redeploy all other affiliates on the other side of the border in Pakistan. 

The danger of serious economic crisis is real with its foreign exchange reserves frozen by the US, assistance from the IMF/World Bank suspended and people facing food and cash shortages. To secure the flow of funds to avert an economic collapse, the Taliban may show  flexibility and deliver on promises, albeit temporarily. However, with aid flowing from China, Pakistan and other West Asian Muslim nations, the Taliban government may persist with its hard line posture.

Pakistan is most likely continue to deny aiding and assisting the Taliban and other terror groups. In reality, the Taliban and the HN are the brainchild of the ISI and its ‘veritable arms’. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the HN supremo, is the interim Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister.   Pakistan and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and as Daesh (ISIS) are also in alliance with Al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or Pakistan Taliban (TTP), TTP Pakistan Punjab, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM - Masood Azhar; Bhawalpur in Pakistan Punjab), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT -Hafiz Saeed;  Muridke in Pakistan Punjab), HuM,  Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and others. Ipso facto, all terror groups have been cooperating and collaborating to carryout joint operations as per episodic situational requirements under ISI guidance. At the same time, they have been brutally targeting each other on various occasions. 

Al Qaeda's affiliates - over 24 direct and indirect - with global reach may get boost. Even the ISIS footprint persists in over 17 countries.  Their rivalry may not weaken the jihadist threat. Instead it widens its scope.  Both the ISIS and Al Qaeda movements have complementary effects on the global jihadi Salafist network. They are both exploiting disenfranchised or disillusioned Sunni youth in the Middle East and abroad. They are both undermining the existing state system and contributing to expanding wars in the region. They are both normalizing the belief that violent jihad is necessary in order to defend the Sunni community globally. But, the real threat is from ISKP. The "Ghazwa e Hind" is the dream of 'Radical Islam'.

In sum, Islamist radicals view modernization based on secularism as a threat to their expansionist agenda. Tolerance essential to live in harmony with each other may remain a utopia for the Islamist radicals. Vicious inter and intra religious crisis proliferations may only escalate with ultraconservatives in all religions exacerbating conflicts. Thus, clash of civilizations will continue to haunt mankind. 

Implications of Taliban Rule in  Afghanistan -

Prepare for "Worst Contingency; but Pursue Peace opportunity"

The implications for India post Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is reviewed in broad outline. Of utmost importance is to recognize that the Afghanistan situation is extraordinarily complex, dynamic and fluid.  Based on the facts available through highly selective visual media and social media networks, one cannot accurately fathom likely forebodings.

Prepare for the "Worst Contingency; but Pursue Peace opportunity". 

As per reports, the war chest includes: Between 2003 and 2021,  382,128 rifles of different makes, more than 64,000 machine guns, 25,327 grenade launchers and 25,186 Humvees (all-terrain vehicles);  mortars, howitzers 162,000 pieces of communication equipment, and 16,000 night-vision goggle devices - game changer. Also, few helicopters, drones and fighter aircraft.

Most importantly, not only the Taliban but also its numerous affiliates have gained access to abandoned weapons. Whether they have been centrally collected or in possession of various groups is not easy to give a reasonable assessment. Suffice to highlight that they would all be used by different groups in times to come against their adversaries.

Of utmost significance to the Taliban regime in the immediate context is to ensure security and stability so vital for peace and progress. Can they achieve it in the light of internal contradictions arising out of power sharing?

Most critical challenge that the Taliban faces is economic implosion with the Banks closed, frozen World Bank and IMF funds and also freeze on financial assets by the U.S., EU and other nations.

However, the emergence of the Taliban-Pakistan-China-Turkey Axis holds dangerous portends in posterity. In particular, due to Chinese interests in exploiting the Belt Road Initiative and the trillion dollars mineral wealth. 

In an attempt to seek global recognition, the Taliban had promised a new, improved version of the group. But, the cabinet announced on 7 September 2021 after  three days consultations with the chief of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt General Faiz Hameed, clearly reflects Pakistan's imprint with the choice of the interim Afghan government.

Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, Afghanistan’s supreme authority, has instructed the interim government to protect the country’s highest interests, and to ensure “lasting peace, prosperity and development” and to uphold Islamic rules and Sharia law in Afghanistan.

Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund is the Prime minister.  Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the HN, a designated global terrorist, is the new Interior Minister with close ties with the ISI and al-Qaeda, based in Pakistan’s North Waziristan. He is a wily and dangerous enemy with American blood on his hands. Khalil Haqqani, the new Minister of Refugees (U.S. State Department reward of $ 5 million)  is the uncle of Sirajuddin. Mullah Taj Mir Jawad, who led the Kabul attack network, which organized the various Islamist jihadist groups, including al-Qaeda, in and around Kabul, is the deputy intelligence chief. The Doha Taliban group is sidelined. 20 of the 33 men in the new cabinet are from the Kandahar-based Taliban group and the HN.

To obtain international recognition, the Taliban needs to reign in all terrorist groups, who worked closely in collaboration with each other in the past two decades, like HN, Al Qaeda, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), JeM, LeT, TTP, etc., at least temporarily in the immediate context.  And, reigning in the ISKP is an uphill task. At best, many of them may retreat to Pakistan side safe havens.

Next, a brief review of prisoners released in recent times include: Post take-over of Kabul on 16/17 August 2021, several alleged Al-Qaeda and ISKP prisoners from Pul-e-Charkhi prison in Kabul released; in July 2021, over 5000 prisoners released belonging to al Qaeda, ISKP and also to al Qaeda from erstwhile former U.S. Bagdam Base jails; Prior to 15 August 2021,  most hardened prisoners released from Kandahar central jail; during 2020, over 5000 prisoners released by Ashraf Ghani government under pressure from the U.S.; and, the release of prisoners from other provincial capitals like Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Kunduz among many others.

The released prisoners of Al Qaeda, ISKP and others, who are at large,  certainly portends resurgence of terrorist activities within Afghanistan and spread to neighboring nations.  

Most important, currently Russia, China, Turkey and Iran besides Central Asian Republics and members of OIC  are also on "wait and watch" mode.  Even, Pakistan is cautious to accord official recognition for the Taliban regime despite extending full cooperation.

In reality, U.S. CIA, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan's ISI are responsible for  building-up HN by providing significant military and financial resources particular during the 1980s as part of the anti-Soviet resistance. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States had also provided significant financial support to HN.  Ipso facto, HN’s senior leadership enjoys very close relationship with Pakistan.

Following Sirajuddin Haqqani’s appointment as the interim Interior Minister, HN has obtained greater access to the Afghan Taliban’s resources, including narcotics trade.  In the Afghanistan-Pakistan region alone, HN’s vast array of front companies allows the group to launder illicit and licit proceeds across key business sectors, including import-export, real estate, car dealerships, telephone, construction, and weapons and natural resources smuggling.  HN has also expanded its kidnap-for-ransom campaigns of wealthy or influential Afghans.  

Viewed in the above framework of terrorist envelop or crucible,  the writing on the wall for India is quite clear what with the network of Al Qaeda in South Asia, ISIS, 36 militant groups in J & K and 13 militant groups in the Northeast available for build up in posterity.

However, Maulavi Mohammad Sher Abas Stanikzai recent offer provides a "window of opportunity" to keep the channels of communication open. Surely, the Taliban regime appreciates the value of befriending India due to its present status as President of UN Security Council. For their short term interests of gaining international recognition, the Taliban would certainly make an attempt to befriend India and seek renewal of development assistance. But, one needs to carefully watch the developments within the Taliban and the composition of their final Cabinet/High Council.  

On reflection, it is too premature to rush to conclusions. When even Pakistan, China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, OIC members are cautious to recognize the Taliban regime,  India too needs to carefully calibrate its diplomatic initiatives and seize opportunities to forge relations with the Taliban regime as and when it is considered appropriate. 

But, the Taliban and its affiliates enjoy the luxury of opting for the best "Times", "Choices" and "Strategies". 

Time and developments can alone show the course in "What form, When and How" challenges and threats may envelop exploiting the "internal political and societal fault lines" opportunities as they unfold.

So what? If so, India must prepare for the "Worst scenario".  And, the "Worst Scenario" is the Al Qaeda, ISKP, JeM, LeT and other groups gradual build-up, activation, reinforcement of all networks (sleeper cells) PAN-India wise, particularly in areas with Muslim majorities like the J & K, Assam, West Bengal etc., and go all out for crisis explosion and exploitation sector-cum-stage wise or simultaneously.

Mankind is transiting in the Kaliyug Age. Might is Right. There is no other alternative. 

The only way, therefore, to deter, dissuade and counter "Worst Scenario" is to seek opportunities to forge nations unity of purpose sinking ongoing vicious political differences exacerbating social divide thereby enhance capability to counter challenges and threats in posterity. Remember always that INTERNAL UNITY is most critical to wage 5 Gen war.  

 Nonetheless, be prepared to open channels of communication directly through negotiators - Track II diplomacy - or through Iran, Russia, Central Asiatic Republics or forge strategic partnerships. 

To sum up, future is uncertain and unpredictable. So, the relevance of  "Today's friends can be tomorrows enemies; and today's can be tomorrow's enemies". Self reliance is most critical. At the same time, forge strategic partnerships with those nations with converging interests. Keep open mind and formulate appropriate strategies to resolve the extraordinarily complex, dynamic and fluid crisis situation in Afghanistan. After all, the end objective of all alike in the immediate and short term context is neutral, stable and secure Afghanistan with guarantees and enforcement mechanisms in place that will prevent the use of the soil of Afghanistan by any group or individual against the security of regional and global nations. If so, one must keep all channels of communications open with the Taliban to rebuild friendly and cooperative relations whilst being on guard against challenges and threats posed by the Pakistan-ISI-Al Qaeda-ISKP-JeM-LeT-HuM and other terror groups.

Understanding Many Faces of Islam: Sufism to Islamist Radicalism

Islam's classical doctrine - religion "Par Excellence"  and rigorously monotheistic - is least understood by majority.  God is one and unique; he has no partner and no equal. Muslims believe that there are no intermediaries between the God and the creation.  Allah is the sole creator and sustainer; just and merciful; and, majestic and sovereign.  Muhammad is his prophet, and, also the last prophet. Islam repudiates and denounces "Trinitarianism -  the Christian belief that God is three persons in one substance" or, "Polytheism of Hinduism".  

The Arabic term “Islam: literally means surrender.  The believer called Muslim accepts “surrender to the Will of Allah”.  Allah is viewed as the unique God – Creator, sustainer and restorer of the world.  The will of Allah is made known through Qur’an, the book revealed by the God to his messenger – the Muhammad.  So, there is no God, but Allah, and Muhammad is His Prophet.  From the beginning, Prophet Muhammad had inculcated a sense of brotherhood and bond of faith amongst his followers.  The five pillars of Islam: pre-destination and blind faith; Salat (5 prayers); Zakat (Tax); Sawn (fasting in the month of Ramadan); and Haj (Pilgrimage).

In Islam, there is no church or priest or idol worship; neither orthodoxy or hierarchy; nor kingship or aristocracy; and castes or estates.  No privileges are permitted.  Power in Islam derives from the Allah and the faith, and not from the Sovereign people.  Since power belongs to Allah, it cannot be shared with others.  Hence, Islamic ideology is based on the need to defend/ protect its faith.  In sum, Islam is a total, living and dynamic politico-socio-economic ideology. 

As per Akbar S Ahmad of Pakistan: the Muslim ideal based on Qur’an and Sunna is al-adl (equilibrium) and al-ahsan (compassion); the Islamic Virtues are courage, generosity, cleanliness and piety; and the Islamic principles are Qiyas (analogical reasoning), ijtihad (independent judgment), Shura (consultation) and ijma (consensus).

During the formative stages, Islam, acquired its characteristic ethos as a religion uniting in itself both the spiritual and temporal aspects of life and seeking to regulate not only the individual relationship to God (through self consciousness), but human relationships in human setting (collective consciousness) also.  Thus, there is not only an Islamic religious institution, but also an Islamic Law, State and other institutions governing society. So in reality, Islam is the blue print of politico-socio-economic order.

Such is the pristine pure form of Islam which appears monolithic and awe inspiring.  Its concept of universalistic humanity and God transcending tribe, race color, and caste and class barriers is very attractive, particularly to the suppressed.  But what needs to be recognized is that it grew from a minuscule followership of 313 in 624 AD to the present status of 24.9% (1.907 billion) of world population.  More significant is its predicted futuristic rise beyond 30% surpassing Christian population alarmingly viewed by the Western World.

What is most significant is that Islam demonstrates five times a day its ability literally to move people – the most important channel of mass participation and impressive mobilization capabilities.

Al Jihad

Lack of understanding of the term "Jihad" by majority is real. It is derivative of the Arabic verb ‘Jahada’ which means ‘striving in the path of God’. By original conception of the Prophet, Jihad extends between the higher forms of Jihad (peaceful means for peaceful purposes) to the lower form of Jihad (violence).  

For example, Jihad al-lisan means striving of the tongue, Jihad al-Qalam means striving of the pen and Jihad al-tarbiya means striving through education; Jihad al-shatan means struggle against Satan; all representing higher forms of Jihad or peaceful and non-aggressive manifestations.  

Out of them is coined the term ‘Mujahid’ to mean ‘one who strives in the path of God’.  Its true interpretation, therefore, extends between ‘focus of personal striving against oneself’ to ‘against unbelievers and hypocrites’.

As per Majid Khadduri, an eminent Iraqi born scholar, “Jihad was the just war of Islam.  God commanded the believer to spread his Word and establish his Law and Justice over the world.  Religion, however, was and still is to be carried out by peaceful means, as there should be no compulsion in the spread of the word of God (Qur’an 2: 257)”.  But what about the interpretation of others or radicals. 

On the other hand, al-Jihad al-saghir, the lesser form of Jihad, represents or legitimizes all forms of strife with other human beings through war, violence and so on. Thus, the belief of radicals that Qur’an sanctifies terror before, during and after battle in the name of ‘striving in path of God’. Ironic, the term ‘Jihad’, unless qualified by suffixes, is commonly perceived as armed struggle or justified violence, inter alia ‘holy war’. And, the radicals overriding focus is on violence instead of  many  positive facets.  

Islamic scholar like Sayyid Qutab of Egypt held that “ultimately humankind as created by God is a single community where divinely intended unity had been seriously fractured by the time Islam came to the 7th century AD in Arabia.  Islam arose to restore human unity and bring peace to the World”.  So, the justification for violence and terror to spread Islam and the awe inspiring nature of ‘Jihad’ as understood commonly by a majority.

But the reality of Islam is also perplexing.  Over the centuries, it too has developed into a pluralistic philosophy or ideology. They are out of nearly 72 sects of Islam world over with important sects to include: Sunnism, Shi’ism, Kharjism, Mutaszileh, Sufism, Ismailis, Ahemidias and Black Muslims. Their internal cleavages are as multiplexing and perplexing as is the case with other religions. 

Some of the important sects in India are Sunni’s (spread all over India – 80%), Shia’s (mostly in Awad, Rampur, Muzaffarnagar in UP and Hyderabad – 20%).  Dawoodi Bohra’s (mostly in Bombay), Ismaili Khojjas (Aga Khan – mostly in Bombay), Memons (ex Brahmans and Lohanas of Sind and Kutch in Bombay), and Moplaha (Malayalee speaking Muslims who follow local customs and manners including matrilineal system besides being ignorant of Urdu).  

What is vital to understand is Muslims too differ in their beliefs, customs, traditions and culture based on their ethnic and cultural differences.  The differences vary from obscurantist, fundamentalist, reactionary to high order Sufism.  Consequently, intra religious tensions and conflicts even among the Muslims are also reported even from Pakistan.  

Many reasonable conclusions can be easily drawn as a result of the study. In the words of Gellner, “Islam is the blue print of social order”. However, "Classical Islam" too is a politico-religious ideology and theocratic not syncretic. Religion and politics are inseparable for the good Muslims. Blind faith and super alter ego (one Muslim is equal to 10 Kafirs) will continue to pre-dominate their psyche. But, it does provide a higher order religion for oppressed suppressed masses to gain equal status with others in society.     

Also, Sunni, Shia, Sufi and Ahemidias confrontations have also been frequent in the past and predictably will continue not-with-standing the promotion of Pan Islam.  Quite frequently annually, one hears in media that curfew is imposed in cities/ towns in Pakistan during Muhharum celebrations.  

Next, there are differing interpretations of Islamic nationalism. For example, political orders of all Arab nations differ and there are confrontations amongst themselves – Gulf War and Iran-Iraq conflicts being relevant examples.  Even within Pakistan there are wide divergences:  Bhutto’s Islamic socialism vs. Zia’s Islamic fundamentalism.  The diversity of Sindhi, Punjabi, Balochi, Pakhtoon, Kashmiri, Bengali, Assamese, Gujarati Marathi, Oriya, Andhra, Kannadiga, Tamil and Malayalee Muslims in the sub-continent is real, and, as diverse and complex as it exists when comparing Saudi Arabia with Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Uyghur's living in Xinjiang,  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and African countries. So, the confrontations between the rulers/ leaders and the Mullahs have always been endemic.  

In sum, Jihadism has evolved through multiple phases. The first phase—the inception—featured ideologues, such as Sayyid Qutub and his protégés, who were not  Salafi, promoted the exclusivist and violent rhetoric of “takfirism,” or excommunication of fellow Muslims. The second phase of cross-pollination featured twin phenomena with  the expulsion of Muslim Brothers from Arab states to Saudi Arabia or Kuwait: mix of theological rigor of Salafism with the political activism of the Brotherhood’s Islamism. At the same time, jihadism among other ideologies and movements was increasingly “Salafized” in the 1980s and 1990s combining  the use of violent tactics and the religious ideology. Many jihadists started to insist that only Salafi theology was legitimate, a position that put them at odds with the Brotherhood.

The third phase were spurred by historic events, including the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 and the first Gulf War in 1990–91, when hundreds of thousands of American troops were based in Saudi Arabia. Both military operations involved atheists, non-Muslims, or infidels deploying in Muslim lands. During the Gulf War, the Saudi Kingdom in particular was perceived as betraying Islam, sparking a movement known as the Awakening.

The fourth phase of realization featured bold attacks, such as the 9/11 spectaculars on the World Trade Center, and the emergence of jihadism as the top security threat facing the Western world. 

The fifth phase of crossroads occurred after the U.S. entered Iraq. It produced tectonic shifts in strategy, purpose, and identity among the jihadist groups. What drove fighters to join Osama bin Laden and the original Arab mujahedeen in Afghanistan in the late twentieth century often varies significantly from what drove people to join groups such as ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria or Iraq in the early twenty-first century. The current jihadi's are now part of a third generation. The latest generation is distinct from the earlier waves in several ways. In sheer numbers, each mobilization of foreign fighters has been larger than its predecessor. The growth is now exponential. Recruitment is likely to surge.

In sum, Islam’s diversity, many faceted, is such that it is well high impossible to retain the pristine form of either Saudi Arabian or Pakistani brand of Islam.  So, Islam is used in variety of ways for the achievement of widely different politico-socio-economic objectives at local, national, regional and international levels, both to preserve status-quo or to promote anti status-quo character of movements.  Oil as a weapon and the Islamic Bomb are to be viewed in such  context.  Its trans-national orientation offers opportunities and challenges to radical Islamists to exploit to achieve Islam's end objective - Islamic Global Caliphate through "Jihad".

