Part 3 - Where Does India Stand in the Drone Technology Age?
THE DRONE AGE
The "Drone Age" dawned during the Vietnam War for reconnaissance in early 1970. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Israeli military deployed modified U.S. drones for surveillance and as decoys. Only around 2000 did the US weaponize drones, adding Hellfire anti-tank missiles onto the Predator.
Most importantly, Unarmed Aircraft Systems (UASs) or UAVs and UACVs are cheap, easy to make, less escalatory than fighters, autonomous in future models and does not involve risk of lives. UASs will likely have significant utility for both broad-based competition and warfare in the future. UASs combine both platforms and systems capable of collecting intelligence over vast geographic areas, striking targets if necessary, and operating in a contested environment. They can operate in close, short and mid range and as endurance systems.
Furthermore, Drones are easy to weaponize. Even commercial drones can carry a 1,000-pound payload. Besides, even low-powered drones can deliver biological weapons or nuclear materials. They can hover, which allows them to stay on target, that initially made drones so essential for reconnaissance in warfare and for tracking the enemy. In 2017, a diesel-powered drone, the Vanilla Aircraft VA001, conducted a five-day continuous flight—landing with three days of fuel left to spare.
The U.K. conducted 398 drone strikes in Iraq and Syria between 2014 and 2019. Nonstate actors are also employing drones. In Syria and Iraq, ISIS launched 60 to 100 drone attacks every month in 2017. In 2018, Syrian rebels fighting Russian forces strapped explosives to drones constructed from little more than a small engine, packing tape, plywood, and plastic. Over the first nine months of 2021, Houthi rebels launched 33 missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia. As per public domain reports, 102 countries have active military drone programs.
UASs or UAVs and UACVs have played an important role in warfare over the past two decades - effectively employed in Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and the Ukraine war in 2022 - including terrorism and counterterrorism operations. For example, Azerbaijan effectively utilized UASs as part of a combined arms approach—including with fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, loitering munitions, guided missiles, and artillery—to reverse Armenia’s three decades of control over large swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh. Also, in Ukraine, both Russia and Ukraine have employed UASs as part of combined arms warfare, a notable shift from their in tracking and targeting terrorists in the past two decades, to improve battlefield awareness without risking loss of life whilst conducting offensive and defensive operations.
Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) provide naval support roles such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), mine countermeasures, inspection and identification, oceanography and payload delivery. AUVs of the largest class can perform attack roles such as anti-submarine warfare and time-critical strikes.
In futuristic battlefield scenarios, drones have a particularly destructive potential when enabled with artificial intelligence (AI). Most salient is the danger from drone swarms: massive numbers of drones communicating and coordinating with one another using AI to destroy a preprogrammed target. Drone swarms should be thought of as an emerging arms control challenge, as they are exceedingly difficult to counter or control. In 2020, China showed a Hummer-like vehicle that can launch a swarm of 48 drones, each carrying a high-explosive warhead.
In sum, UASs are heralding a “revolution in military affairs,” which will fundamentally reshape military doctrine, organization, force structure, operations, and tactics. In the future, UASs will likely play a critical role conducting several types of missions as part of combined arms warfare, including:
· Domain awareness and early warning;
· Battlefield awareness;
· Targeting for stand-off attacks;
· Strike;
· Electronic warfare; and
· Information operations.
UASs will be integrated into a broader battlefield network that includes fifth-generation fighters; aerial refueling aircraft; long-range bombers; cruisers and destroyers; satellites; carrier strike groups; land-based expeditionary advances bases; command- and-control centers; long-range fires; and other platforms and systems. In response to the growing use of UASs by state and non-state actors, there will also be a growing need to adopt counter-UAS tactics, techniques, procedures, and capabilities.
Already, competition involving the United States, China, Russia, and other countries is global in scope. and cover significant expanses of the land, air, maritime, cyber, and space domains. While the technology for UASs has evolved, the most significant change is how UASs are being used as part of combined arms warfare and what this suggests about the future.
Furthermore, the value of the global drone market is nearly $30 billion. As of 2020 there were 1.4 million recreational drones and about 500,000 commercial drones registered in the United States. The uses are diverse: capture high-quality photographs and video, but they can also map terrain, monitor crops, forecast weather, and assist with search-and-rescue operations. Perhaps most revolutionary is the potential effect drones could have on shipping, deliveries, and transportation.
Drones have the potential to revolutionize life for the better, offering everything from faster deliveries to more efficient farming to smarter weather forecasts. To preserve those benefits while mitigating the costs, Washington needs to take a fundamentally different approach: anticipating the many dangers from drones, rather than responding to them as they arise. Otherwise, as with the Internet, it risks losing control.