Enhancing Understanding of Islamist Radical Real Face

- Ideological Differences Within

            A thorough understanding of the origins, growth and key schisms within Islam is critical to understand its past and present course to dissuade and counter the surge of radical Islamists post Taliban ascension to power in Kabul. Reiterating, Islam may claim to be monolithic religion; but, it has many faces. 

Radical Islamists blindly follow Prophet Muhammad. The Prophet, warlord, mass murderer and a pedophile, married several times - 11  marriages and two concubines. Islamic tradition glorifies how he fought in battles, how he had his enemies murdered and even had prisoners of war executed  including the slaughter of the Jewish tribe of Banu Qurayza.  Muhammad, aged 25, married his first wife aged 40. After her death with his age over 45, he also married Aisha, daughter of Abu Bakr of Mecca,  aged 6, and 9 others. Most of the women were either widows of Muslims killed in battle and had been left without a protector, or belonged to important families or clans with whom it was necessary to strengthen alliances.

            

Most important, the first battle for intra Islamic struggle for supremacy was between the partisans of the assassinated third Caliph, Uthman, who was Muhammad’s son-in-law through his marriage to his daughter Fatima, and the fourth Caliph, ‘Ali’. 

Sunni Islam claims to be the continuation of the Islam through the revelations given by the Prophet Muhammad. Sunnis believe that the Imam's impiousness, by itself, does not justify sedition. Shiites believed that the imamate (leadership) was the right of Ali.  This conflict ultimately led to the division between Sunni and Shia Islam.  The Sunnis and the Shiites, despite their differences, share three core doctrines – oneness of God, the belief in the revelations of Muhammad and the belief in resurrection on the Day of Judgment. 

Next, the root cause of radical Islam are the Kharijites concentrated in today's Southern Iraq. They refused to accept Ali as the fourth Khalifa and laid claims to Prophets legacy. The Kharijites believed that only God could determine who should be the proper successor, and God would let his will known in battle. They believe that  any Muslim could be a leader of the Muslim community. Also, the Kharijites insist on the right to revolt against any ruler who deviated from the path of the Prophet Mohammed and opposed with ferocity against Sunni and Shia traditions of Islam.   

Subsequently, whenever social conditions deviated from the rigid path,  a large number of ideologues interpreted Islam to reclaim the purity of the religion by conception. Ibn Taymiyyah, a Syrian Islamic jurist (13th-14th centuries), Sheikh Ahmad Sirhindi (1564–1624) in India, Muhammad ibn Abd-al-Wahhab (18th century) of Arabia and  Shah Waliullah of India, Sayyid Ahmad Barelvi, Jamal ad-din al-Afghani (1837–97), Muhammad Abduh (1849–1905) and Rashid Rida in Turkey gave differing interpretations of ideology of Islam. During the 20th Century, religious ideologues like Imam Al Hussein, Hasan al-Banna, Maulana Maududi, Sayyid Qutub, Abdul a-Salim Faraj, Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, Azzam and Bin Laden etc, have been in the forefront of “Islamic revivalism and reformation”.

The main schools of Islam include Wahhabism, Salafism, the Deobandi School, the Muslim Brotherhood, Qutubism and Khomeinism.  The common thread among them is their focus on purifying Islam from deviating from the path ordained by the Prophet and to reclaim its lost glory. Sunni has four major schools of jurisprudence – Hanbali, Hanafi, Maliki and Shafei. 

Wahhabism draws its inspiration from the preaching of Sheikh Muhammad Ibn Abdul al-Wahhab (18th century) Saudi Arabia. Ibn Abdul Wahhab was influenced by the writings of Ibn Taymiyyah. The primary doctrine of Wahhabism is Tawhid, or the uniqueness and unity of God. He preached against a "perceived moral decline and political weakness" in the Arabian Peninsula and condemned idolatry, the cult of saints, and shrine and tomb visitation.  Since it is a puritanical movement, it is intolerant to deviant coreligionists and other religions. It believes in Tawhid, not militant Jihad.

Next, Salafism followed the fall of the Muslim Ottoman Empire. Jamal ad-din al-Afghani (1837–97), Muhammad Abduh (1849–1905) and Rashid Rida (1865–1935) preached Islamic alternatives to the decline of the empire. Salafism believes in absolute monotheism and rejects practices such as worshiping the graves of Muslim prophets and leaders. Salafi jihadism or jihadist-Salafism is a transnational. Salafist’s hybrid religious-political ideology seeks a global caliphate, advocacy for "physical" (military) jihadism and Salafi concepts of returning to what adherents believe to be "true Islam". Salafist's consider violent struggle as necessary to eradicate obstacles to restoring God's rule on Earth and defending the Muslim community, or Ummah, against infidels and apostates. Also, it shuns the secular world and Western cultural influences and particularly doctrines of Sufis and Shiites. Their ideas includes the creation of a truly Islamic society under Sharia law, and the rejection of taqlid, the blind imitation of earlier authorities, which they believed deviated from the true messages of Islam. 

There is confusion over the terms "Wahhab" and "Salafi".  The terms "Wahhabism", "Salafi" (and also sometimes Ahle Hadith) are often used interchangeably, but Wahhabism has also been called "a particular orientation within Salafism", an orientation some consider ultra-conservative. For fundamentalists the law is the most essential component of Islam, leading to an overwhelming emphasis upon jurisprudence, usually narrowly conceived. 

 

            The Deobandi School emerged after the failure of the Indian Mutiny. Some of Shah Waliullah followers turned to peaceful methods of preserving the Islamic heritage and founded the Dar al-Ulum seminary in 1867 in the town of Deobandi near Pathankot in India.  The Deobandi movement became the largest philosophical movement of traditional Islamic thought. Sayyid Ahmad Barelvi (India) emphasized the `purification` of Islam from un-Islamic beliefs and practices. He aimed at modern Islamists leading a jihad movement and to create an Islamic state with strict enforcement of Islamic law. While he waged jihad against Sikhs in North-Western India, his followers fought the British during the Indian Mutiny. 

Today, Deobandi is represented in Pakistan by the Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam organization/political party and its splinter groups. Sayyid Abu Ala Maududi was born in South India (descendent of Christi line of Saints, journalist and editor of various Islamic publications and founder Amir of Dar Ul Islam Trust Institute in Pathankot in 1938, India. He was founder of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind in 1941 and Jamaat-e-Islami of Pakistan in 1947 and remained as leader until 1972. He was important in the Islamic revival in India. Maududi first opposed the establishment of the state of Pakistan but later supported the idea. 

 

            Yet another key figure was Haj Amin Muhammad Al Hussein, the grand mufti of Jerusalem, who presided as the Imam of the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, the highest Muslim authority in the British mandate during 1920s, who spearheaded the resurgence of modern radical Islam. Al Hussein was known also as "Fuhrer's Mufti" and the "Arab Fuhrer” with aspirations to rule a pan-Arabic empire in the Middle East.  In 1920 and again in 1929, Al Hussein incited anti-Jewish riots in Jerusalem by claiming that the Jews were plotting to destroy the Al Aqsa mosque. Nazi Adolf Eichmann partly funded the 1936 Arab revolt against the British. Al Hussein ordered armed Arab militias to massacre Jews. When the British authorities finally quelled the rebellion in 1939, Al Hussein fled to Iraq and helped to orchestrate a 1941 anti-British jihad that the British quelled. Al Hussein fled to Nazi Germany. 

 

            After the fall of Nazi Germany, Al Hussein fled to Egypt in 1946. In the late 1940s and early 1950s, he worked closely with a pro-fascist group in Egypt called Young Egypt and strongly influenced founding members of both the Iraqi and Syrian Ba'ath party. Al Hussein’s played central role in the creation of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1964. The radical Imam was the spiritual mentor of the first Chairman of the PLO, Ahmed Shukairi. Al Hussein used his extensive connections to recruit financial supporters for the PLO throughout the Arab world.  Almost 30 years after Al Hussein’s death in 1974, the Palestinian people still revere him as a hero and his radical theology.  Several of Al Hussein’s descendants held key posts in Palestinian affairs. The younger Al Hussein adopted the secular name Yasser Arafat in 1952.

 

Roughly contemporaneous with Maududi was the founding of the Muslim Brotherhood in Ismailiyah, Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al Banna. Like Maududi, Hasan al-Banna believed that the Al-Ikhwan-al-Muslimin (Muslim Brotherhood) would act as a catalyst of reform in Egypt in 1928. He believed that Islam’s moral high ground would ultimately enable it to achieve success in a long-term context and there was no need to opt for violence. He stated, “It is the nature of Islam to dominate, not to be dominated, to impose its laws on all nations and to extend its power to the entire planet”. 

 

Sayyid Qutub, considered the grandfather of Osama Bin Laden, advocated the use of violence as legitimate to achieve the goals of Islamic revivalism. He started as a literary critic and became radicalized in a 2-year sojourn in the U.S. which included a stint at Stanford University. Qutub travelled through America from 1948 to 1950, and was shocked at the moral and spiritual degeneracy.  He provided the intellectual and religious basis for Islamic militancy, extremism and violence as well as rationalizing the achievement of the ‘Islamic Revolution” through ‘Jihad” as a political end to challenge the secular orders. 

Qutub believed that things had reached such a despicable state that the Muslim community had ceased to exist having reverted to Godless ignorance (Jahiliyya). To eliminate Jahiliyya, Qutub argued Sharia, or Islamic law, must be established. Qutub preached that Muslims must engage in a two-pronged attack of converting individuals while also waging jihad to forcibly eliminate the "structures" of Jahiliyya – not only from the Islamic homeland but from the face of the earth.   In his view, the war against the West is the continuation of ‘crusades’.    

 

After Sayyid Qutub death, Faraz emerged as the most important Islamist revolutionary. He played an integral role in post 1966 Salafism movement. He had split from the group called Jamaat-al-Jihad to form his own organization under the same label in 1981. In Afghanistan, Sayyaf, a Wahhab Pashtu Warlord, and close follower of Qutubism, was in the forefront of Jihad against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.  Azzam and Osama Bin Laden followed in the footsteps of Qutubism.

 

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led the Iranian Revolution of 1979 to overthrow Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi.  Khomeini's beliefs were similar to Sunni Islamic thinkers like Maududi and Qutub. He believed that imitation of the early Muslims and the restoration of Sharia law were essential to Islam, that secular, Westernizing Muslims were actually agents of the West serving Western interests, and that the "plundering" of Muslim lands was part of a long-term conspiracy against Islam by the Christian West. 

 

Khomeini talked not about restoring the Caliphate, but about establishing an Islamic state where the leading role was taken by Islamic jurists (Ulema) as the successors of Shia Imams until the Mahdi returned from occultation. His concept of velayat-e-faqih (guardianship of the [Islamic] jurist), held that the leading Shia Muslim cleric in society – which Khomeini and his followers believed to be himself – should serve as head of state in order to protect or "guard" Islam and Sharia law from “innovation" and "anti-Islamic laws" passed "by sham parliaments.” 

 

Prince Muhammad bin Saud of Saudi Arabia accepted the teachings of the Abdul al-Wahhab, which the Royal family follows. It gained popularity as a counter to the Shia led Post-Iranian Revolution of 1979. The Sunni Royal family of Saudi Arabia and Sunni regimes of other Islamic majority nations extended financial and moral support worldwide. Hence, the rapid consolidation and spread of Wahhabism not only in Islamic region of the Middle East, but also extending to South Asia, Central Asia, EU, the Russia, the Americas and the South East Asia. 

 

Overview

In sum, there are major sectarian differences in Islam. The intra Islamic religious divide is real. Some Muslims view Islam as a modern ideology and a political program. A few others believe that it is a whole body of thought which seeks to invest society with Islam which may be integrationist, but may also be traditionalist, reform-minded or even revolutionary. At the other end, there are few ultra conservatives who seek cultural differentiation from the West and reconnection with the pre-colonial symbolic universe. And, resurgence of radical Islam – Obscurantist’s/Ultra Conservatives - is an established fact of modern history - post decolonization phenomenon.   It can be traced to several events. 

 If Maududi and al-Banna opted for high moral ground, Sayyid Qutub advocated the use of violence as legitimate to achieve the goals of Islamic revivalism. All of them believed in imposition of Sharia Law. Iran believed in establishing the Islamic State with jurists playing a leading role. And, the Kharijites followers believe in restoration of pure form of Islam - most radical.

The long-term strategic goal of the radical Islam is simple: establishment of the Global Islamic Caliphate. Most important, radical Islam manifests in two forms: intra Islamist struggle; and inter religious struggle on the global plane. The basic tenet of the Quran that “Islam will deliver victory and success” inspires its followers.  

Academics classify it as simultaneous clash between two civilizations – Islam and the West. It is also a clash between three civilizations between Stone Age Islam, moderate and liberal Islam, which is democratic and secular.  On reflection, it can be further enlarged as a clash between many civilizations (between Islam and Chinese; Islam and Hindu; and so on).   

 

How to reconcile an intolerant religion with many schisms and faces with other  religions in a "live and let live" harmonious atmosphere is the biggest challenge facing humankind. In the present explosive context of radical Islam post-Taliban ascension in Kabul, it appears a distant prospect or mirage. 

 

 

Fastest Growing Religion – Islam

 

           Islam is the world's second-largest religion, with over 1.9 billion Muslims in 2021. It is also the world's fastest-growing religion. The Islam population is mainly split between 1.5 billion Sunni Muslims and 240-340 million Shia Muslims with some others belonging to smaller denominations. 

More than 60% of the global Muslim population is in Asia and about 20% is in the Middle East and North Africa. Ipso facto, more than half of the 20 countries in the Middle East-North Africa region have populations that are approximately 95% Muslim or greater.

 

There are nearly 54 nations with Muslims constituting more than 50% of population spread over Southwest Asia, North Africa, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. The Muslim countries are mainly monarchies and presidential republics. Of them, there are nine declared Islamic States: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Brunei, Iran, Mauritania, Oman, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.  There are 13 nations where Islam is the ‘State Religion”:  Algeria, Bangladesh, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates. The remaining 26 nations classified as secular nations with Muslim majority are Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Nigeria, Niger, Sudan, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Lebanon, Jordon, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Northern Cyprus, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Albania, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Palestine and Turkey.  And, the new Muslim majority nations to include the Republic of Macedonia and Nigeria.

 

More than one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population, live in countries where Islam is not the majority religion. These minority Muslim populations are often quite large. India, for example, has the third-largest population of Muslims worldwide. China has more Muslims than Syria, while Russia is home to more Muslims than Jordan and Libya combined.

 

            

            As per Samuel Huntington, "In many Muslim countries the youth bulge peaked in the 1970s and 1980s; in others it will peak early in the 21st century…  These youth provide the recruits for Islamist organizations and political movements.  The juxtaposition of a rapidly growing people of one culture and a slowly growing or stagnant people of another culture generates pressures for economic and/or political adjustments in both societies.”     

 

As per Pew Research Center, the religious profile of the world is rapidly changing, driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching faiths. If current trends continue, Islam will grow faster than any other major religion by 2050.  

Population by Religions

 

  Date 

Founded Population in Millions 2020 World Population

1800 1900 1970 2000 2013 2025 7,800 Million as of March 2020

Christianity 30 CE 204 558 1229 1985 2355 2707

Islam 622 CE 91 200 577 1291 1635 1972

Hindu 1500 BC 108 203 463 825 982 1104

According to the U.S. Center for World Mission, the growth rate of Islam at 2.9% is higher than the 2.6% growth rate of the world's population.  Thus, the percentage of Muslims in the world is growing @ 0.6% per year.  This is due to higher birth rates in the third world. As a result of their extremely high rates of population growth, the proportion of Muslims in the world will continue to increase dramatically, probably accounting for about 30 percent of the world's population by 2025.

Muslims are the only religious group projected to increase faster than the world' population as a whole with estimated 73% change in population size by 2050. In contrast, the estimated change in population size of Christians is projected to rise slowly at about the same rate of 35% as the global population and the Hindu's also at 34%. 

             In the U.S. Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion. Even in the U.S. it may become a force to reckon with by 2051 AD.  

            In the EU, demographic transitions are quite alarming with Muslims likely to emerge as a major force by 2051. All throughout Europe a new reality is rising. Fifty-four million Muslims now live in Europe if Turkey is included. San Diego University recently calculated that a staggering 25 percent of the population in Europe will be Muslim just 12 years from now. Bernhard Lewis has predicted a Muslim majority by the end of this century.

 

           Many European cities are already one-quarter Muslim: Amsterdam, Marseille and Malmo. Paris has a ring of Muslim neighborhoods surrounding it. Muslim neighborhoods (ghettos) are mushrooming in every city across Europe. Religious fanatics control them. There are now thousands of mosques throughout Europe. There are plans to build super-mosques in the region.  In France, teachers avoid authors deemed offensive to Muslims, including Voltaire and Diderot; the same is increasingly true of Darwin. Because of Muslim sensitivity, no longer, the Holocaust is a study. Many state schools n Belgium and Denmark serve halal food to all pupils.  In once-tolerant Amsterdam, Muslims beat gays.  Non-Muslim women routinely hear 'whore, whore'.  Satellite dishes mostly point towards stations in the country of origin.  In England, Sharia courts are now officially part of the British legal system. Many neighborhoods in France are no-go areas for women without headscarves.   

 

 

The Pew Research Center reported that nearly half of French Muslims think of themselves as Muslims first than to the nations they are living in.  One-third of French Muslims do not object to suicide attacks.   The British Centre for Social Cohesion reported that one-third of British Muslim students are in favor of a worldwide caliphate. Muslims demand what they call 'respect'. Muslim official state holidays are a norm today in the EU. 

 

           India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia. 

 

Next, the Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan and got entangled in the Mujahedeen insurgency from which it retracted nearly a decade later in 1989 after ensuring a ‘neutral’ regime in Kabul.  However, it laid the foundations for the resurgence of ultraconservative Islam in pursuit of realizing its vision of establishing “Islamic Global Caliphate”. The Civil War that followed opened a window of opportunity to the Taliban and the al Qaeda combine to seize and capture Kandahar and Kabul initially and rule almost 90% of Afghanistan by late 1990s. The  Western military interventions in Iraq with positioning of Western troops in the Holy Land of Saudi Arabia gave a boost to their anti western rhetoric. The ISAF intervention in Afghanistan viewed as invasion and occupation of Afghanistan further reinforced anti Americanism and Westernism among the Muslim nations across the world and the Muslims inhabiting other nations.  The latest is the civilian uprisings sweeping the North African and Middle East nations against the autocratic leaders collaborating with the U.S. and the Western countries in the region.

 

           If Middle East was known as "Cockpit of Conflicts" in the past and the ‘Cradle of Terrorism’ during 1960s and 1970s, Afghanistan and Pakistan emerged as ‘Epicenter of Terrorism’ after 1979 in South Asia. Similarly, SE Asia can be termed as the “Crucible of Terrorism" and Latin America is emerging as the ‘Cocoon of Terrorism’.  

 

           Failed or failing nations, particularly in Africa, Balkans, Afghanistan, Colombia, Chechnya, South East Asia and Latin America are safe havens and breeding grounds for terrorists. State Sponsors like Iran, Syria, Pakistan, Cuba and Libya continue to offer support to terrorists. Non-State Actors like al Qaeda emerged providing the cutting edge of destructive capability. Finally, easy availability and accessibility of advanced conventional weapons, particularly RDX explosive technologies and the proliferation of militant group’s worldwide is taking place. 

 

Now, the hardliners faction of the Taliban has seized power in Afghanistan with a vast array of arms arsenal and dollars. 

Viewed in the framework of historic developments, blending, bonding and bridging multiculturalism amongst developing pluralist societies is not easy due to historic racial and religious divides.  The Western economic exploitation of oil resources of the region in collaboration with monarchies in the region remains a contentious issue with the Jihad Islamists.  The reasons for Muslims hatred for  the West is but natural. With religious tolerance an anathema to ultra conservatives, if they rally forces under the banner of Jihad to carry out terror strikes in Europe, they may be viewed as an evolutionary course of history. 

 

           In retrospect, the struggle for supremacy between the moderates, fundamentalists and ultra conservatives may remain the biggest internal security challenge in other dominant Muslim majority nations, particularly in Pakistan and CAR nations.  The outcomes depend upon the ability of men in uniform, particularly the ISI, to detach themselves from the Mullah-militant nexus and strive in the path of more moderate Islam and democratic values.  And, the ISI religious bigots are unlikely to change into moderates. So, the ongoing vicious churning in Pakistan will continue in posterity and may destabilize themselves as a nation, but its fallout will have ominous portends on its neighbors. By 2050, radical Islamists may be emboldened in their pursuit of their end objective - Islamic global Caliphate - to plunge many nations worldwide into utter chaos.  Never too late for China, Russia, U.S., EU nations to appreciate the danger that lay ahead for them too in their backyards.

Understanding Root Causes for the Growth of Radical Islam

 

       Ipso facto, majority of Muslims suffer from cumulative hurt psyche because of the ‘Al Andalus syndrome - present day Spain and Portugal", the “Crusades”, partition of India and the Palestinian crisis, besides ongoing humiliation in Bosnia, Chechnya, Xinjiang, Iraq and Afghanistan. Hence, their tryst with "Technology Age Crusades" in pursuit of Global Caliphate.

The relics and monuments in the Middle East and the Central Asia Republics remind them of their lost past glory of their Caliphates - Umayyad  (661–750) and Abbasid 750–1258) - and many dynasties to include: Seljuqs of Iran (about 1040–1196); Seljuqs of Rum (1081–1307); Mamluks of Egypt (1250–1517); Ottoman empire (1299–1923); Timurid empire (1307–1507); Safavid empire (1501–1722); Mughal empire (1526–1858); and their many dynasties.

The Arab armies of Umayyads, the first dynasty of Sunni caliphs after the reign of the Rashidun Caliphs (Abu Bakr, Umar, Uthman, and Ali),  motivated by Islam swept through the Middle East reducing Byzantine lands by more than half and engulfing the Persian lands, Visigoth Hispania and France from Spain, bent on threatening the Christianity.  

 

Prophet Muhammad, 622–632 and Caliphate, 632–661; Umayyad Caliphate, 661–750

And, the radical Islamists in particular nurture deep hatred against the "Infidels" for their defeat in 732 in southern France at Poitiers, when Frankish forces led by Charles Martel  defeated them in what Durant called "one of the most crucial battles of history" saving Western civilization and Christianity. If Muslims suffer from the “Al Andalusia Syndrome”, it is a reality of history. Similarly, the Crusades - 9 of them - savagely fought during 1095-1291 are also a grim reminder of the past. 

By the 17th century, European powers overtook the Muslim world in wealth, population and technology due to discovery of America and industrial revolution consolidating unbridled hegemony over West Asia/Middle East. By the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire became the “sick man of Europe”. The British and the French governments concluded a secret treaty (the Sykes-Picot Agreement) to partition the Middle East between them. The British occupied Egypt in 1882, though it remained under nominal Ottoman sovereignty. The British established effective control of the Persian Gulf.  Iraq and Palestine became British mandated territories. Iraq became the ‘Kingdom of Iraq’ and one of Sheriff Husayn’ sons, Faisal, were installed as the King of Iraq. Syria became a French protectorate and annexed Algeria in 1830 and Tunisia in 1878. The Christian coastal areas were split to become Lebanon, another French protectorate. The French extended their influence into Lebanon and Syria.   In 1912, the Italians seized Libya and the Dodecanese islands just off the coast of the Ottoman heartland of Anatolia. Greece, Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria asserted their independence and in the Balkan Wars of 1912-13.

 

And, the westernization of the Islamic world created professional armies led by officers who were both willing and able to seize power for themselves.  The most ambitious reformers were the Young Turks who seized power in the Ottoman Empire in 1908.  In 1914, they took the final step of joining Germany to protect them from the western powers, but the result was their defeat in World War 1 in 1918.

Meanwhile, Kemal Ataturk seized power in Turkey and embarked on a program of modernization and secularization.  He abolished the Caliphate, emancipated women, enforced western dress and the use of a new Turkish alphabet based on Latin in place of Arabic, and abolished the jurisdiction of the Islamic courts.  Turkey, having given up rule over the Arab World, now determined to secede from the Middle East and become culturally part of Europe.

Between 1919 and 1941, Syria, Egypt and Iraq made moves towards independence.  But, their revolts were crushed by the French and the British.  In 1922, the independent Kingdom of Egypt was created. Palestine became the ‘British Mandate of Palestine’ and was split in half.  The eastern half of Palestine became the ‘Emirate of Transjordan’ to provide a throne for another of Husayn’s sons, Abdullah. The Western half of Palestine was placed under direct British administration. The British promised via the Balfour Declaration their support in creating a Jewish homeland of Palestine.  Most of the Arabia peninsula fell to another British ally, Ibn Saud, who created the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932.  The Arabs perceived it as the “Great Betrayal” by the British. In 1941, the Rashid Ali al-Gayalani coup in Iraq led to the British invasion of the country during the Anglo-Iraq War. The British invasion of Iraq was followed by the Allied Invasion of Syria-Lebanon and the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran.

Another defining era in the Middle East came when oil was discovered, first in Persia in 1908 and later in Saudi Arabia in 1938 and other Persian Gulf states, and in Libya and Algeria. The Kings and Emirs of the Oil States became immensely rich, enabling them to consolidate their hold on power and giving them a stake in preserving western hegemony over the region. These developments led to a growing presence of the U.S. in Middle East affairs.  The U.S. became the ultimate guarantor of the stability of the region. 

When republican revolutions brought radical anti-western regimes to power in Egypt in 1954, in Syria in 1963, in Iraq in 1968 and in Libya in 1969, the Soviet Union made an entry in the region by aligning with local rulers.  These regimes gained popular support through their promises to destroy the state of Israel to the Arab masses. The Arabs united to fight the Israelis. Arabs, spearheaded by Egypt and Syria, rallied around the PLO against Israel. The U.S. felt obliged to defend its remaining allies, the conservative monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran and the Persian Gulf Emirates.  The list of major Arab-Israeli wars include 1948 Arab-Israel War, 1956 Suez War, 1967 Six Days War, 1970 War of Attrition, 1973 Yom Kippur War and 1982 Lebanon War.  When they failed to deliver on their promises, they became increasingly despotic. 

By mid-1970s, Saudi Arabia promoted and consolidated the Islamic resurgence by meeting an estimated 90% of the expenses of the entire faith. Throughout the Muslim world, religious institutions from children's Madrasas to high-level scholarships received Saudi funding, besides more than 1500 mosques and training for the preachers and teachers. The funding was also used to reward journalists and academics who followed the Saudis' strict interpretation of Islam; and satellite campuses were built around Egypt for Al Azhar - Islamic university.  The interpretation of Islam promoted by this funding was the strict, conservative Saudi-based Wahhabism or Salafism. In its harshest form it preached that Muslims should not only "always oppose" infidels "in every way," but "hate them for their religion ... for Allah's sake," that democracy "is responsible for all the wars of the 20th century," that Shia and other non-Wahhab Muslims were infidels, etc. 

Iran, which was a key US ally, was taken over by the Shia clergy in 1979 by overthrowing the monarchy and establishing a theocratic regime that was even more anti-western than the secular regimes in Iraq or Syria.  This forced the U.S. into a close alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.  However, the crushing military defeat of Pan-Arab forces in West Asia led to the surge in the modern Islamist terrorist rampage.  

Islamic terrorism blossomed after the Khomeini revolution in 1979.  Iran's new leaders saw themselves as the head of a link to a worldwide revolution. The creation of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) followed the 1979 revolution to protect and promote the objectives of the revolution.   Their targets were the American heretics and their Zionist allies.  By the end of the 1970s, Islamist radical elements created an extensive transnational extremist network for spreading terror worldwide. They established and trained Hezbollah (which means Party of God, in Arabic) in 1982. They trained, Islamic Jihad and other groups. Now, the IRGC is playing an active role to undermine Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Baluchistan.

 

By the late 1980, many of the PLO's Muslim financiers became disillusioned with the increasingly secular nature of the Palestinian movement. Yasser Arafat's support of Saddam Hussein in the early 1990s strongly angered and prompted many of these extremists in the Persian Gulf states to reduce or all together withdraw their financial backing of the PLO. 

Meanwhile, radical fundamentalist forces opposed progressive change attempted by secular nationalists as a threat to Islam. For radical Islamists, the primary threat of the West is cultural rather than political or economic, which could destroy Islam and the Islamic community (ummah) far more effectively than political rule. They wanted return to an ontological form of Islam that rejects modernity. Their groups rallied in pursuit of creation of Islamic States besides liberation of Israel. 

An astute Sunni terrorist, Osama bin Laden, capitalized upon Arafat's political misstep and transformed his al Qaeda organization into the prime recipient of financial support from Sunni Muslim radicals. His "Letter to the American People  echoed al Hussein’s propaganda claim that "the Israelis are planning to destroy the Al Aqsa mosque."  The letter claims, "It is the Muslims who are the inheritors of Moses," dating the conflict between Jews and Arabs back to the Biblical conflict between Abraham's two children: his eldest son, Ishmael (from who Arabs are believed descended), and his younger son, Isaac (from who Jews are believed descended).

Radicals like Osama bin Laden drew their inspiration from the Kharijites, Hussein and Qutubism. They claim that they represent true and pure Islam. Osama bin Laden believed that the Islamic world has fallen into perfidy and apostasy. Osama bin Laden also divided the earth into the dar al-Islam (the realm of Islam) and the dar al-harb (the realm of war). For bin Laden, the dar al-Islam is no longer the realm of peace. Therefore, they have taken upon themselves to cleanse Islam from within and rapid globalization as ordained by the Prophet.  Al Qaeda, ISIS  and Taliban represent the hidden but real face of the Kharijites and Qutub tradition of Islam.  

 

Radical Islamic fundamentalism has reemerged on the world stage, but in a devious way - stateless terrorism supported to varying degrees by totalitarian Islamic states in the Middle East, and by sympathizers around the world.   In sum, the goal of radical Islam was the same as it was 1300 years ago - the conquest of the West and the establishment of Global Islamic Caliphate. 

 

The track record of crises and conflicts includes Israel-Palestine crisis, civil war in Iraq, piracy in the Horn of Africa, insurgency in Afghanistan, civil war in Pakistan, ethnic separatism in China (Xinjiang), terrorism in India, unrest in Indonesia and Malaysia, secessionist strife in Thailand, rebellion in Philippines, advancement and consolidation in Africa particularly in the North and East, urban violence in U.K, France and so on.   

 

Today, most awesome is the consolidation of Islamic fundamentalism or neo fundamentalism or communalism. The Militant-Mullah-Madrasas-Military unity is progressively increasing at an alarming pace in majority of nations with Muslim majority. The Mosques and the Madrasas that have spread all over are rapidly making inroads everywhere and producing radicals, who are willing to become human bombs and give up their lives so that they can go to heaven. Majority of Muslims firmly believe that Jihad terrorists are sacrificing their lives in order to establish Allah’s rule in India and all over the world as enjoined in the Quran. 

The current postures of many nations vary. Many leaders in the ‘Rest of the World’ , bereft of ideas and often hostile to their own roots, have patronizingly assumed that radical violence was an essential part of the Islamic faith. Partly because of the timidity of the ‘Rest of the World’, radical Islamists have successfully created their constituencies. Such weak responses have helped to legitimate those whom Islam fought so earnestly to rid itself of at its beginning. Some regimes protect them. Some appease them. Some apparently even sponsor them. Some pretend they are secular and religion's can coexist in harmony based on minority appeasement.  Few pretend that radical Islamists ultimately want only peace. So, they believe dialogue or negotiations are the only way out. Few others believe that modernization will somehow bail mankind out and pretend appeasement of radical Islamists will move them to moderate status. 

In sum, Islam as "Religion Par Excellence" has an indelible imprint on the psyche of Muslims. So, Islam is making every attempt to spread worldwide not only through the "Pen and  the Sword", but also by financial inducements. Today, Islam faces internal contradictions with quite a few divergent  ideologies -  secular nationalists, liberals, moderates, fundamentalists and communalists (radical Islamists). In particular, the radical Islamists end objective is a global, transnational caliphate that is governed by Islamic jurisprudence with the Caliphate be a "pure Islamic State" in which members must strictly observe sunna (the Prophet’s traditions) in a long term context. In contrast, fundamental Islamist groups want to establish "Islamic Caliphates" that strictly follows "Sharia". They are also against "apostates" within.   Both of them want non-interference by the U.S. and the Western countries in the Middle East and their total pullout.        

The issue is “Will the radicals ever reach an agreement to co-exist with others from within and others in harmony.” So, both the non Muslim World and the moderate Muslims have two choices only: unite to fight reactionary forces worldwide or pretend modernization and globalization processes in their natural course will neutralize radicals at their own peril. 

Growth of Islam in India

Islam is the second largest religion of India with fastest growth rate. India's Muslim population is about the world's third-largest; and the world's largest Muslim-minority population.    In 1941, there were approximately 75 million Muslims (25% of population) in pre-partitioned India.  From approx 36 million (9.91%) in 1951, Muslim population has grown to nearly 75.5 million (11.35% in 1981) and well over 207 million Muslims (2020 estimate - 15.5%).  India is home to 10.9% of the world's Muslim population. If one adds 5% of unaccounted Muslim population, the figures will be higher. As per Owaisi of AIMIM, MP, the Muslim population is over 20%.

The combined growth in India-Pakistan-Bangladesh, however, is very significant, 100 million in 1947 to nearly 550 million people by 2021 (out of approximately a total 1.9 billion).

Fiction – Islam established its position in India in the 11th century AD with Muslim Sultans rampaging the country with the Sword in one hand and the Qur’an in the other hand – in the name of Allah. 

Fact – Islam was brought to India through Sind by Arab traders in the 7th century AD and spread by wandering Muslim ascetics and Pirs in a slow, but steady manner.  Muhammad Bin Qasim first captured Sind in 711 AD and attempted Islamization by offering complete equality for the rulers and generous treatment.  Next, Muhammad Ghazni led more than twenty raids into India between 1001-27, but annexed territory during 1026-27 AD only, when Multan and Lahore were incorporated into the Ghaznavid Sultanate.  Subsequently, its rapid spread consolidation was done by Muhammad Ghori by 1196 AD.  A decade later, the Slave Dynasty (Mamluks) was established with its capital at Delhi in 1206.  The five dynasties (1290-1320); Tuglaks (1320-1413); Saiyyids (1414-51 AD); and the Lodis (1451-1526 AD).  Thus, Islam was spread in India by the policy of conversion by persuasion and sword under various Sultanates.

Ipso facto, it was under the Mughals, Islam’s spread became rapid.  First, Akbar attempted to create a refined Islam, the Deen-e-llahi, and a syncretic religion combining the best of all religions.  Admittedly, Akbar’s attempt could not be consolidated religions.  Admittedly, Akbar’s attempt could not be consolidated by his successors.  During Aurangzeb’s reign, bitter Hindu-Islamic battles were fought.  Assertive Hindu revivalist movements spread rapidly and became nationalist ethnic armed uprisings.  Once Aurangzeb’s reign ended.  Muslim Princes battled amongst themselves and murdered each other.  Delhi was ransacked more than once in the 18th century: by Nadir Shah of Iran in 1739, and later, by Ahmed Shah Abadali of Afghanistan in 1761.  Thus, internal atrophy of Muslim Empires, abetted by the raids of external Muslim powers, brought about the disintegration of Muslim Empires. 

The British exploited the decay and decline of Muslim emperors, and the Maratha and the Sikh uprisings to their advantage to effectively implement the policy of ‘Divide and Rule’. Scholars trace the current Muslim malaise in India to the trauma of their downfall in 1857, when the Muslims became the flag bearers of the Mutiny (14 May – 21 Sep 1857) and rallied under the banner of Bahadur Shah II.  On suppressing the Mutiny, the British banished Bahadur Shah II to Rangoon, terminated the role of Muslims in the political and administrative fields, rejected their language and threatened their identity.  So the spread of Islam was reduced to a trickle.  Furthermore, partition on communal lines 90 years later in 1947 and the communal holocaust in the aftermath are the other crucial landmarks in the growth of Islam.

In sum, the rapid growth of Islam in India up to mid AD 18th century generally accompanied the expansion of Muslim political power more by violence and survival compulsion of rulers and ruled alike.  Also, the concept of Islamic egalitarianism attracted many non-caste Hindus.  Some scholars claim access to irrefutable proof of a large number of conversions to Islam from lower castes and professional groups.  Of course, increase in the Muslim population was also caused by a continuing influx of refugees into India in the wake of Mongol invasion of Islamic lands.  Add to it, settlers who migrated looking from the wealth of India during the Islamic Empires.  It must also be accepted that Islam was firmly entrenched amongst the people of border regions, that is, Balochi, Pakhtoon, Sindis, Punjabis and Kashmiris.  Finally, the message of love and kindness which the Sufis (mystics) propagated played a major role in attracting the oppressed masses.  

Despite partition on communal lines, the growth of Islam continues more rapidly than hither to fore causing serious concern amongst the majority – an increase of over 171 million people during the last 70 years. Admittedly, it is more due to population explosion, conversions, migrations and illegal infiltrations, particularly due to the clandestine entry in Assam, West Bengal and other States of North East that has spread into all other states – insidious invasion. The latest is Rohingya influx into Southern States. It is a serious threat to Hindu interests.  It may, therefore, become a major source for tensions and conflicts due to changes in the equilibrium of Indian society after 1947.  

As per BP Saha, Inspector General, Railway Protection Force, Calcutta, “prior to liberation of Bangladesh in 1971, broadly Hindus used to migrate into West Bengal for socio-political and religious reasons.  But, the complexion of the influx has undergone a drastic change.  The infiltration is increasing.  In 1991, altogether 1, 03,877 had infiltrated including 58,290 Muslims.  Between 1972-1990, amongst Bangladeshi nationals who entered with valid travel documents, 1, 57,936 Muslims are overstaying”. There is also alarmingly high decadal growth of around 30 percent (national growth 23.59%) in West Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas.  

As per data in public domain for 2021. Muslims represent a majority of the local population in Lakshadweep (96.2%) and Jammu and Kashmir (68.3%). However, the largest concentration – over 60% - of all Muslims in India, live in the five states of Uttar Pradesh (19.26% with 3.85 crores)), West Bengal (30% with 3.11 crores), Bihar (16.87% with 1.7 crores), Assam (30% with 1.461 crores) and Kerala (26.6% with 0.922 Crores). Total 11.043 crores. 