Yet, Drones are still in their infancy in terms of widespread adoption and technological evolution, and there is still time to address their risks, before losing control. India must address the security implication of emerging technology. To protect critical infrastructure, policy-makers not only must plan “national counter-drone network”, but also regulate drones. Drones are vulnerable to hacking and espionage as well, especially as their operating systems grow more sophisticated and remotely operable.
Drone warfare is one of the most important international security developments of the twenty-first century. Armed drones are proliferating rapidly, and drone warfare is thus likely to become even more prevalent in coming years. The US, Russia and China are in a race to be the next drone superpower besides few other nations including Israel and Turkey. They are investing large sums in developing unmanned vehicles.
China's stealth drones missiles have surpassed and threaten the U.S. In late September 2022, the world received its first look into the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Squadron. The Chinese arsenal has showcased WL-2, GJ-2, WL-3, FH-901, WL-1E, WL-10A and FH-97A with dramatic effect, showing footage of targeting aerial platforms and ground vehicles. The entire series of "Feihong" brand products were collectively displayed at the 13th China Air Show, including FH-901 patrol swarm system, FH-902 individual fixed-wing UAV system, FH-91 reconnaissance UAV system, FH-96 long-endurance UAV system, FH-92A inspection and attack integrated UAV system, FH-95 medium and long-range multi-purpose UAV system and other "fist" products. very similar to XQ-58A,
Country | System | Weapon In kgs | Range, in Kms | Endurance In Hrs | Altitude, Feet |
|
USA | MQ-1 Predator MQ-9 Reaper MQ-20 Avenger MQ-1 Gray Eagle X-47B X-45A RQ-B Global Hawk MQ-8 C Fire Scout XQ-58A Valkyrie CQ-10 SnowGoose RQ-21 Blackjack RQ-170 Sentinel | Na 1,700 Na Na 2,000 2,000 Na 318 Na 500 lbs 39 lbs Na | 22,800 1,900 25,000 Na 3,900 2,400 1,250 280 203 3,425 50 Na | 34+ 14 full load 18 25 Na Na 24 12 15 Na 16+ 5 to 6 | 60,000 50,000 ft 50,000 ft 29,000 ft 42,000 ft 40,000 ft 25,000 ft 20,000 ft 20,000 ft 45,000 ft 20,000 ft 50,000 ft | R & S role Op 25,000 ft Sea Avenger 12 Missiles Navy Guided Bomb Missiles
Navy
R & S |
CHINA | CH-1 CH-3 CH-4 CH-5 CH-6 | 4.5 60-80 345 1000 450 | 740 960 5,000 20,000 Na | 6 12 30/12 60/12- 20 | 0000 13,125 ft 22,960 ft 9 Kms 15 Kms | Recce & Surv First UCAV Identical MQ-9 12x AR-1 Msls
|
WL-3 WL-10 | 2300 400 | 10,000 | 40 32 | Na Na | PL-10E AAM | |
WJ-700 WJ-600AD | Yes Yes | Na | 20 5 | Na Na |
| |
TB-001A | 1200 |
| 35 at 1000 kg payload | Na |
| |
GJ-11 | na | 4,000 | na | Na | Stealth, Autonomous, J-20 Control | |
FH-97A | 250 | 1000 radius | 24 | Na | Stealth 12 cruise msls | |
ISRAEL | Heron 1 Super Heron Hermes 900 Dominator | Na Na Na Na | n/a 1,000 2,500 300 | 52 45 36 20 | 33,000 ft 30,000 ft 30,000 ft n/a |
|
RUSSIA | Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B Inokhodets-RU (Sirius) Altius-U | 2,000 450 1,000 | 3000 Na 10,000 | Na 40 24 | Na 39,000ft 39,000 ft | Stealth |
TURKEY | Bayraktar TB2 Bayraktar Akıncı Bayraktar Kızılelma
| 150 1,350 1,500 | 4,000 7,500 | 27 25 | 18,000 ft 38,000 ft 35,000 ft | Laser guided bomb/rocket BVRAAMs Stealth |
IRAN | Kaman 22 | 300 | 3,000 | 24 | 26.000 ft | Missiles (Msl) |
PAKISTAN | Burraq |
| 1,000 | 12 | 24,606 ft | Msl/Bombs |
INDIA | Rustom | Na | 300 | 24 | 35,000 |
|
China has over 1650 Drones of all types including: miniature, micro (MAVs), and unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs), unmanned blimps, and rotary-wing UAVs. Add to them, Unmanned airships/blimps, Unmanned cyclogyros, Unmanned helicopters, Unmanned coaxial helicopters, Unmanned multirotors, Unmanned tricopters, Unmanned quadcopters, Unmanned hexacopters, Unmanned octocopters, Unmanned ornithopters, Unmanned powered paragliders, V/STOL UAVs, Lift augmented ducted fan V/STOL UAVs etc.