In Uttar Pradesh, there are 5 districts with significant Muslim population out of 75 districts to include; Amroha - 40.78%; Baghpat -27.98%; Bahrich - 33.53%; Balrampur -37.51%; Bareilly - 34.54%; Bijnor - 43.04%;  Moradabad - 50.80; Muzaffarnagar - 41.11%; Rampur - 50.57%; Saharanpur - 41.95%; Sambhal - 32.88%; Shamil - 41.73%; Shrawasti - 30.79%; and Siddharthnagar - 29.23%. And, Lucknow too has 21.46% Muslim population.  

Muslim Population in Bihar is 1.76 Crores (16.87% of total 10.41 Crores. In Bihar, Kishanganj with  67.98% is the only  Muslim majority district out of 38 districts. there are three districts with significant Muslim population to include: Araria - 42.95%; Katihar - 44.47%; and Purnia -38.46%.

Assam West Bengal Kerala

1901 303,170

(12.4%) 3,954,776

(29.44%)    1,119,473

(17.5%)

1911 634,101

(16.99%) 2,955,098

(26.31%) 1,263,602

(17.7%)

1921 880,426

(19.41%) 4,101,516

(26.07%) 1,360,180

(17.5%)

1931 1,279,388

(23.41%) 4,521,313

(26.65%) 1,624,112

(17.1%)

1941 1,696,978

(25.72%) 5,506,442

(26.18%) 1,883,786

(17.4%)

1951 1,995,936

(24.68%) 5,102,330

(19.85%) 2,374,598

(17.5%)

1961 2,765,509

(25.26%) 6,915,348

(20%) 3,027,639

(17.9%) +

1971 3,594,006

(24.56%) 9,083,963

(20.46%) 4,162,718

(19.5%) +37

1981 4,722,467

(26.15%) 11,743,209

(21.51%) 5,409,687

(21.3%) +

1991 6,373,204

(28.43%) 16,050,000

(23.61%) 6,788,354

(23.3%)

2001 8,240,611

(30.92%) 20,240,543

(25.25%) 7,863,842

(24.7%)

2011 10,679,345

(34.22%) 24,654,825

(27%) 8,873,472

(26.6%)

2021 14,619,086

(40.03%) 31,144,763

(30%) 9,216,875

(26.6%)   +12

The Assam State as per 2021 figures has over 14.61 Muslims constituting over 40.03% of the total population of the state. Out of the 33 district, there are 13 districts with Muslim majority population to include: South Salmara - 95.2%; Dhubri - 79.67%; Barpeta - 70.74%; Darrang - 64.34%;  Hailakandi - 60.31%; Goalpara - 57.52%; Karimganj - 56.36%; Nagaon - 55.36%; Hojai - 53.65%; Morigaon - 52.56%; and Bongaigaon - 50.22%.   Also, there are five district with significant Muslim majority to include: Kamrup - 39.66%; Cachar - 37.71%; Nalbari - 35.96%, Kokrajhar - 28.44%, and Chirang - 22.66%.

According to the (2021) estimation, the West Bengal state has over 31,144,763 Muslims, who form 30% of the state's population. Muslims form the majority of the population in three districts out of 23 districts: Murshidabad - 66.88%; Malda - 51.27%; and Uttar Dinajpur - 49.92%. Also, there are eight districts with significant Muslim population to include: Birbhum - 37.06%; South 24 Parganas - 35.57%; Nadia - 26.76%; Howrah - 26.20%; North 24 Parganas - 25.82%; Cooch Behar - 25.54; and Purba Bardhaman - 25.16%. Closely following them are Dakshin Dinajpur with 24.63% and Kolkata with 20.60%. 

In Kerala, Muslim Population 0.922 Crores (26.6%). And, out of 13 districts in Kerala, Malappuram with 70.24% Muslims is the only Muslim majority district. But, there are five other districts with significant Muslim population to include: Kozhikode with 39.24%;  Kasaragod with 37.24%; Kannur with 29.43%; Kannur with 29.43% and Wayanadu with 28.65%.

Next, irrefutably partition deprived and denied status and power to the Muslims who stayed back under compelling circumstance of ethnicity and other reasons.  But, it is they who were the most vociferous and violent in their demand for Pakistan.  At the same time, it was naïve to expect converted native Muslims from Uttar Pradesh or Kerala or Andhra to have migrated to the newly proclaimed nation of Pakistan forsaking their lands and ethnic-cum-cultural heritage.  When their misguided venture failed to restore fame and power, naturally their psyche was damaged.  After lying low for some years after 1947, they have reverted to their historic game of assertive and divisive tendencies.  Add to it, the Bangladeshi Muslim insidious infiltration.  Also, the assimilation and absorption characteristics of Hinduism have always been viewed as a threat in being to their hope of living with self-respect, dignity and honor and enjoy relatively good quality of life, what to talk of ‘striving on the path of God or spreading it’.   

The most vital issue that needs to be realized by others is ‘how can a community, although based on an alien religion, but accepted and practiced by different ethnic groups, having enjoyed predominant status and power since the 12th century, face the reality of being a minority and adjust itself to the emerging realities’, particularly when the psyche of its followers is fed and bred on the super alter ego of ‘Jihad’.

With so many real or perceived or imaginary fears, felt needs, deprivation psyche and the ‘Andalusia Syndrome’, Indian Muslims cannot but help getting attracted towards fundamentalism and communalism as an offensive-defensive reaction.  It is also naïve to expect young educated, exploited and culturally distinct Muslims in minority not to fasten upon and cling to the religious factor tenaciously in order to be better able to mobilize political capabilities against central authorities, particularly so when other communities are themselves abetting it.  After all, the corporate responsibility of the Ummah lends hope for its members.  So, they adopt Islam as a protest against their exclusion from a system whose goals and structures anyway they oppose.  After all, secularism is unacceptable to a good Muslim.

Moreover, in such strategic areas as Kashmir, where the Muslims are a majority, abetted by external forces and dramatic international developments in the region, resurgence or reassertion of Islamic separatism may be viewed as a natural process.  A word of caution.  If Pan-Indian social order or supra-nationalism does not satisfy the growing awareness and raising expectations of Muslims in India, then it is likely that they may support and actively participate in supra-regional or ethnic separatist uprisings, since they provide alternate options to enjoy a better clout and share in power.  Not doomsdays prophesy, but a likely prospect.  Whatever needs to be evaluated of the present and future should be viewed from such an angle.  Such may be the harsh emerging realities for all.

Such is the psychological trauma which every Single Muslim in India is going through by birth.  Most Significant it is, therefore, to differentiate the post partition Muslim manifestations from their pre-independence movements.  Albeit Maulana Azad, Dr Zakir Hussain, Ghulam Nabi Azad or Dr Abdul Kalam or Azharuddin or General MA Zaki or their likes were at the helm, the Muslims in general feel excluded from the politico-socio-economic systems in the emerging India.  At the same time, they realize their exploitation by their own leaders and others.  Secularism remains an anathema to them, and they realize its pseudo content.  

It is in the above backdrop, one needs to appreciate the opportunities provided by a plethora of terror groups in India as per South Asia Terrorism Portal data. There are 79 Proscribed terrorist groups, 76 Active groups and 107 Inactive groups. In J & K, there are over 36 Islamist groups besides AQIS and its manifestations, Indian Mujahedeen, and all its groups, ISIS/ISIL/ISIS-K and all its manifestations and Tehreek-ul-Mujahedeen groups. In the Northeast, there are 17 Islamist groups mostly in Assam with links with Bangladesh groups.

Surely, external State and non-State actors and their intelligence agencies cannot be expected to forego the opportunity to stall the realization of full power potential of modern India to raise a regional power to reckon with. So What? Its answer is simple. Prepare for the worst contingency for which national unity and purpose is most critical.

Holy Terror or Holy War

"Holy Terror or Holy War?"  It depends on which side of the fence one is.  Unless one first understands ‘Anatomy of Holy Terror or Holy Frenzy”, which is as old as history, one cannot wage war on "radical Islamist terror". 

High priests of all religions claim that their religion propagates piety, compassion, tolerance and universal brother hood.  However, they represent the visible endearing face only.  Its obverse face or the hidden face behind the mask is the most dangerous.  It exists in all religions as a means to cleanse their societies - both intra and inter, or, internal and external.  

The concepts of messianic age and martyrdom constitute the core of ‘Holy Terror’.  The liberation theology and its reviews are exciting for the poor and the oppressed - the just side of the good over the evil. Islamist radicals invoke inflammatory rhetoric/polemic.  The liberation of the poor by a violent revolution to achieve social justice is inevitable and justified. Also, only those will be saved who deserve to be saved and others sent to heaven or hell based on their good or evil deeds.  

Martyrdom governs and shapes religion inspired suicide terrorism. In the concept of martyrdom, it is commonly believed that all those sacrificing their lives in battles, particularly fighting for their religious causes or Gods are guaranteed a place in the Paradise. Conjointly, they provide an awesome dimension to normal violence or militancy of religions.  Most significant, it is to appreciate that societies punishment withstanding capability is closely inter-linked to this awesome dimension – the firmer the belief, the greater its sacrificing spirit.  Self-immolation, cyanide and mass suicide cultures are the outward manifestations of such an abnormal condition.

Martyrdom rose to prominence during the fourth century when Catholics came to believe that dying for one's faith was not just a duty, but also an honor and a privilege.  It exists in all major religious philosophies. A few view it with sanctimonious reverence. Islam is no exception with the lower form of ‘jihad’ sanctified as religious duty.

  

In sum, both violence and militancy are imperatives of history and not merely accidents of history at various points of time. Terrorism can be traced at least to the 1st-century AD Sicarii Zealots (Jews) albeit disputed by few scholars.  Followed a whole range of terror groups worldwide to include few: Assassins – an 11th century offshoot of a Shia Muslim sect known as the Ismailis (11th Century); France - Reign of Terror by the Jacobins); Fenian Brotherhood and Narodnaya Volya (19th Century); the Thugees in India (mid 19th Century);  Klux Klan (white supremacist, anti-Semitic, racist, anti-Catholic, and nativist); and nowadays a whole range of terror groups worldwide.

Islamic terrorist groups have mushroomed worldwide after 1990s - over 200-300 today  multiplying into scores of tightly knit organizations.  Virtually, all these groups draw their logic from two convictions; violence is necessary to replace Muslim majority secularist and democratic governments  with theocratic Islamic ones; and, it is the duty of every Muslim to strive for that goal.  So, the quest to establish the fundamentalist Islamic states has long existed.  And, the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928 and firmly established in most Arab countries, champions the cause.  It has accumulated a huge financial chest over the years.  Terrorism or violence is its means. So, violence or even militancy, whichever term one may wish to use it, has been justified and sanctified by all religions as a means to achieve politico-socio-economic justice and otherwise freedom.   

In sum, once "Holy Terror" gets released, there is no stopping of it due to its one track psychological orientation. Societies must learn to live with them by their effective marginalization.   Both fundamentalist and communalist violent or militant or terrorist overtones and their emerging prospects need to be analyzed in the full knowledge of such historical evidence.

Understanding Psyche of the Radical Islamists

Precise understanding of the psyche of "Radical Islamists" is critical to chart the course of religious wars worldwide. Ipso facto, separation between religion and politics is sacrilegious in Islam.  It is the blue print of politico-socio-economic order including Sharia Law, State and institutions prescribed for warring primitive tribes of West Asia of bygone era. It lays down detailed rules for society and the life of every person. What it strives for is Sharia. Islam dictates every aspect of life.   

Let none suffer from illusions on the long term end objective of radicals that is to establish Global Islamic Caliphate in three stages: 

• Stage 1 - establish Islamic Caliphates in nations with Muslim majorities or areas under control;

• Stage 2 - extend establishment of Islamic Caliphates to the neighboring regions, where demographic transitions are likely to alter in mid or long term contexts; and,

• Stage 3 -  achieve the dream of the Global Islamic Caliphate beyond 2050 AD.  Meanwhile, take the conduct of the mega terrorism war where it hurts the most to the West - the US and the EU. 

The radicals everywhere view modernization based on secularism as a threat to their expansionist agenda. Therefore, they are reasserting themselves with renewed vigor to regain their supremacy in the affairs of the State and the societies. Alvin Toffler had observed two decades ago “Religions that insist on totalitarian control over every aspect of their own members lives, but do not try to impose their control on nonmembers, may be compatible with democracy.  What is not compatible are those religions that combines totalitarianism with universalism. Such movements are at war with any possible definition of democracy”.  

So, none can blame radical Islamists recourse to use of violence and terror to spread its growth - al Jihad. Al Kalam represents its endearing face; but overwhelmed by al Jihad.  Most critical to recognize that its ideology is to defend and protect its faith, but also to advance and consolidate through the pen or the sword. If Islamic radicals are striving to dominate the world, none can blame them.  

Al Qaeda, ISIS and the Taliban represent radical ultra conservative ideology – establishment of the Great Global Islamic Caliphate with an AK rifle and suicide bomb replacing the ‘Pen and Sword’. It is a global ideological movement attempting to regain its pristine lost glory. They hope to gain their ultimate objective through waging asymmetric guerilla war of attrition through terrorism with the time in their favor.  Jihad – Allah Ho Akbar - is their war cry.

Islam may lay claims to a holistic ideology, but it is not compatible with freedom and democracy, because what it strives for is Sharia. Some social scientists have described Islam as inherently hierarchical, authoritarian, expansionist, oppressive to women, anti-Western and opposed to democratic ideas of personal rights. In essence, the Koran texts contain many ambiguities for alternative interpretations and contradictions.  If you want to compare Islam to anything, compare it to communism or other totalitarian ideologies. Winston Churchill called Islam 'the most retrograde force in the world', and why he compared Mein Kamp to the Quran.

Radicals invoke the justness of the cause by quoting the Koran “slay the pagans wherever ye find them” and extrapolate this to conclude that it is the "duty of every Muslim" to "kill Americans anywhere." Bin Laden elaborated on this theme in his "Letter to America" of October 2002: "you are the worst civilization witnessed by the history of mankind: You are the nation who, rather than ruling by the Sharia of Allah in its Constitution and Laws, choose to invent your own laws as you will and desire. You separate religion from your policies, contradicting the pure nature which affirms Absolute Authority to the Lord and your Creator."

          Bin Laden with Ayman al-Zawahiri, Mullah Omar, Ahmed Refai Taha, Mir Hamzah, and Fazlur Rahman issued three fatwa’s’.  In 1996, the first fatwa issued called for American soldiers to leave Saudi Arabia.  In a second fatwa issued in 1997, bin Laden outlined his objections to American foreign policy towards Israel, as well as the continued presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War. Later in 1998, bin Laden has issued the third fatwa encouraging Muslims to take up arms against Washington's imperialism to ‘confront, fight and kill’ Americans and their allies anywhere, and ‘to liberate the entire Muslim Middle East’.

Bin Laden used Islamic texts to exhort violent action against American military and citizenry noting, "Ulema have throughout Islamic history unanimously agreed that the jihad is an individual duty if the enemy destroys the Muslim countries”.  On 16 Sept 1999, Bin Laden had issued the threat of Jihad against India too. His al Qaeda group has issued a warning of another Kargil-type situation in Kashmir. Now, Russia too is the latest addition.

 

Rapid changes are the root cause of growing uncertainty, which is drawing masses closer to Gods to find peace and solace.  It is reigniting the embers of fundamentalism in all religions.  All religions are competing with each other to gain ascendency over others, particularly Islam and Christianity.  

Most significant, it is to appreciate that ‘punishment withstanding’ capability of societies grows out of this awesome dimension - the firmer the belief, the greater the sacrificing spirit. Thus, the cause must be worthy and invincible. Religious motivation triggers the suicide bomb or cyanide culture.  Although Islam does not recommend suicide and the liberation of homeland is not a religious duty, the impressionable young minds indoctrinated to sacrifice their lives for the higher cause of the Islamic Global Caliphate willingly indulge in such gruesome activity.   After all, it is not easy to wipe out the belief of “Jihad” from the minds of the young groomed in Madrasas in an atmosphere of religious fervor and passion.

Add to them, a variety of other causes other than inspiration derived from scriptures to include: psychological alienation due to living in the crucible of communal hatred due to polarization, pride in themselves and their clans, communities and societies, widening rich-poor and urban-rural divide, rampant corruption, unemployment, increasing poverty, poor governance, child abuse, and fraudulent democratic processes breed  disillusionment, disenchantment and disgruntlement among denied and traditionally deprived sections of people.  Criminals may be attracted to join terrorist ranks in the hope of leading a brigand’s life and gaining martyr’s status.  Few may join to lead a brigand’s life and adventure. Some forcibly recruited as terrorists. Suffering from deprivation syndrome, they resort to violence rallying under differing ideological labels.  Due to lack of equitable access to resources, they resort to low-cost warfare like terrorism thereby plunging nations into tumults upheavals.  Thus, the bonding of a cross-section of society is by psychological conditioning through propaganda blitz during training.

In sum, holy terror gets unleashed.  Once released, there is no stopping of it due to its one-track psychological orientation. For example, the Zealots (Jewish - 1st Century) provoked a massive rebellion against Rome, which ended in a catastrophe; and the Second Temple destroyed.  The final act was the gruesome mass suicide at Masada.  Subsequently, it inspired more uprisings among successive generations. Large Jewish centers in Cyprus and Egypt, then under Roman domain, decimated.  Judea was itself de-populated.  In addition, the final tragedy - the Second Exile occurred - a traumatic impact on Jewish consciousness, which became the central Jewish experience for the next 2000 years, one that altered virtually every institution of Jewish life. Add to it, the Crusades, the 'Tab rites' and the Anabaptists during Medieval Age. 

Recently, humankind experienced ethnic cleansing in Serbia and Croatia.  India has been waging a grim battle against holy terror over the past seven decades in Jammu and Kashmir and episodically in the Northeast and South, besides Punjab. In fact, one prominent act of desecration is adequate to stir messianic upheavals. Highlighting of any number of incidents of desecration is easy from past records. India has been experiencing their fallout quite frequently in contemporary context.

The psyche of radical Islamists is shaped from childhood in the Madrasas, consolidated and advanced due to "five times a day Prayers". The training is extensive in the killing grounds of PakAf border and also worldwide. The primary focus is to develop a commando who can carry out special operations in rear areas by stealth as against regular forces on the border. Besides physical endurance and weapon handling skills, they are imparted training in explosives of all types and communications skills. They got battle hardened in real live battle situations in Afghanistan alongside the Taliban. To expect sudden transformation in Radical Islamist Jihadist outlook to more liberal and endearing face is a mirage.  

In sum, the prophecy of clash of civilizations by Samuel Huntington appears a distinct possibility. Humankind is caught in the vortex of vicious inter and intra religious spinning. The major World religions need to reach consensus on tolerance essential to live in harmony with each other, which is a utopia. Otherwise, they will continue to breed the new crop of ultra conservatives in all religions, whose sole objective will be to protect and promote their interests against other religions.   

Surge of Radical Islamist Movement

            The surge of radical Islamist movement is traced to the rise of the Islamist movement after the Iranian Revolution (1978-1979). The Afghan jihad against the pro-Soviet government further developed the Salafist Jihadist movement which inspired Al-Qaeda. The real surge of radical  Islamic terrorism exploded during the 1990s particularly in AFPak border. 

Many external intelligence agencies like the CIA (USA) and the ISI (Pakistan)  aided and abetted spread of terror groups and of terrorism worldwide.   Over decades, Al Qaeda created a worldwide strategic framework of Islamist Organizations rallying different groups under a single banner - the World Islamic Front banner - to carry out  "Jihad against the Jews and the Crusaders." 

The jihadi threat is alive and resurgent worldwide. Now, it is more potent in Africa and the Middle East. The intelligence community suddenly discovered al Qaeda operatives in 90 countries. Unemployment, flourishing corruption, economic stagnation, political exclusion and disregard for civil liberties are the root causes of surge of radical Islamist movement. Furthermore, religious mobilization and polarization five times a day and the Madrasas indoctrination of the young at impressionable ages inspire, consolidate and advance indelible religious fervor.  So, waning away and eclipse of radical Islamist surge and terrorism due to education and modernization is, therefore, a delusion.

The Taliban

The Taliban’s victory has energized Islamist extremists across the world.  Analysts predict that some may travel to Afghanistan, while an al-Qaeda affiliate that aims to conquer Mali is already drawing motivation from the Taliban.

The Taliban  is a Deobandi Islamist religious-political movement and military organization in Afghanistan. Its ideology has been described as combining an "innovative" form of Sharia Islamic law based on Deobandi fundamentalism and militant Islamism, combined with Pashtun social and cultural norms known as Pashtunwali - derivative of Pashtun tribesmen. Following the victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan and sweeping to power in Kabul, the world’s attention has turned to the Taliban having ties with the al-Qaeda. 

The Taliban emerged in 1994 as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students (talib) from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan who had been educated in traditional Islamic schools, and fought during the Soviet–Afghan War. Under the leadership of Mohammed Omar, the movement spread throughout most of Afghanistan, shifting power away from the Mujahedeen warlords. 

The Pakistani ISI and military provided support to the Taliban during their founding and time in power, and of continued support to the Taliban during the insurgency and currently consolidation of their government in Kabul. 

The Taliban established the  totalitarian Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in 1996 and transferred the capital to Kandahar. It held control of most of the country until being overthrown after the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in December 2001 following the September 11 attacks. From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban held power over roughly three-quarters of Afghanistan, and enforced a strict interpretation of Sharia, or Islamic law. However, parts of the northeast were held by the Northern Alliance, which largely maintained international recognition as a continuation of the interim Islamic State of Afghanistan. The Taliban's government was only recognized by three nations: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.

During their rule from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban and their allies committed massacres against Afghan civilians, denied UN food supplies to 160,000 starving civilians, and conducted a policy of scorched earth, burning vast areas of fertile land and destroying tens of thousands of homes. They banned activities and media including paintings, photography, and movies that depicted people or other living things. They also prohibited music using instruments, with the exception of the daf, a type of frame drum. The Taliban prevented girls and young women from attending school, banned women from working jobs outside of healthcare (male doctors were prohibited from treating women), and required that women be accompanied by a male relative and wear a burqa at all times when in public. If women broke certain rules, they were publicly whipped or executed. Religious and ethnic minorities were heavily discriminated against during Taliban rule and they have engaged in cultural genocide, destroying numerous monuments including the famous 1500-year-old Buddhas of Bamiyan.

The group is internally funded by its activities in the illegal drug trade by producing and trafficking narcotics such as heroin, extortion, and kidnap and ransom. They also seized control of mining operations in the mid 2010s which were illegal under the previous government.

According to the United Nations, the Taliban and their allies were responsible for 76% of Afghan civilian casualties in 2010, and 80% in 2011 and 2012.

Today, there are two groups within the Taliban: moderate and rigid orthodox groups. The moderate group is pursuing an endearing face seeking neutral status and international recognition. Among them is Maulavi Mohammad Sher Abas Stanikzai who was trained in the Indian Military Academy, and a member of the "Negotiating Team" has recently stated “India is very important for this subcontinent. We want to continue our cultural, economic and trade ties with India like in the past.”  Stanikzai also referred to the Chabahar port developed by India while speaking about relations with Iran, and highlighted its importance for trade and the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline. However, the diehard Haqqani Network (HN) and its affiliates like the Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM - Masood Azhar; Bhawalpur in Pakistan Punjab), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT -Hafiz Saeed;  Muridke in Pakistan Punjab), and members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and others under the guidance of their patrons ISI may oppose any such move. Even Muhammad Yakub, son of late Mullah Omar and the military Chief of the Taliban, may also opt for a more strident posture.

Yet another concern is the emergence of the Taliban-Pakistan-China-Turkey Axis. In particular, due to Chinese interests in exploiting the BRI and the trillion dollars mineral wealth.

The Taliban announced three weeks after the fall of Kabul, the formation of an hard line interim government of 33 members for Afghanistan, filling top posts with veterans of the militant group who oversaw the 20-year fight against the US-led military coalition. The announced list of names consists exclusively of individuals who are members of the Taliban or their close associates.

All of the appointees are men, most are ethnic Pashtun, and many come from the top ranks of the Taliban leadership—calling the cabinet’s temporary nature into question. It is contrary to the "inclusive" government claims and expectations.

Mohammad Hasan Akhund, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister will serve as acting prime minister, while Abdul Ghani Baradar—the former head of the Taliban’s Doha-based political office, has been named as his deputy.  Amir Khan Muttaqi, a relative moderate and member of the Taliban’s Doha-based negotiating team, is the foreign minister. Mullah Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar takes is the defense minister. 

Acting prime minister Mullah Akhund appears as a compromise candidate after reported rivalries among leading military and political figures who will serve under him. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the HNs leader, will be the acting interior minister. Khalil Haqqani, Sirajuddin's uncle, was appointed as acting minister for refugees. Two other members of the Haqqani clan were also named to positions in the interim government. Pakistan's ISI has ensured dominant role for the HN.

The lineup of senior positions includes four former Guantanamo inmates: Noorullah Noori to acting minister of borders and tribal affairs, Abdul Haq Wasiq as acting intelligence director, Khairullah Khair to acting minister of information and culture and Mohammad Fazil Mazloom to deputy minister of defense. A fifth detainee released in the 2014 trade, Mohammed Nabi Omari, was appointed as the new governor of the province of Khost.

Zabihullah, spokesperson, stated "We represent the whole of Afghanistan, and we talk on the level of the whole of Afghanistan and our struggle was based on the whole of Afghanistan. We are not people of one tribe or ethnicity. The new government would protect "the country's highest interest" and uphold Sharia law as interpreted by the Taliban." The militant group said it would name permanent leadership soon.

Women are omitted from new government despite Taliban leaders insisting publicly that women will play a prominent role in society in Afghanistan and have access to education. In recent weeks, the Taliban has signaled women should stay at home, and, in some instances, militants have ordered women to leave their workplaces.

The selection conveys a vision for the future that will do little to allay concerns among foreign governments, as the Taliban seeks international recognition and desperately needed aid. Without access to funds frozen by the US and other nations as well as the International Monetary Fund, Afghanistan faces a deteriorating humanitarian and economic situation. Global leaders and lenders are still waiting to see how the Taliban will treat opposition, women, as well as religious and ethnic minorities.

Haqqani network (HN)

The real "Kingpin" today is the HN -  the most resilient and lethal network - which is an Afghan guerrilla Sunni insurgent group. In the past, its leadership was based in  Miranshah, North Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. The network's strongholds are in Afghanistan's southeastern areas of Paktia Province, Paktika Province, Khost Province, Wardak Province, Logar Province, and Ghazni Province. 

Estimates of the HN's numbers vary between 10,000-15,000.  Historically and today, HN maintains close relations with Al-Qaeda, TTP, JeM, LeT, and IMU. In Northern Afghanistan, HN has a tactical alliance with the IMU. In Western Afghanistan, HN has expanded its support structure from the borders of Pakistan to Iran. sustains close ties with TTP. HN also maintains links with LeT. ISI utilizes HN, LeT, and JeM as proxies for carrying out terror operations.

Haqqani family hails from southeastern Afghanistan and belongs to the Mezi Clan of the Zadran Pashtun tribe. The core structure of HN is largely familial and hierarchical. Many of the group’s prominent leaders graduated from the Dar al-Ulum Haqqaniyya madrassa in Pakistan, the religious educational institution - deeply radical - from which HN derived its name. This Deobandi seminary is where J. Haqqani cultivated a network of militants.   

To expect current HN leadership to "forgive and forget" the killing in 2008 of Jalaluddin's son Omar Haqqani and the drone strikes that killed Jalaluddin's two wives, sister, sister-in-law and eight of his grandchildren followed by many other key leaders and cadres  is patently foolish intelligence deduction. 

  HN is ideologically aligned with the Taliban, who have worked to eradicate Western influence and transform Afghanistan into a strictly Sharia-following state and based on Pashtunwali. Both groups have the common goal of disrupting the Western military and political efforts in Afghanistan and driving them from the country permanently. Jalaluddin (J.) Haqqani realized the importance of Azzam's "foundational Islamic legal decisions declaring the Afghan jihad a universally and individually binding duty borne by all Muslims worldwide." However, while AQ's stated goals are international in scope, the HN has limited its operations to regional matters concerning Afghanistan and Pashtun tribalism.  Initially, the HN's used the Saudi Arabian financiers and other Arab investors to pursue Global Jihad.  The HN's root values are, therefore, primarily religious and nationalist.

J. Haqqani formed the HN in the late 1970s. HN’s first declaration of jihad came in the summer of 1973 after Mohammad Daud Kahan’s coup unseated the Afghan monarch, Zahir Shah. J. Haqqani traveled to Pakistan with other Afghan Islamists for training and support to combat the new Afghan regime. Since the 1970s, HN has forged relationships with a diverse set of state and non-state actors.   HN’s first attack was in 1975, when Jalaluddin and his fighters launched an assault against the pro-Daoud governor in Ziruk district of Paktika province.

J. Haqqani joined the Hezb-i Islami Khalis in 1978 and becoming a Mujahid in Afghanistan. HN was nurtured by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) during the 1980s Soviet–Afghan War by the Reagan Administration.  J. Haqqani commanded the Mujahedeen Army from 1980 to 1992. Throughout its history the HN's operations have been conducted by small, semi-autonomous units organized according to tribal and sub-tribal affiliations often at the direction and support of Haqqani commanders. 

Foreign jihadists recognized the network as a distinct entity as early as 1994, but Haqqani was not affiliated with the Taliban until they captured Kabul. In 1995, the HN pledged allegiance to the Taliban. After the Taliban came to power, J. Haqqani accepted a cabinet-level appointment as Minister of Tribal Affairs.

HN with close ties to the ISI is the primary conduit of the Taliban in dealing with Al Qaeda, including senior al Qaeda members including Osama Bin Laden. HN's relationship with Al-Qaeda dates back to the founding of AQ. Abdullah Azzam and Osama bin Laden both began their careers as volunteer fighters for the Haqqani's in the conflict against the Soviets.  HN cultivated a closer, personal relationship with Osama bin Laden, some of whose earliest Al Qaeda training centers for Afghan Mujahedeen and foreign fighters were organized under HN’s protection across Loya Paktya. 

According to a declassified US government report a training facility belonging to Haqqani was located at Miram Shah in which fighters of Pakistani Punjab, Arab, Kashmir, Uzbek and Afghanistan, all connected with either AQ or the Taliban, and also in Northern Waziristan. HN organized Al Qaeda training centers for Afghan Mujahedeen and foreign fighters  in HN strongholds across Loya Paktya.  HN reportedly facilitated Al Qaeda’s escape during the U.S. battle at Tora Bora in 2001, enabling jihadists to move from Afghanistan into a safe haven in Pakistan.  Today, HN maintains close relations with Al Qaeda in Pakistan.  

 

In northern Afghanistan, HN has increasingly used its alliance with select Islamist militant leaders to renew and intensify violence toward Jamaat-e Islami party members.  HN has a tactical alliance with the IMU. As part of this alliance, HN provides sanctuary and training for IMU militants in North Waziristan, and facilitates select IMU attacks in northern Afghanistan.  Specifically, without HN’s long-standing cooperation with the IMU, it is unlikely that the provincial capital of Kunduz would have fallen to the Taliban in September 2015.

In southeastern Afghanistan, HN has expanded into the provinces of Logar and Wardak, and merged jihadist networks surrounding the southern approaches to Kabul. In western Afghanistan, HN has expanded its support structure from the borders of Pakistan to Iran.

Ties with Al Qaeda remain close, based on ideological alignment, relationships forged through common struggle and intermarriage  as per reports in public domain. A significant part of Al Qaeda remains based in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the core is joined by and works closely with its affiliate group 'Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)'. AQIS operates under the Taliban umbrella from Kandahar, Helmand (notably Baramcha) and Nimruz Provinces. The group reportedly consists of primarily Afghan and Pakistani nationals, but also individuals from Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.

Pakistan has been rejecting that it maintained ties with the HN or used it in a policy of waging a proxy war in neighboring Afghanistan. The HN's tribal connections in Northern Waziristan and the de facto regime that it has established with courts, law enforcement, medical care, and governance have often brought it great support from locals. Its familiarity of terrain, such as mountain passes, also grants them excellent access between Afghanistan and Pakistan. HN maintains close ties with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and has reportedly urged the TTP to refrain from violently engaging Pakistani military forces. HN controlled regions of northern Pakistan have also served as strategic safe-havens for other Islamic militant organizations, such as Al-Qaeda, JeM, LeT (terrorist group sponsored by the ISI) , and members of the IMU. ISI allegedly utilizes HN, LeT, and JeM as proxies for carrying out terror operations in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Following the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the subsequent overthrow of the Taliban government, the Haqqani's fled to the bordering Pakistani tribal regions and regrouped to fight against coalition forces across the border.  J. Haqqani and his forces assisted with the escape of Al-Qaeda into safe-havens in Pakistan. And their actions of providing safe-havens for Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden show the strength of bond and some role in or knowledge of Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden's escape.

Journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad reported that President Hamid Karzai invited c. 2002 the elder Haqqani to serve as Prime Minister in an attempt to bring "moderate" Taliban into the government. However, the offer was refused by Jalaluddin. 

J. Haqqani served as HN’s leader until his son, Sirajuddin Haqqani, began to assume greater command of the group in 2004. After Sirajuddin Haqqani took over the network, HN’s ideological goals have shifted to be far more violent and ambitious.  The more recent history of HN suggests that it is no longer solely based on fundamentalist religious ideology or nationalist separatism. Rather, HN’s use of power to effect political change in the modern era, whether to capture territory, restore a national emirate, or for comparatively less tangible aims, such as helping to create a global Islamic caliphate, is often the result of a complex, pragmatic blending of motives. 

In September 2012, the Obama administration labeled the network as a foreign terrorist organization. After this announcement, Taliban issued a statement arguing that there is "no separate entity or network in Afghanistan by the name of Haqqani" and that J. Haqqani is a member of Pakistan-based the Quetta Shura, Taliban's top leadership council. In 2015, Pakistan also banned the HN as part of its National Action Plan.  In 2016, HN reportedly moved between Miran Shah and Spin Tal and Peshawar in order to avoid the Pakistani Army’s military offensive, Zarb-e-Azb. In 2018, J. Haqqani passed away.

On 26 July 2020, a United Nations report stated that the Al Qaeda group is still active in twelve provinces in Afghanistan and its leader al-Zawahiri is still based in the country, and the UN Monitoring Team has estimated that the total number of Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan were "between 400 and 600 and that the leadership maintains close contact with the HN and in February 2020, "al-Zawahiri met with Yahya Haqqani, the primary Haqqani Network contact with Al Qaeda since mid-2009, to discuss ongoing cooperation".

Antonio Giustozzi, a Taliban expert with the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that Haqqani network has been "getting closer" to Iran as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia cut funding to it. In August 2020, US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran has been offering bounties to Haqqani network to target US and coalition troops in Afghanistan. The US intelligence agencies identified payments linked to at least six attacks carried out by the militant group in 2019 including the Bagram Airfield attack.

HN is largely responsible for the violence in Kabul, and has conducted some of the most notorious attacks against the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan. Under Sirajuddin Haqqani’s leadership, HN has expanded the network’s kidnap-for-ransom campaigns of wealthy and influential Afghans. Islamist militant leaders from Al Qaeda and the Quetta Shura Taliban deliver hostages to HN. 

Voice of America reported that the Taliban gave the HN control over security operations in Kabul on August 19 in the days following the fall of Kabul in the 2021 Taliban offensive. That same day Anas Haqqani met with former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah and Hezb-e-Islami fighter Gulbuddin Hekmatyar seeking a formal transfer of power to the Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar. Rumors circulated that Anas was receiving instructions directly from Sirajuddin Haqqani, who was himself in Quetta, Pakistan.

In sum, HN is the Kingpin/Lynchpin of the conglomeration of terrorist groups in the region. HN’s underlying goal in the post-2001 Afghan conflict primarily focused on eradicating Western influence and reestablishing a Taliban rule in Afghanistan.  HN opposes U.S.-led coalition forces, the establishment of new security forces, and the implementation of new democratic institutions.  The role of HN’s violence varies, but the purpose is often to enforce obedience over its own population, to terrorize and deter rival groups, and to establish the upper hand in the fight, showing the network’s leadership to be strong in times of crisis or a wider civil war. Finally, HN-cum-Taliban is no more restoration of Islamic Caliphate of Afghanistan, but enlarged objective may include liberation of Kashmir  and "helping to create a global Islamic caliphate". 

 

Al Qaeda

Al-Qaeda is a political organization with more moderate and pragmatic outlook. It has sworn loyalty to the Taliban. For al Qaeda, the Taliban’s victory is an epic triumph—the fulfillment of God’s promise to give victory to the believers over the unbelievers. Al Qaeda portrayed the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as “the nucleus of the Islamic state”—that is, the caliphate—“that will rule by God’s pure law.” Even in 2020, Al Qaeda had hailed the Doha agreement as “a great historical victory” and called on Muslims around the world to follow the example set by the Taliban in its commitment to jihad. 

  

Al-Qaeda’s strategy is gradualist and less exclusionary. It believes that Muslims must be educated first on sharia, that the idea of jihad must be popularized, and that Muslims must be convinced to take up arms as the only method of emancipation. It has forged alliances and quietly entrenched itself and its ideas within local communities with the aim of eventually building a pure Salafi state. It has invested heavily in co-opting local Islamist movements and embedding within popular uprisings. In the future, al-Qaeda has the potential to be a greater jihadist threat than ISIS.

Al-Qaeda members believe Christian–Jewish alliance (led by the U.S.) is conspiring to be at war against Islam and destroy Islam. As Salafist jihadists, members of al-Qaeda believe that killing non-combatants is religiously sanctioned. Al-Qaeda also opposes what it regards as man-made laws, and wants to replace them exclusively with a strict form of sharia (Islamic religious law which is perceived as divine law).

Al-Qaeda (founded in 1988) grew out of battlefield bonds forged in the Afghan insurgency against the Soviet Union, redirected toward fighting the West by Osama Bin Laden (born in 1957 in Saudi Arabia to a wealthy construction magnate).  His father's company was renowned  for the construction of palaces for the Saudi royal family and also for restoration of the Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Medina. Bin Laden was well versed in Islamic history, particularly the seventh-century military campaigns of the Prophet Muhammad. As he grew, he started taking part in political causes around the Muslim world. In his early jihad exploits, he helped financing and coordinating the mujahedeen battling the Soviet occupation. 