UAV battalions are integral to China's army brigade combat team of PLA Ground Forces. Also, the VT-5U light tank in the tank battalion is equipped with a vehicle-mounted UAV, which can take off independently, ensuring the tank's aerial vision and enhancing its battlefield situational awareness. The VT-5U also has the capability of "manned-unmanned conversion." In high-risk combat situations, VT-5U crews can get out of the vehicle if necessary and fight with a remotely controlled tank, turning the king of land warfare into an unmanned combat vehicle. Revolutionary doctrinal changes are in the making.
Also, UACV units are part of PLA Air Force. The latest FH-97A with stealth design, a new type of autonomous UAV formation system, that can form a dense formation and efficiently coordinate with manned combat aircraft provide it with intelligence, information and firepower support to perform air superiority operations, air defense suppression, and air escort missions, has been exhibited. With two engines, the FH-97A has improved the flight speed and maneuverability and its reliability. Loiter capability is 6-hours, quickly reach combat zones within a radius of 1,000 kilometers and conduct all-day, all-weather, and all-territory battlefield situational awareness missions and is equipped with intelligent and smart ammunition. It can carry 8 smaller, intelligent AAMs. The drone carries pods with different functions, including radar jamming, reconnaissance and communications jamming, as well as fuel tanks, extra missiles and precision guided weapons. Its systems are difficult to jam good survivability. It has conventional wheeled take-off and landing on runways and also rocket booster for complete take-off and landing under special conditions, and carry out arrested recovery on vessels.
The FH-97A can carry reconnaissance payloads and fly ahead of the flight formation to make contact with the enemy first, provide fire control guidance data to the fighter, allowing the latter to fire faster than the enemy. When cooperating with a fighter jet, the FH-97A can carry out air defense suppression by carrying electronic reconnaissance and jamming payloads and conduct close-in reconnaissance and interference tasks, which can allow the fighter to penetrate the enemy defense and also constantly paralyze the enemy's air defense system. It can carry out collaborative reconnaissance with special mission aircraft, and provide early warning by flying ahead of the manned aircraft, or it can also extend the reconnaissance time and scope taking advantage of its long endurance and range.
Next, China also has the Wing Loong-3 (WL-3) UAV, remotely controlled, that is significant improvement on WL-1 and WL-2 similar to USAs MQ-9A/B UAVs, which performs anti-sub, air, land and rescue missions. Its loiter capability is 40-hours and flight range is 10,000 kms - intercontinental. It is armed with 16 PL-10E fourth-generation short-range AAM or bombs to hit other aircraft, drones, and helicopters, maximum take-off weight of 6200 kilograms, with a payload of up to 2300 kilograms (including 2000 kilograms on eight external hangers and 300 kilograms in the internal compartment).
The FH901 on display enables various aircraft systems to work together in support of personnel on the ground. It is advertised as 9 kilograms with a warhead of 3.5 kilograms with an electro-optical and infrared gimbaled seeker that can be controlled by the operator via line of sight data link at the advertised distance of 15 kilometers. The FH901 is canister-launched and has a flight time of over 60 minutes with sustained speeds of 100-150 kilometers per hour. The FH901 shares the terminal dive profile akin to other systems like the Harop and can reach a terminal velocity of 288 km/h.
Other new drones in the Chinese arsenal are WL-1E and WL-10A. WL-1E, built as a challenger to American MQ-1C Grey Eagle. With a maximum endurance of 45 hours and a maximum range of 7,000 kilometers, the WL-1E can fly at an altitude of 10,000 meters while carrying two 50-kilogram-class weapons, giving it a strong take-off and landing performance.
Chinese companies are leaders in the global civilian drone industry. China is the second largest drone market in the world after the US. Chinese drone manufacturer DJI alone has 74% of civilian-market share in 2018, with no other company accounting for more than 5%, and with $11 billion forecast global sales in 2020. It's followed by Chinese company Yuneec, US company 3D Robotics and French company Parrot with a significant gap in market share. As of 2020, more than 80% of civilian drones are made by Chinese companies.
Of course, the US has more than 11,000 UAS in support of domestic training events and overseas contingency missions UAS systems - Drones - across all four Services, including the National Guard. These aircraft range in size from the small RQ-11B Raven to the largest RQ/MQ-4 Global Hawk/Triton, which weighs more than 32,000 pounds.
MQ-1 Predator UAVs armed with Hellfire missiles have been used by the U.S. as platforms for hitting ground targets. Armed Predators were first used in late 2001 from bases in Pakistan and Uzbekistan, mostly aimed at assassinating high-profile individuals (terrorist leaders, etc.) inside Afghanistan. Since then, there have been many reported cases of such attacks taking place in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.
MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations GA-ASI. The MQ-9 is the first hunter-killer UAV designed for long-endurance, high-altitude surveillance. The MQ-9 is a larger, heavier, and more capable aircraft than the earlier MQ-1 Predator. The USAF operated over 300 MQ-9 Reapers as of May 2021,] with 16 additional units on the way as authorized by the FY2021 Congressional budget.
The Russian military operates a fleet of about 500 drones. Russian products lag behind the systems of leading competitors. The Russian MoD has tested and placed orders for small drones such as the Eleron-3SV (Enics, Kazan), the Granat and the Takhion (Izhmash Unmanned Systems, Izhevsk), and the Korsar (United Instrument Manufacturing Corporation, Rostec, currently in testing).
Even Iran in October 2021 unveiled its new Kaman 22 (UAV), which seems to be modeled on the U.S.-made MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, besides the Chinese CH-5 drone. It has provision for AAMs, ASM, ASCMs, hybrid cruise missiles, glide bombs, PGMs, laser targeting pods and X-Band Jammers. Also, has Shahed 129 and Shahed 149 Gaza that have comparable capabilities.
Finally, Pakistan developed Burraq in secrecy from 2009. It has been mostly influenced by the US Predator and the Chinese CH-3 UCAVs. Burraq has a range of 1000 km, its maximum speed is 215 km/h and a service ceiling is 24,606 ft. It carries two ‘Barq’ air-to-surface laser guided missiles which is single stage missile capable of destroying both stationery, as well as, moving targets. Pakistan is also producing 48 Chinese WL-II MALE UCAVs that has a range of 4000 km, an endurance of 20 hours, a service ceiling of 16,004 ft and can carry a payload of 480 kg (1060 Ibs) of air-to-surface weapons - PGMS in terms of guided bombs ( FT 7- 130 kg bomb with planner wing, FT 9 - 50 kg bomb, FT 10 - 25 kg bomb, GB 7 - bomb based on radio command mode of guidance, GB 10 - a flare seeker bomb based on infrared mode of guidance) or cluster bombs or 12 laser guided ASMs or anti-ship missiles and guided rockets. And, Shahpar-II is yet another UACV in its arsenal.
By contrast, currently the Indian armed forces have some 200+ Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Searcher and Heron UAVs of Israeli origin and a few HAROP UAVs recently inducted by the IAF. The Indian Army initially obtained the Searcher Mark I in 1988, followed by the Searcher Mark II which could operate at an altitude ceiling of 15,000 ft and finally acquired the Heron which could operate at an altitude ceiling of 30,000ft. Searcher payload capacity is 150 lbs and operational ceiling is 20,000ft. However, with its abilities to stay aloft for up to 18 hours and carry a variety of sensors, it has rendered yeoman’s service along the Western borders and Indian shores.
Heron, the larger of the two MALE UAVs is more versatile. With a take-off weight of 1,150 kg, it can carry a 250 kg payload of sensors, stay aloft up to 52 hours (depending on the chosen flight profile) and with operating ceiling of 32,000 ft, it has proven to be an extremely useful surveillance tool along the mountainous Northern borders. Harop is a loitering missile capable of seeking targets and destroying them with pin-point accuracy. Harop with 1000 km range and 6 hours endurance. It can be launched against land-based and sea-based targets. The UCAV detects strong pulses from targets such as missiles, radars and hits at the source. It is possible to launch the Harop from ground, sea and air. Most of the UAVs of the Indian armed forces were procured from IAI Malat, whose UAVs were in service with numerous countries.
Three variants of the Rustom UAV developed by the DRDO: Rustom-1: Tactical UAV with endurance of 12 hours; Rustom-H: Larger UAV with flight endurance of over 24 hours, higher range and service ceiling than Rustom-1; TAPAS-BH-201 (Rustom-2) - based on Rustom-H model. NISHANT was developed, but user cancelled orders.
AURA is an autonomous stealthy UCAV being developed by the DRDO for the Indian Air Force. The UCAV will be capable of releasing missiles, bombs and precision-guided munitions. AURA UCAV is India’s most ambitious unnamed aerial system which will have a blend wing body and will have stealth characters to make it effective Ground Strike platform. AURA weighing 15 tons will be powered by a single Ghatak turbofan engine which will allow the drone to cruise at Mach 1.2 at an altitude of 30,000 ft. The full scale prototype is expected in 2025.
The DRDO’s Indigenous Technology Cruise Missile (ITCM) project reportedly suffered another setback after its indigenously developed Manik turbofan engine - a 400-Kg thrust class Small Turbofan Engine for short operating life, developed by Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE), Bengaluru, failed to light up after launch during a test at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) on Friday, October 28, 2022.
To sum up, India is at least 5-10 years behind China, USA, Russia, Israel, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan besides others in the Drone Technology Race which is set change the future wars are going to be fought in space and seas. More importantly, terrorist drone threats will only escalate. How to counter such threats is the real challenge that needs to be overcome earliest.
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