Bin Laden attracted disaffected recruits who opposed American support for Israel and Middle Eastern dictatorships. When the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 1996, it gave al-Qaeda the sanctuary that enabled it to run training camps and plot attacks, including 9/11. Al Qaeda became an umbrella group for all terrorists operating in Afghanistan. 

One million refugees living in camps located on Pakistan’s side of the Durand Line provided sanctuaries to terrorists to carry out trans-border operations. As per intelligence estimates, Al Qaeda trained well over 10,000 recruits. Some estimates believe that the figure exceeds over 1, 00,000. Since early 1990s, Pakistani-backed and based terrorist groups fighting in Kashmir have increasingly used training camps inside Taliban-controlled areas and POK. They have forged nexus with the underworld Dons with proven smuggling and drug trafficking capabilities, which enabled access to logistical, financial and weapons to support operations on global scale.

The reputation gained from 9/11 helped Al Qaeda to dramatically expand its international footprint. It's affiliates include: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in Sinai Peninsula/Gaza/Palestine, Al-Qaeda in Lebanon, Al-Nusra Front/Tahrir al-Sham, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the National Islamic Front in Sudan, al-Shabab in Somalia, Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), Al-Qaeda in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Al-Qaeda in Caucasus and Russia, the Islamic Jihad in Palestine, Al-Qaeda in Kurdistan, Al Qaeda in Spain, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Al-Qaeda in the Malay Archipelago, Guardians of Religion Organization, Hezbollah, EIJ (Al-Jihad, Jihad Group, Islamic Jihad), PIJ, HAMAS, ANO, Al-Gama at and Al-Islamiyya (IG - the Islamic Group, al-Gama ‘at, Islamic Gama ‘at, Egyptian al-Gama ‘at al-Islamiyya, GI),  Harkat ul-Jihad-i-Islami/Bangladesh or HUJI-B, Tawhid al-Jihad , Ansar al-Sharia, Jund al-Aqsa, Imam Shamil Battalion, Ansaru, Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad etc. Its indirect affiliates include: Taliban, Caucasus Emirate (factions), Fatah al-Islam, Islamic Jihad Union, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the Haqqani Network (HN), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Jemaah Islamiyah, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, etc.     

After the U.S-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, al-Qaeda’s leaders fled to Pakistan or Iran. Many were killed or captured.  A succession of U.S. presidents were quick to declare the group all but defeated. But al-Qaeda shown remarkable resilience. President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq in 2003 proved a boon to the group, fueling the emergence of a new and powerful al-Qaeda affiliate there led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The killing of bin Laden by U.S. Navy SEALs in Pakistan in 2011 dealt a blow to al-Qaeda, but the Arab Spring revolts that year provided fresh opportunities for proliferation of Jihad organizations. It catalyzed al-Qaeda’s transformation from a tight knit group once concentrated in Afghanistan and Pakistan to a sprawling network of franchises across Africa, Asia and the Middle East, ideologically and organizationally decentralized - transnational movement. In Afghanistan, as per UN estimates, Al-Qaeda boasts a presence in at least 15 Afghan provinces and potentially hundreds of members.

In India, Al Qaeda has strong links with JeM, HuM, LeT and the IM. Bin Laden was reportedly running "Harkat-ul Jihad '' in Bangladesh also since 1992 to establish "Islamic Hukumat (rule)" by waging a war and killing progressive intellectuals. The hilly areas of Chittagong cover up their activities.   Their cadres prefer to identify themselves as "Bangladeshi Taliban". In collaboration with Bangladesh, the spread of ‘Islamic Terrorist Crescent’ has also extended to South East and Far East Asia.    

In sum, Al Qaeda has global reach. Its end objectives remain as hitherto fore: drive the Americans out of West Asia. It views that the Taliban’s victory “will clear the path, with God’s help and might, for our Muslim peoples to liberate themselves from the rule of the oppressive tawaghit,” the jihadis’ word for Muslim rulers seen as governing by other than God’s law. It would also pave the way toward “the liberation of Muslim Palestine from Zionist occupation.”  Al Qaeda no longer dominates as it once did. With its leaders’ grip weakening  over the organization, divisions have emerged within the extremist landscape over issues including the use of violence against Muslim civilians.    Now, its affiliates are  more concerned with fighting battles at home than with waging war against the U.S. 

Islamic State

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and also known as Daesh (ISIS) was founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 1999, a Jordanian jihadi, emerged as the leader of the world’s most powerful jihad group - Jamaat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad. For the ISIS, the Taliban victory in Afghanistan is not a triumph at all. It condemns the Taliban for deviation and taking Americans as its "allies".

Aside from shared commitment to violent jihad, the Bin Laden and Zarqawi had little in common. Zarqawi had grown up poor, had done time in prison, and had emerged not just as a religious extremist but also as a hardened ex-convict and a brutal thug.  Zarqawi  assured al Qaeda’s leaders that he was collaborating with and seeking to unite all the jihad factions in Iraq. In December 2004, bin Laden appointed Zarqawi as the leader of a new group, al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (al Qaeda in Iraq - AQI). Between 2014 and 2016, ISIS conquered territory  in both Iraq and Syria, setting up governates (wilayat) to install its rules and laws according to the organization's interpretations of Islam. It circulated the ‘ISIS Khorasan’ maps.

Both ISIS and al-Qaeda are rivals.  ISIS is more of an extremist movement with political goals.  ISIS’s core strategy is to pursue a Salafi state through continuous confrontation both within Muslim-majority countries and outside them. ISIS believes Muslims can be held to an interpretation of sharia today. It is more doctrinaire, less accommodating of non-Salafi trends. It looks on the Muslim Brotherhood founder as an infidel and at the Taliban as an infidel state. For ISIS, the means justify the ends; it has engaged in a war of attrition in Iraq and Syria. ISIS is unwilling to compromise; its behavior is unlikely to change whatever the incentives.

ISIS’s priority has been to destabilize regimes in order to control territory as quickly as possible. It has created a new standard for non state actors and asymmetric warfare. ISIS coerces local populations while advertising to a global audience. But ISIS’s message is zero-sum: you are either with ISIS, or you are an infidel. it acts ruthlessly against those who do not share its hard-line worldview. Its tactics are coercive. In the end, it tends to act unilaterally.  As a caliphate, it claims religious, political, and military authority over all Muslims worldwide. ISIS is believed to be operational in 18 countries. The Taliban ascension to power in Kabul opens up “operating space” for terrorist groups such as ISIS that will draw a psychological boost from the failure of western power. ISIS is unwilling to compromise; its behavior is unlikely to change whatever the incentives. 

In the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and after Zarqawi was killed by a U.S. airstrike in 2006, his successors declared themselves the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) without consulting bin Laden or any other senior al Qaeda figures. In 2010, the ISI came under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

The Islamic State’s declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria gave it a luster in the eyes of radical Islamists across the world, who traveled to the region to join the group, which had managed to build a “state” and propaganda machine unlike anything al-Qaeda had achieved. 

Despite its crushing defeat between 2017-2019 and loss of territory and their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US raid, ISIS is still active in the desert. ISIS maintains its ability to recruit, conduct attacks, exploit gaps, and in some areas replace weakened governance systems. ISIS is unlikely to be defeated in its “core terrain” in Iraq and Syria in the short term due to competing priorities among counter-ISIS actors and decreasing international interest. During Ramadan 2021, ISIS has escalated terror strikes.  

 

           The ISIS affiliates are carrying out large-scale attacks in Africa, justifying the ISIS argument that they are a global organization. However, ISIS groups in Africa are less clearly ideologically orthodox. In Bangladesh, ISIS is exploiting the ongoing Rohingya refugees particularly in the refugee camps to radicalize and recruit cadres. However, despite the initial euphoria, ISIS has not been able to create influence in India. Even the Bangladesh Taliban is also active. 

Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)

ISKP is a wilayah (province) of the Islamic State, and Khorasan specifically refers to the historical region extending across parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Iran. ISKP believes in hard line radical Islamist ideology: establish a global, transnational caliphate that is governed by Islamic jurisprudence with the Caliphate must be a "pure Islamic State" in which members must strictly observe sunna (the Prophet’s traditions).  In 2016, the Islamic State issued a list entitled “Aqidah wa Manhaj al-Dawlah al Islamiah fi al-Takfir” (Islamic State Creed and Methodology of Takfir), which stated that anyone who rejects sharia law will be labeled as kafir (an apostate) and can be executed as a result. The Islamic State’s motto, “baqiya wa tatamaddad” (remaining and expanding), calls on other Muslims to migrate to the group’s fledgling caliphate.

 

ISKP diverged from Al Qaeda ideologically. Unlike the Taliban, whose interest is confined to Afghanistan, ISKP believes in jihad not only to rid its territory of both foreign infidels—nonbelievers of Islam in Jihad global offensive, but also apostates and endorses violence against the local community if they object to the adherence to Sharia and do not conform to Islamic State dogma. For example, ISKP launched numerous attacks on members of Afghanistan’s Hazara Shia minority. 

ISKP stands to benefit more from the U.S. exit and the Taliban rule. It has suffered serious losses and no longer controls territory; but it has a well-defined strategy to capitalize on the new reality. No longer, American airpower dominates the sky overhead and the Afghan Army. It can portray itself as the hard-line jihadi alternative to the Taliban and also Al Qaeda'. By attacking the United States at the Kabul airport in late August, ISKP was not only trying to kill Americans but to demonstrate to the Taliban’s more hard-line supporters that their group had gone soft. In its newsletter, ISIS emphasized that the Taliban were protecting “the Crusaders and their spies” at the Kabul airport. However, the group has only limited appeal in the country. Its extremist ideology is unusually popular. 

The ISKP subscribes to the concept of Tawhid al-hakimiyyah (the unity of governance) and rejects a Muslim leader who does not rule by the entirety of Sharia law. ISKP refuses to acknowledge the Taliban as a legitimate Islamic leader and accuses the Taliban of being “filthy nationalists” for only appealing to a narrow ethnic and nationalistic base instead of committing to a universal Islamic jihad.

ISKP emerged in 2014 with the defection of TTP, Al Qaeda, and Taliban fighters active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The ISIS dispatched emissaries from Iraq and Syria to meet with local fighters, including a number of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) commanders. In January 2015, the Islamic State announced the formation of its “Khorasan” province. Islamic State emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appointed Hafiz Khan Saeed as the first ISKP emir. Khan Saeed had previously served as a TTP commander with responsibility for operations in Orakazi in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), affording the newly formed ISKP deep Pakistani networks through which to recruit. Several TTP commanders responsible for areas of Pakistan’s FATA joined the ISKP and pledged allegiance thereby consolidating astride PakAf border. Its members are both Afghan and TTP members, especially defecting members of the Afghan Taliban who don't see their own organization as extreme enough.  

ISKP spurned the Taliban offer to join “under Taliban banner”. It developed major differences with the Taliban. As part of the global IS network, ISKP seeks to carry out attacks on Western, international and humanitarian targets wherever they can reach them. ISKP condemned the Taliban’s peace negotiations with the U.S.  ISKP considers Taliban militants "apostates", making their killing lawful under their interpretation of Islamic law. ISKP  accused the Taliban of abandoning Jihad and the battlefield in favor of a negotiated peace settlement hammered out in "posh hotels" in Doha, Qatar. 

ISKP had targeted Afghan security forces, Afghan politicians and ministries, the Taliban, religious minorities, including Shia Muslims and Sikhs, US and NATO forces, and international agencies, including aid organizations. IS-K have been blamed for some of the worst atrocities in recent years, targeting girls' schools, hospitals and even a maternity ward, where they reportedly shot dead pregnant women and nurses. U.S. and former Afghan government forces conducted an aggressive campaign against ISKP forces in eastern Afghanistan, killing several of their mid- and senior-level and capturing commanders. The Iranian military has also collaborated with the Taliban to secure Iran’s land border with Afghanistan and deny ISKP fighters freedom of movement. Also,  it has suffered significant casualties in clashes with the Taliban.

However, the relationship between the Afghan Taliban and ISKP has not been uniformly hostile. According to researchers, there are strong links between ISKP and the HN, which in turn is linked to the Taliban. For example, the Afghan Ministry of Defense claimed that at least one 2018 attack claimed by ISKP was in fact carried out by HN fighters. Several major attacks involved collaboration between ISKP, the Taliban's HN and other terror groups based in Pakistan. 

The Taliban launched a campaign to recapture ISKP-controlled territory and degrade ISKP-aligned groups, such as factions of the IMU. Following a sustained campaign, ISKP surrendered to the Taliban in the summer of 2018 in Jowzjan Province.

 

Even after suffering losses, the ISKP regrouped retaining the ability to carry out deadly attacks in Afghanistan. ISKP has made significant inroads into the country’s complex tribal districts particularly astride Pakistan and Afghanistan border - the disputed Durand Line. In May 2019, the Islamic State announced the existence of new provinces in Pakistan and India—areas which had previously fallen under ISKP’s geographic ambit. Throughout 2020, ISKP successfully executed high-profile attacks despite controlling little territory. These included a May 2020 attack on a Kabul maternity ward that killed 24 people and an attack on Kabul University in November 2020 that left 22 people dead.

Today, the ISKPs reach extends far beyond Afghanistan. With its lively presence on social media and encrypted messaging platforms, the extremist group seeks to destabilize South and Central Asia.  It is potentially even more destabilizing than the Taliban, given its potential to reaching an ever-widening audience.

In June 2021, the United Nations estimated the strength of  ISKP  core group of fighters numbering between 1,500 and 2,200 based in provinces such as Kunar and Nangarhar operating dispersed in relatively autonomous cells.  While these groups lack the capability, coordination, or local support to control significant territory, they retained the ability to launch individual attacks. When the Taliban took over in Kabul on 15 August, the group released large numbers of prisoners from Pul-e-Charki jail, reportedly including ISKP and Al-Qaeda militants. These people are now at large. And, there are reports that the Taliban is trying to enlist the ISKP fighters in their ranks including some of the top leaders of ISKP like ‘governor’ of Khorasan wilayat, Abu Umar Khorasan. The fighters are however being offered a chance to save themselves if they join the Taliban. Otherwise, they will be hunted down.

In sum, the ISKP, based in the eastern province of Nangarhar, close to drug and people-smuggling routes in and out of Pakistan, represents a major security challenge for the Taliban government. The August 26 attack on Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul that killed approximately 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. military personnel underscores its capabilities and potency. The withdrawal of U.S. and partner forces from Afghanistan has opened a power vacuum that  provides the group strategic breathing room to recruit and regroup. Its resurgence depends on its ability on how well to attract recruits  now. ISKP most likely will attempt to preserve resiliency through its “replenishable and diverse recruitment pipeline” that draws large numbers of experienced militants from existing groups on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. None can rule out the possibility of the ISKP challenging the Taliban for power and territorial control potentially plunging the country deeper into civil war. 

In the immediate term, ISKP resurgence to recruit and regroup will also depend on how well the Taliban, Pakistan, China, Iran and others deter, dissuade and marginalize ISKP, which is bound to take advantage of the political instability and lack of Taliban counterterrorism capabilities in the face civilian protests against the Taliban government.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or Pakistan Taliban (TTP)

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), is a Pashtun Islamist armed student group that is an umbrella organization of various student militant groups based along the Afghan–Pakistani border. After members of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban flocked into Pakistan in 2001, they orchestrated a campaign as the ‘Talibanization” of FATA. The TTP is often referred to as an umbrella organization representing different militant groups in FATA. Under the TTP, Afghan Taliban leaders worked with local tribal leaders to recruit Pakistanis to fight against US and NATO forces and  later came together to form the TTP in 2007 with about 13 groups united under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud to form the TTP.  

In December 2007, after Baitullah Mehsud death in 2009, Hakimullah Mehsud assumed leadership and served until his death in 2013. Maulana Fazlullah followed until his death in 2018. Now, Noor Wali Mehsud is the TTP leader.  

The TTP receives ideological guidance from and maintains ties with al-Qaeda. According to the USIP report, the TTP’s main objectives included “implementing Sharia law, fighting US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and engaging in jihad against the Pakistani Army” and Pakistani State. The TTP's aim is to overthrow the government of Pakistan by waging a terrorist campaign against the Pakistan armed forces and the state. The key reason behind the creation of the TTP was to present a united front against the Pakistan Army’s operations. The report notes that “the TTP’s aggressive stance towards the Pakistani state contrasted with that of other local militants” and “led to significant levels of internal dissention.” 

The relationship between the TTP and Taliban often runs hot and cold with both opposing and supporting each other at different points of time. Although the TTP and Taliban have similar ideological constructs, the two disagree over the former’s targeting of the Pakistani state. As Islamabad is a key ally of the Taliban, the group has attempted to persuade the TTP to focus its jihad on the Afghanistan administration alone. However, the TTP exists primarily as an organization against the Pakistani state and without that goal, would cease to possess any external relevance.

TTPs fragmentation and lack of cohesive methodology ultimately proved to be the catalyst for its demise, but in the years between 2007 and 2014, the TTP wreaked havoc across Pakistan. In 2012, the TTP was estimated up to 25,000 members, who conducted terrorist attacks across Pakistan, resulting in mass bloodshed and destruction of property. Amongst their most notable attacks were an assault on Pakistan’s largest airbase in 2011, an attack on Karachi International Airport in 2014 and in the same year, a massacre at the Army Public School in Peshawar that killed 150 people, mostly students. The last attack was condemned publicly by the Afghan Taliban.

In 2014, the Pakistani military, aided by a US drone campaign, launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb to eliminate the TTP. The operation was largely successful and was a huge factor behind the decline of the group. 

The TTP depends on the tribal belt along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border, from which it draws its recruits. Many of the militants who originally belonged to the TTP were killed as a result of the military operations that the Pakistan Armed Forces. Some of the TTP militants escaped into Afghanistan and joined ISKP, while others remained part of the TTP. As of 2019, there are around 3,000 to 4,000 TTP militants in Afghanistan, according to a United States Department of Defense report. In 2019, reports suggested that TTP militants were intimidating residents of North and South Waziristan against playing music or letting women leave the house without a male guardian. 

In 2020, the group’s media wing, Umar Media, launched a new website alongside its official magazine which propagates the TTP’s ideology. Significantly, in 2020, Umar Media also announced that two splinter groups, the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and Hizbul Ahrar, had formally rejoined the TTP. The two groups have been responsible for a number of deadly attacks inside Pakistan and have been more active than the TTP itself in recent years.

After years of factionalism and infighting, the TTP under the leadership of Noor Wali Mehsud underwent reorganization and reunification. Between July and November 2020, the Amjad Farouqi group, one faction of the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the Musa Shaheed Karwan group, Mehsud factions of the TTP, Mohmand Taliban, Bajaur Taliban, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, and Hizb-ul-Ahrar merged with TTP. This reorganization has made TTP more deadly and has led to increased attacks.

Since the start of 2021, the TTP has claimed a number of attacks across Pakistan. In the first two months of the year alone, it claimed 32 attacks, the majority of which occurred in FATA. Some analysts believe that the recent resurgence of the TTP will be fuelled further by Taliban rule in Afghanistan. The argument goes that the Taliban legitimize militant Islamic governance and by doing so, encourage their supporters and sympathizers, within and outside of Afghanistan to pursue similar objectives. Emboldened by the Taliban, the TTP could use the group’s success to recruit additional members and revitalize their campaign against the Pakistani state. However, given the TTP’s complicated relationship with the Taliban, it is unclear whether it would be able to count on the latter’s support in that endeavor.

In sum, the TTP has aided the Taliban’s military offensive against the Afghan government, offering valuable logistic support including providing suicide bombers. After the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban, the TTP released a video of its members meeting with senior Taliban leadership. The group was reportedly eager to display its close ties to the Taliban, in recognition of the value that such a relationship would hold with the Pakistani public, many of whom are openly supportive of the Taliban.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Punjab/Punjabi Taliban

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Punjab also called the Punjabi Taliban, was a network of members of banned militant groups based in South Punjab. The group was disbanded in September 2014 and is no longer active. Major factions of the so-called Punjabi Taliban include operatives of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan and Jaish-e-Muhammad, who   support the Kashmir insurgency against India in Jammu and Kashmir. The Punjabi Taliban have reportedly developed strong connections with the TTP, the Afghan Taliban, Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi and various other groups based in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It has increasingly provided the foot-soldiers for violent acts and has played an important role in attacking Qadiyani, Shia, Sufi and other civilian targets in the Punjab. TTP has significant recruits from Punjab-based sectarian organizations also called Punjabi Taliban.

Pakistan and the ISI

Pakistan is known as the breeder or epi-center of global terrorism worldwide. Since 1947, Pakistan used raiders/militants/separatists/terror groups for advancing national security interests. 

People of Pakistan celebrated the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan as their victory.  And, the credit goes to Pakistan Army and the ISI, who has mastered the art and science of promoting terror organizations on its soil, particularly astride the AFPak border and  manipulating and managing the contradictions and conflicts between different terror organizations.

Majority of experts believe that Pakistan and the ISI hold the keys to peace, stability and security in Afghanistan. Even now, the U.S. are in talks with Pakistan despite Pakistanis celebrating the victory in the streets claiming as if it is their own.   

Historically, the role of external actors in Afghanistan is well documented.  The key developments include: in 1980s, the CIA and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) provided arms to Afghans fighting against the Soviet Union; and in collusion with Pakistan helped radicalize and recruit youth from around the world to participate in the jihad through religious schools organized in refugee camps hosting roughly 3 million Afghan refugees. When the victorious mujahedeen eventually formed a government in Afghanistan in 1992, Pakistan was unhappy with the new leadership for they were overly friendly with India. So, Pakistan supported and aided the Taliban to gain control over Afghanistan. After the US-led NATO invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, leaders from the toppled Taliban regime sought refuge in Quetta, Pakistan with fighters confined to the borderlands. According to a report from the Carnegie Endowment Fund, the ISI has been the Taliban’s “principle external patron reportedly providing it with financial resources, training, weapons, logistical support, and (above all) a safe haven in Pakistani territory.”

Pakistan may continue to deny even now but in reality it has a close alliance with the Afghan Taliban. The importance of the ISI to the Taliban is best represented by the appointment of Sirajuddin Haqqani as one of two deputy leaders of the Taliban in 2015.  And, the HN is a ‘veritable arm of ISI’ as described by U.S. intelligence. More important, not only the HN is an integral part of Taliban, but it also has extremely close links with TTP, Al Qaeda, ISKP. It is known to have acted as a go-between and peacemaker between these groups, and also other groups like the JeM, LeT, HuM etc., which are the brain child's of Pakistan's ISI. 

Pakistan's ISI may deny its relationships with a plethora of other separatist terror groups, particularly the ISKP. But under ISI guidance, all terror groups have been cooperating and collaborating to carryout joint operations as per episodic situational requirements. At the same time, they have been brutally targeting each other on various occasions. Former Vice President of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh, had accused the ISKP of being a proxy of ISI. In an interview two years ago, he disclosed that arrested ISKP terrorists had admitted to having received funding and training from Pakistan. He also revealed that communication intercepts had pointed to ISKP cadres being in constant contact with people in Pakistan. 

As per recent UNSC report, “certain attacks can be denied by the Taliban and claimed by ISIL-K, with it being unclear whether these attacks were purely orchestrated by the HN, or were joint ventures making use of ISKP operatives”.

In his book on ISKP, Antonio Giustozzi has written that in 2017 a Pakistani terrorist Aslam Farooqi was made leader of ISKP as part of a deal with the ISI. According to Giustozzi, the deal was that in exchange for the appointment of a leader linked to ISI and cessation of attacks against Pakistan government targets, the ISKP would be given access to safe havens inside Pakistan. Lobbying for the deal was done by the HN. But Farooqi’s appointment split the ISKP. A report last year revealed that at the behest of the ISI, the HN was trying to take control of ISKP but this was being resisted by some of the factions that had emerged after the split.

What Western experts fail to appreciate is that the path to peace, stability and security in the region rests squarely on Pakistan which is hell bent upon pursuing 1000-year Jihad against India to settle scores for the most humiliating 1971 defeat. To expect Pakistan and the ISI to relent and retract now over their long standing demand over Kashmir exposes woeful intellectual bankruptcy particularly with convergence of interests with China to humble and disintegrate modern India.

In the emerging geopolitics complexity and fluidity, to expect any significant breakthrough to restore peace, stability and security in Afghanistan, particularly with China-Pakistan-Turkey axis supporting the Taliban, is quite unlikely. 

The path to peace in the region is Pakistan. Reigning Pakistan is most critical. With Chinese "Big Brother" as an ally "Higher than the Mountains and deeper than the Seas", peace remains utopia and mirage.

 

To sum up, the "Technology Age Crusades" consequent to globalization processes are a distinct prospect. As on date, Jihad terrorism will not go away, but its biggest impact is felt mainly in parts of the world where U.S. interests are limited. In particular, India remains a key end objective for radical Islamists to pursue 1000-year old Jihad to take revenge for their 1971 war ignominy. India can ill afford to adopt a reactive mindset on an episodic basis. 

So, to deter, dissuade, counter and marginalize Technology Age Crusades below the threshold of equilibrium, there is no alternative but to formulate a "Holistic Proactive Strategy" covering the full spectrum of 5 Gen war scenarios, particularly undertaking  psychological offensive through sustained social media initiatives.

            The key issue to ponder over is simple - Is consensus possible over "Holistic Pro active strategy" considering the vicious politics in pursuit of power in democracy? 

The Globalization of Islamic Terror - Technology Age Crusades

            

            In the aftermath of 9/11/2001, the U.S. coined the phrase “Globalization of Terror”. Today, the truly globalized enterprise is terrorism. In retrospect, one can coin a new label - Technology Age Crusades.

 

            Ipso facto, terrorism always tormented mankind from ages immemorial. One should not overlook the virtual wiping out of the Red Indian community in North America; the aborigines in Australia and the absorption of indigenous natives of South America through barbaric means during the ‘European Colonization Era”.

 

            Globalization fundamentally changed the nature of terrorism by being a key motivator and enabler of transnational terrorism. There are five major dynamic transformations due to ongoing globalization processes. One, the intertwining of political and economic ideological motivated movements with social uprisings based on religion and ethnicity, besides lumpen elements criminalizing for personal aggrandizement. Two, terrorists are rapidly exploiting developments in technology and society to modernize their systems. Three, their increasing nexus with Crime Cartels is contributing to their force multiplier effect. Four, competitive media explosion is providing instant coverage to their awesome capability.  Finally, the complexity of the environment is vicious. Terrorists pounce on opportunities provided by such a vicious environment to shape and consolidate their strategies and courses of action. Terrorists may suffer major tactical reverses, but the environment offers them scope to resurface under new labels. 

 

            From a net war perspective, an interesting feature of bin Laden’s Arab Afghan movement is its ability to relocate operations rapidly from one geographic area to another in response to changing circumstances and needs. Arab Afghans have participated in operations conducted by Algeria’s GIA and Egypt’s IG. New generation terrorists are, therefore, far more versatile than their earlier counterparts.  IR has enabled radicals or ideologues to carry out information warfare on a day-to-day basis in an aggressive manner. Its practitioners have used different forms of media to spread their message and attract followers to their cause to include: pamphlets and newspapers  to draw foreign fighters to Afghanistan, Chechnya and Bosnia; Audio recording of speeches by ideological leaders -  cassette tapes; "made for TV" video attacks designed to grab the international spotlight  distributed in storefronts, but eventually they migrated to digital platforms; discussion boards on Internet Relay Chat; jihadist websites; media wings like As-Sahab,  Amaq News Agency and the Dark Web to share propaganda, communicate, make financial transactions, and procure weapons and fraudulent documents. Finally,  the most effective means of recruitment to emerge, however, has been social media. Internet chat rooms, discussion boards and email can create a sense of community among aspiring terrorists. Smartphones enable users to bring their community with them wherever they go. Social media and instant messaging applications like Twitter and Telegram are constantly at their fingertips, providing a sense of belonging and connectedness. 

 

            New generation leadership’s brainstorming, indoctrination and motivational capabilities are extraordinary  - on social media networks. ‘Green Crescent Books” pocket editions have replaced ''Red Books” and they ‘read and re-read them’.  Even ethnic web sites are polarizing people on a supra tribal and clan basis. Furthermore, it is facilitating intimate cooperation between groups, whose origins and ideologies are diverse.  Add to them, the extremist religious cults and sects who are “apocalyptic” and “millenarian (end of the world believers).”  

 

            The major share of the blame post World War 2 era lies at the doorsteps of the U.S. for the ‘Globalization of Terror’, since it is the follow through of the Eisenhower Doctrine of ‘containing communism on its door step’ formulated in 1954.  After the First Oil Shock in 1973-1974, consolidation and protection of ‘oil resources’ in the Persian Gulf region and the sea lanes of West Asia dictated the policies and postures of the U.S. in the region.  When the Shah regime collapsed in Iran in 1974, Pakistan emerged as the frontline “strategic partner’ of the U.S. in the balance of power game in the Middle East. They viewed the Soviet foray into Afghanistan in 1979 as a major threat to their hegemony over the Middle East. It spurned the U.S. to sponsor the Mujahedeen through Pakistan to wage war against Afghanistan and the occupation forces of the Soviet Union thereby creating the “Frankenstein”, they are struggling to tame today. Even until 2050, the oil rich West Asia will continue to be the most sought after target for Islamist terrorists. 

 

            The "terrorist pivot" from the ‘Cradle of Middle East is linked to the ‘Epicenter’ in Pakistan, the ‘Cocoon’ in Bangladesh and the Tsunami in SE Asia  under Pan Islamist banner to establish the ‘Islamic Caliphate’. 

Most important, the growing range of weapons available to would-be terrorists is also a cause for concern: cyber, chemical, biological, radiological, drones and nuclear weapons. add to it, the lethal potential of the biological threat  owing to advances in life sciences, dissemination of technical knowledge on social media and uneven regulatory control of laboratories.

Middle East Conundrum

Middle East is historically known as the "Cockpit of Conflicts".  Post World War 2, the region experienced nearly 80 conflicts  in virtual continuum.  The Major conflicts/crisis include: Arab-Israeli conflict 1948, 1967 and 1973; Cyprus Emergency 1955-1959 and Turkey Invasion in 1974 and Kurdish conflict 1978 - Present; Shatt al-Arab Clashes Iran 1974; Gulf War 1990-1991; Operation Desert Fox 1998; Iraq War 2003-2011; Persian Gulf Crisis 2019 - Present; Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy conflict 2011 - Present; among others. 

The series of internal crisis include: the Egyptian Revolution 1952 and crisis 2011-2014; Iranian Coup 1953 and  Revolution 1979;  Lebanon crisis 1958; Iraqi Revolution 1958, Coup in 1963, Sadr uprising 1980, Civil War 2014-2017 and Insurgency 2017 - Present; Syria Revolution in 1963, Coup in 1966, Islamist Uprising 1979-1982 and Civil War 2011 - Present; Black September in Jordan 1970-1971; Saudi Crisis 1979-1983 and Grand Mosque Seizure 1979. Not to be left out of consideration are endemic crisis in Israel-Palestine clashes in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon and others. 

Radical Islamists suffered reverses post 9/11 in Afghanistan, death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011, set back to the Arab Spring (2011-Present) including the defeat of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. So, the radical Islamist groups shifted their focus inward on the Muslim world or heterogeneous societies in the developing world and less on the Western nations blaming the apostates and authoritarian regimes.  

Ipso facto, wars and violence besides revolutions and counterrevolutions are common features of the countries not only in the Middle East but elsewhere worldwide. Nonetheless, people of the Middle East countries have repeatedly demonstrated their desire for political alternatives far beyond the nihilism of jihadi groups such as the Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS. As protesters and dissidents, people have risked their lives and livelihoods in pursuit of self-determination peacefully and injected public discourse with a new and exciting energy.

At the same time, Governments in Jordan, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates have repackaged themselves as champions of “moderate Islam,” each offering their own nationalist spin on the idea. In doing so, they have sought to counter ideological challenges emanating from Islamist groups. In their view, to elevate the nation is to strengthen the state—and to strengthen the state is to centralize power, increase coercive capacities, and restrict opposition.

If today’s Middle East had a slogan, it would be “the state above all else” that implies diminution of role of religion in society. They justify that stronger, more effective states are better for implementing economic reforms, for combating terrorist networks, and for claiming a monopoly over the use of force. Yet improving states’ effectiveness, at least in the context of the Middle East, tends to also strengthen and entrench their repressive capabilities. 

Thus, autocrats justification to use security threats to shut down dissent. The war on terror allows them to attack their opponents with renewed alacrity. Extremists were all too willing to help confirm this narrative, which also served their ends. 

Viewed in the geopolitics background framework of the Middle East, the clash of ideologies to include moderate and hardliner Islam besides democracy and autocracy may torment the countries even in short and midterm contexts. The Taliban actively supported by Pakistan and its ISI and aided by other radical groups have forced the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan thereby achieving Stage 1 end objective - the establishment of Islamic Emirate.   

To expect radical groups in the Taliban in close alliance with Al Qaeda, the IS-K, Pakistan and the ISI, JeM, LeT, IUM, TTP and others to forego the momentum and  exploit the opportunities available in neighboring regional countries in Muslim dominated regions whose demographics, social and political conditions favor them as part of Stage 2 end objectives to  establish Islamic Emirates in the vulnerable neighboring countries needs pragmatic reconsideration. 

Yes! The Taliban has offered promise “to prevent any group or individual, including  Al Qaeda, from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the U.S. and its allies,” with the aim to gain international recognition and aid to stabilize their economy. In retrospect, it is a strategic ploy or temporary retreat to regroup their resources for their next forays. At best what they may do is to send the radical groups to the other side of the border into Pakistan as part of strategic retreat temporarily. Whilst doing so, raise the threshold of the conflict in Kashmir to the next higher level.

Fundamentalism, Communalism and Fascism

The terms fundamentalism, communalism and fascism are not synonymous. Fundamentalism implies rigid adherence to traditional orthodox beliefs and rituals. By itself also, fundamentalism is anti-social, since it is reactionary in nature and can promote conflicts. Surely, oppressed and underprivileged castes cannot remain as mute spectators to the drama of revivalism of all religions – be it Islam, Sikh, Christian or Hindu, in today's environment.    

As per scholars, fundamentalism is on the wane. In reality, there is little hope for fundamentalism to wane. All religions are facing serious challenges.  The pace of modernization viewed is Americanization or Europeanization or Islamization is a prime cause for concern.  All of them reject foreign influences and reassert traditional values in their backyards.  After all, the religious concept of secularism is an enigma to Islam in particular.  

How can communities fed and bred on super alter egos accept dilution of their state?  Any change in status will naturally provoke strong reactions.  Since religious fundamentalism has developed close interdependency with political fundamentalism (status-quoits postures), geo-political minorities demand cultural autonomy and political autonomy, failing which rise secessionist demands. It must be accepted as a logical follow through.

When fundamentalism is accompanied by an element of coercion or force, particularly state or non state actors sponsored,  it becomes dangerous.  Intra-religious conflict becomes inevitable. Communalism surges.

Communalism implies aggressiveness, animosity and hostility towards other religious communities.  Whenever perversion or politicization of religion takes place, it gives rise to communalism.  It is far more dangerous, particularly when it is by a majority community suffering from perceived hurt psyche of the past, pseudo-secularism and associated with chauvinistic nationalism.  

The interpretation of the term community needs to be pragmatically understood in our context by all.  It can be local, State, Regional and National levels.  For example, Muslims in some urban centers, Districts and States, and Christians in the North East, albeit minority at All India level, are a majority in their own areas.  Its fallout is the polarization and assertion of fundamental Islamic, Christian and Sikh communities to assert for their share of power.

 

Fundamentalism and communalism are, therefore, not purely modern manifestations.  They always existed in the World body politic in the past.  The present day rise of fundamentalism and communalism is the consequence of politico-socio-economic reasons and not purely restricted to psycho-cultural reasons.  If the minority religions face identity crises and suffer from deprivation psyche syndrome of their own making, primarily due to super alter ego states, and want to revive their earlier divisive attitudes, it is unfair to expect the majority to remain as silent spectators. Naturally, the clash of civilizations will be real with disruptive and destructive overtones.

Radical Islamic doctrines – Salafism and Wahhabism – remain a significant driver of radicalization worldwide. Their ideologies skillfully exploit a wide range of perceived or real socio-economic, cultural and foreign policy grievances at a collective or individual level, via sophisticated narratives of ‘victimization’. Ipso facto, the  unemployed younger generation facing very high levels of unemployment and social disenfranchisement fall prey to radicalization. 

To develop effective counter-narratives to extremist ideologies is most vexatious. In fragile and polarized societies, it is necessary to provide unifying discourses and shared visions for the future. Today, mechanisms to rehabilitate radicalized individuals to enable them to reintegrate into society are broadly missing. There is a lack of rehabilitation facilities and de-radicalization  projects. However, reintegration will only be effective if returnees do not encounter the same conditions that pushed them to espouse radical ideologies and leave their countries in the first place.

The lack of a long-term strategy to contain the destabilization attempts coming from outside also needs to be addressed. Strategies to deradicalize returning foreign terrorist fighters, home-grown extremists and lone-actors is a critical priority. Revoking citizenship, prosecution and jail may further escalate the crisis situation. Rather than helping to de-radicalize and rehabilitate radicalized individuals, prisons increasingly serve as incubators for radicalization. Even rehabilitation measures or simply allowing fighters to return to their communities has not paid dividends in the past. Returning foreign fighters to their communities poses the threat of recruiting and grooming vulnerable individuals.

 

The challenge of radicalization in prisons, along with the reintegration of released radicalized prisoners back into communities is a critical priority. There is an urgent need to prevent the indoctrination of vulnerable individuals with dangerous ideologies, especially in prisons. It is also crucial to further develop programs for the rehabilitation and reintegration of (former) terrorists to minimize the chances of future  violence. 

The four pillars de-radicalization strategy is ‘prevent, protect, pursue, and respond’. Identification of the underlying trends and causes of radicalization must take into consideration the national and local contexts. There is no one-size-fits-all formula. A carefully assessed and balanced, multifaceted response and comprehensive approaches are critical. 

The strategy of neutralization of the ideological component of radicalization calls for a multifaceted response that includes the mobilization of expert knowledge, the promotion of liberal democratic principles (through awareness campaigns and education), and the empowerment of local players to reverse the radicalization processes of vulnerable individuals.

De-radicalization experts must be associated with the conception and implementation of programs. The need is for more targeted involvement. The root causes of radicalization are context-driven. Even within the countries themselves, local dynamics may differ.

Greater focus on ‘whole-of-society’ approaches and greater involvement of women, youth, and civil society, victims of terrorism, and religious community leaders as agents of change in society. For example, more representatives of the younger generation should be invited to participate in the planning of national strategies. Active engagement of frontline workers, including teachers, police officers, healthcare workers, probation staff and relevant local authorities is vital for  capacity-building on the critical role that they can play in countering radicalization and de-radicalization. 

To reconcile and coordinate different initiatives at both the Central and State levels. All activities need to be thought of as complementary and mutually supportive. Projects and programs in place call for careful design and coordination, in an effective and targeted manner. 

Social and economic inclusion are essential. Given that citizens in the region appear to be strongly influenced by religious figures as well as by family and friends, it is crucial that grassroots-level participation is encouraged in both the planning and implementation stage of ‘whole-of-society  efforts to counter extremism. 

 

Funding should privilege concrete programs and projects that have an impact on communities (e.g. ‘whole-of-society’ approaches), support the work of frontline practitioners and reach out to the most vulnerable people. 

 

Nature of Religions - Secularism is Mirage

History of religions reflect a number of commonalities; but also contradictions. The world's oldest religions include: Hinduism (founded around the 15th – 5th century BCE); Zoroastrianism (10th – 5th century BCE); Judaism (9th – 5th century BCE); Jainism (8th – 2nd century BCE); Confucianism (6th – 5th century BCE) and Taoism (6th – 4th century BCE); and Buddhism (6th – 5th century BCE).

As per data available,  followers of Christianity constitute 2.382 billion 931.11%), Islam 1.907 billion (24.9%), Secular/Nonreligious/Agnostic/Atheist 1.193 billion (15.58%), Hinduism 1.161 billion (15.16%), Buddhism 506 million (5.06%), Chinese traditional religion 394 million (5%), Ethnic religions excluding some in separate categories 300 million (3%). All others religions are insignificant. By far, Hinduism is, therefore, the oldest surviving religion. 

First, all religions, without exception, are mostly based on legend and myth; some based on various AVATARAS; others on Prophets; and some others based on revelations.  In fact, all of them were evolved/introduced as higher order religions and took centuries to grow and consolidate, but also decayed and adapted according to situational requirements.  Second, all religions laid foundations to various societies and governments, and re-ordered structures whenever necessary, besides attempting to provide spiritual salvation to the people. 

Whereas Christianity is in pursuit of emergence of kingdom of God on the earth, Islam claims to be in search of human unity and to usher peace in the world. Competition and conflicts are, therefore, real and cannot be avoided.  If so, secularism is utopia or mirage.

Ipso facto, all religions are politico-socio-economic in their nature.  Of course, all of them are contesting for what they perceive to be their fair share of power in all fields.  For achieving success/ consolidation, they need to retain their identity and expand their base amongst the people.  Since the basis of Christianity and Islam in particular are blind faith and super alter ego, the scope for radicalism is relatively more.  In particular, when the people succumb to the lure of belief/ acceptance/ dogma and the unreasoning regime of a self-perpetuating and self-aggrandizing clergy, they become more confrontationists in their approach.  Finally, modernization and westernization is viewed as a major threat by all of them. The more directive the control, the less attractive and sway over the literate masses, except when in trouble.

In reality, all religions have their fair share of liberals, moderates, radicals, obscurantist’s, fundamentalists, communalists and militants. Who exercises control of a particular religion at a given point of time depends on their position of swing on the pendulum. In fact, loudness and glamorization characterizes practices of all religions with utter disregard to other sensitivities – blatantly public and outward Vis a Vis rationally private. Even Hindu militancy, once aroused, can demolish others, just as it had done down Buddhism in the past. 

The conflict between religious minorityism and majorityism holds dangerous portends for posterity. Both intra and inter religious conflicts will remain endemic in our context. 

In sum, the nature of all religions is all encompassing – no pure white or grey or black. Since they govern the dynamics of Indian society, a fuller understanding is an imperative. Our society is going through an enormous range of challenges. Automatically, it suggests inescapability of inducing tremendous qualitative transformations in our social fabric in a spirit of understanding, accommodation and peaceful co-existence. If left to the Saints, Priests, and Mullahs or militants, horrendous barbarism may be distinct prospect. 

Finally, a majority of rulers, historically, always patronized religions and used it to protect their political interests. Even Mahatma Gandhi is responsible for using religion as the basis of developing nationalist fervor during the freedom struggle. So, the modern phenomenon of mixing politics with religion is as old as humanity itself and should not be viewed disturbingly. The scope for their separation is, therefore, a utopian deal in our context. Anyway, it is unachievable by a mere passing of a legislative edict or act. Even a totalitarian Nation like USSR could not suppress and wipe out the religious aspirations of people.

Secularism

The question that needs to be addressed is “is secularization possible in India or worldwide’? Secularism is a virtual impossibility. 

Respect and reciprocity are imperatives for the success of secularism particularly in pluralist diverse societies with large Muslim populations like that of India. After all, Islam believes in monotheism and considers itself as "religion par excellence", believes in Jihad against co-religionists  and other religionists as "Kafirs" to achieve the long term end objective of the "Global Caliphate".

  

The understanding of the meaning of the word ‘Secular’ is, therefore, a vital step.  Many intellectuals classify it as a national value.  My appeal to them is that it has many divergent interpretations.  Hence, it should not be termed as a national value or ideology.  

As a concept, in the more advanced countries of Western World, secularism may appear to have made a tremendous breakthrough.  However, it is not also true. Today, even in the U.S. the "Right Wing White Supremacist organizations" are quite active to reassert their dominance.

Most significant for everyone to understand that the term secularism is a European imposition - originally European in conception. It is a derivative of the Latin word “Saeculum” meaning time cycle, eternity, era, world. Its modern usage came through the Church, which differentiated word-oriented priests from spirit oriented regular priests.  

As per Oxford Dictionary, the term ‘secular’ means pertaining to the present world, or, to things not spiritual; Civil not ecclesiastical; not concerned with religion and secularism means the belief that the state, morals, education and so on should be independent of religion. 

As per German Social thinkers, Max Weber and Ferdinand Tonniers, it is a sociological concept referring to “the decrease in the meaning of organized religions as a means of social control, or as the result of an accepted shrinkage of the range of religious ideas and norms.

During the 17th Century, it referred to the condition of a thing, a territory or an institution that has been separated from the Church. Only during the 19th century, the term came to mean the process of deconsecrating and loss of faith. 

In the course of evolution of European History, it acquired a political meaning – a doctrine concerning the state and the religion. In its classical form, it left the spirit oriented choices to the individuals and gave world oriented objectives to the State. Thus, classical secularism did not limit the individual’s freedom to pursue religion. In fact, it envisaged the state to guarantee the individual freedom, but limited its authority to worldly functions only. . 

Most important, religious organizations had no say in political decision making – Europe left Gods alone after waging centuries of religious warfare over the above issue. They left religion to the care of individuals, with no authority from above dictating beliefs or religious practices, which constituted a cultural revolution, called secularism – freedom from religion or State non-intervention.

However, Marx perceived that religion is an anti-national superstition from the primitive age, which prevents people from living in reality and emancipating themselves.  So, the Marxists obsession that religion is an evil, because it is anti-rational.  The Indian Leftists version of secularism is equal disrespect for all religions.  Their focus is more on developing collective consciousness.  It is yet another experiment or social revolution attempted in various communist countries, but failed. 

What Leftists fail to recognize is that religious consciousness is nothing but awakening to the inner reality of the individual – self consciousness.  It is the first and basic step of Hindu philosophy designed to promote collective consciousness are inextricably intertwined or two sides of the same coin.  Thus, one of the underlying reasons for communism to fall in an impoverished country such as ours.

In reality, the rise of Islam has been largely done by the Sword.  The infiltration of Christianity has been more subtle.  The rise of Sikhism was more to protect the indigenous religious culture being swept by the rising tide of Islam and Christianity.  It is also a fact that historically even Akbar failed to introduce Deen-e-llahi – a syncretic religion.  Whatever people may loudly proclaim that Indian culture is intrinsically secular is a misneamour or false propaganda.

Is it true that Indian culture is intrinsically secular?  The study of history, and in the making, does not give credence to such theories.  Buddhism and Jainism – the two off-shoots of Hinduism – have almost been wiped out from the land of their origin.  Had secularism been the hallmark of ancient Indian culture, surely such higher order Hindu off-shoots would not have been almost wiped out.

Mahatma Gandhi’s slogan ‘sarva dharma samabhava’ was an attempt or experiment to forge an Indian brand of secularism, which failed miserably in 1947 and the rest is history.  That it failed when relentlessly pursued by such a charismatic leader of the stature of Gandhi in 1947 has a vital lesson for all of us, in that, it cannot succeed in posterity also unless a new AVATARA occurs.

Even the Hindu philosophy based on Sanatana Dharma thought may provide a path to achieve secularism.  But, will other religions accept it and follow it. In the present day context, Sri Satya Sai Baba’s philosophy propagates secularism, but by peaceful overtures to people.  

Religious tolerance, freedom and harmony are the keys to secularism.  It is also independent of politico-economic facets of society.  Whereas in reality, secularism as a religious ideology has varied forms. Its divergent multi-interdependency and inter-relationships with various politico-economic developments are real.    

At least, as a first step, it is vital to understand various brands of secularism in vogue to include: State Non-intervention or Freedom for all religions; Derelgionization; Neutrality of State; Selective Secularism or Separation of politics from religion; Sarva Dharma Samabhava or Equal respect for all religion; Sanatana Dharma or Liberal Secularism; Hindutva or Positive Secularism; Religious Tolerance/ Harmony; and Equal disrespect for all religions.

Ironic but true, there is no definition of secularism or its true meaning in the Constitution. And, the term is used loosely used for political purposes.

Considering the raise of Islam and the prospects of proliferation of "Technology Age Crusades" spilling over into modern India, there is no alternative but for the Hindu majority to prepare to counter - deter and dissuade - the radical Islamists forays in our backyards in collusion with local radical activists. "Wake Up Hindu KHUMBAKHARNAS" from your deep slumber to save the only ancient religion to survive in its own soil. 

List of Radical Islamist Groups

1. Al-Shabab (Africa),

2. Al Murabitun (Africa),

3. Al-Qaeda (Afghanistan),

4. Al-Qaeda (Islamic Maghreb),

5. Al-Qaeda (Indian Subcontinent),

6. Al-Qaeda (Arabian Peninsula),

7. Hamas (Palestine),

8. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Palestine),

9. Popular Front for the Liberation of (Palestine),

10. Hezbollah (Lebanon),

11. Ansar Al-Sharia-Benghazi (Lebanon),

12. Asbat al-Ansar (Lebanon),

13. ISIS (Iraq),

14. ISIS (Syria),

15. ISIS (fungus)

16. ISIS (Libya)

17. ISIS (Yemen)

18. ISIS (Algeria),

19. ISIS (Philippines)

20. Jund al-Sham (Afghanistan),

21. Maurabitau (Lebanon),

22. Al Abdullah Azzam Brigades (Lebanon),

23. Al-Etihad Al-Islamia (Somalia),

24. Al-Harmain Foundation (Saudi Arabia),

25. Ansar-al-Sharia (Morocco),

26. Morocco Mudzadine (Morocco),

27. Salfia Jihadia (Morocco),

28. Boko Haram (Africa),

29. Islamic Movement of (Uzbekistan),

30. Islamic Jihad Union (Uzbekistan),

31. Islamic Jihad Union (Germany),

32. DRW True-Religion (Germany)

33. Fajr Nusantra Movement (Germany)

34. DIK Hildesium (Germany)

35. Jaish-e-Muhammad (Kashmir),

36. Jaish al-Muhajirin Wal-Ansar (Syria),

37. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (Syria),

38. Jamaat Al Dawa Al Quran (Afghanistan),

39. Jundallah (Iran)

40. Quds Force (Iran)

41. Kata ' ib Hezbollah (Iraq),

42. Al-Etihad Al-Islamia (Somalia),

43. Egyptian Islamic Jihad (Egypt),

44. Jund Al-Sham (Jordan)

45. Fajr Nusantra Very (Australia)

46. Society of the Revival of Islamic Heritage (Terror Funding, Worldwide Offices)

47. Taliban (Afghanistan),

48. Taliban (Pakistan),

49. Tehrik-i-Taliban (Pakistan),

50. Army of Islam (Syria),

51. Islamic Movement (Israel)

52. Ansar Al Sharia (Tunisia),

53. Mujahedeen Shura Council in the Environment of (Jerusalem),

54. Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (Libya),

55. Movement for Venice and Jihad in (West Africa),

56. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Palestine)

57. Teweed-Salem (Al-Quds Army)

58. Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (Morocco),

59. Caucasus Emirates (Russia),

60. Dukhtaran-e-Millat Feminist Islamists (India),

61. Indian Mujahedeen (India),

62. Jamaat-ul-Mujahedeen (India)

63. Ansar Al-Islam (India)

64. Students Islamic Movement of (India),

65. Act of Mujahedeen (India),

66. Hizbul Mukden (India)

67. Lashkar-e-Islam (India)

68. Jund al-against (Algeria),

69. Turkistan Islamic Party,

70. Egyptian Islamic Jihad (Egypt),

71. Great Eastern Islamic Raider s' Front (Turkey),

72. Act-ul-Jihad al-Islami (Pakistan),

73. Tehrik-e-Nafz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (Pakistan),

74. Lashkar-e-Taiba (Pakistan)

75. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (Pakistan)

76. Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (Pakistan)

77. Jamaat ul-Ehrar (Pakistan),

78. Act of Mujahedeen (Pakistan),

79. Jamaat ul-Furqan (Pakistan),

80. Act of Mujahedeen (Syria),

81. Ansar Al-Din Front (Syria),

82. Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Syria),

83. Jamah Anshoroot Daulah (Syria),

84. Nour Al-Din Al-Zenki Movement (Syria),

85. Liva Al-Haqq (Syria),

86. Al-Tauheed Brigade (Syria),

87. Jund Al-Aqsa (Syria),

88. Al-Tauheed Brigade (Syria),

89. Yermook Martiers Brigade (Syria),

90. Khalid Ibn Al-Walid Army (Syria),

91. Hizb-e-Islami Gulbuddin (Afghanistan),

92. Jamaat-ul-Ehrar (Afghanistan)

93. Hizb ut-Tahrir (Worldwide Caliphate),

94. Hizbul Mujahedeen (India),

95. Ansar Allah (Yemen),

96. Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (USA),

97. Jamaat Mujahedeen (India),

98. Jamaah Anshrut Tauheed (Indonesia),

99. Hizbut Tahrir (Indonesia),

100. Fajr Nusantra Movement (Indonesia),

101. Jemah Islamiah (Indonesia),

102. Jemah Islamiah (Philippines),

103. Jemah Islamiah (Singapore),

104. Jemah Islamiah (Thailand),

105. Jemah Islamiah (Malaysia),

106. Ansar Dine (Africa),

107. Osbat al-Ansar (Palestine),

108. Hizb ul-Tahrir (Group Connecting Islamic Caliphates Across The World Into One World)

109. Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order (Iraq)

110. Al Nusra Front (Syria),

111. Al-Badr (Pakistan),

112. Islam 4 UK (UK),

113. Al Ghurba (UK),

114. Call to Submission (UK),

115. Islamic Path (UK),

116. London School of Sharia (UK),

117. Muslims Against Crusades (UK),

118. Need 4 Khilafah (UK),

119. The Sharia Project (UK),

120. The Islamic Dawah Association (UK),

121. The Sawier Sect (UK),

122. Jamaat ul Furqan (UK),

123. Minbar Ansar Deen (UK),

124. Al-Muhajiron (UK),

125. Islamic Council of Britain (UK),

126. Ahlus Sunnah Wal Jamah (UK),

127. Al-Gama ' a (Egypt),

128. Al-Islamiyya (Egypt),

129. Armed Islamic Men of (Algeria),

130. Salafist Group for Call and Combat (Algeria),

131. Ansaru (Algeria),

132. Ansar-al-Sharia (Libya),

133. Al Ittihad Al Islamia (Somalia),

134. Ansar Al-Sharia (Tunisia),

135. Shabb (Africa),

136. Al-Aqsa Foundation (Germany)

137. Al-Aqsa Martier s' Brigades (Palestine),

138. Abu Sayyaf (Philippines),

139. Aden-Abayan Islamic Army (Yemen),

140. Ajnad Egypt (Egypt),

141. Abu Nidal Organization (Palestine),

142. Jamah Anshrut Tauhid (Indonesia)

India

As per Ministry of Home Affairs data of 1 March 2020, only 17 Islamist terror  groups are banned in India: Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI); Indian Mujahedeen (IM), all its formations and front organizations; LeT; JeM; HuM/Harkat ul-Ansar; Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM); Al-Umar Mujahedeen; Jammu and Kashmir Islamic Front (JKLF); United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA); Deendar Anjuman; Al-Badr; Jamaat-ul-Mujahedeen; AQIS; Dukhtaran-e-Millat; Organizations listed in the Schedule to the U.N. Prevention and Suppression of Terrorism (Implementation of Security Council Resolutions); ISIL /ISIS, ISKP and all its manifestations; and Tehreek-ul-Mujahedeen and all its manifestations

 

South Asia Portal Terrorism: Additional Proscribed Terrorist/Extremist  Groups

As per South Asia Portal Terrorism, there are over 36 additional groups to include: Al Ummah; Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI); Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Jammu and Kashmir; Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front – Yasin Malik faction; Jammu and Kashmir Islamic Front (JKIF); Al Rahmah Welfare Trust Organization; Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) Ex-SSP; Al Harmain Foundation; Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation (FIF); Hizb-ul-Tahrir; Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA); Islamic Jihad Union (IJU); Islam Mujahidin; Islamic Students Movement of Pakistan (ISMP); Islami Tehreek Pakistan (Ex TJP); Jaish-e-Islam; Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JuD); Jameet-ul-Ansar, Jamaat-ul-Furqan; Jundullah; Khair-un-Naas International Trust (Splinter Group of Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JuD); Khuddam-ul-lslam (Ex-JeM); Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ); Lashkar-e-Jhangvi - Al-Alami (LeJ-A); Millat-e-lslamia Pakistan (Ex SSP); Rabita Trust; Sipah-i-Muhammad Pakistan (SMP); Sipah-i -Sahaba Pakistan (SSP); Tariq Geedar Group (TGG); Tahafuz Hadudullah; Tehreek-e-Azadi-Jammu & Kashmir (TAJK); Tehrik-e-Jaffria Pakistan (TJP); Tehreek-e-lslami; Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); 313 Brigade; and Al-Rashid Trust. 

Northeast India

There are over 15 Islamist terror groups operating in the Northeast India to include: Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), Harkat-ul-Mujahidin (HuM), Muslim United Liberation Front of Assam (MULFA), Muslim Volunteer Force (MVF), Independent Liberation Army of Assam (ILAA), Liberation Islamic Tiger Force (LITF), Islamic Security Force of India (ISFI), People's United Liberation Front [PULF], Islamic Sewak Sangha [ISS], Harkat-ul-Jihad-ul-Islami (HuJI). Add to them, Jama'atul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB); Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B); and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) aiding them across the border. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) to many insurgent organizations and networks in Northeast India, has unabatedly continued.