Controversy over Religion wise Population

 

Controversy over Religion wise  Population

The latest debate over religion based population based on the data released is half-baked as on 2015, which is also inaccurate. AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi  responded to the report of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM (EAC-PM) and called it a "report from Whatsapp University." He has also stated that the fertility rate of Muslims is rapidly decreasing that will be on par with the Hindu fertility rate by 2030. That is a million dollar question!

Let me highlight at the outset that the figures given as per PM (EAC-PM)  is contestable. There are “Five Percent Unlisted People” living in inaccessible exclusive localities, which as per demographic experts are not included in the above data.

 

Ipso facto, none can deny that many illegal Muslim migrants have flooded across in neighbouring tracts  of Bangladesh border since 1971. There are comprehensive data available about illegal influx of migrants from Bangladesh. Also many of them have moved into the interior states in search of employment opportunities. Yet another factor of migrations include the Rohingiya migrations from Myanmar through Bangladesh settled in places like Delhi, J & K and even Hyderabad and other cities.

 

The data “Before and After Independence” as per “Census Reports” is given below: 

			Before Independence
Year	Hindu	Muslim		Christian	Sikh	Buddhist	Jain	Others	Not Stated	Total
1901	72.02	21.88		0.98	0.77	0.10	0.47	2.92		99.9
1911	71.68	23.39		1.21	1.00	0.11	0.41	3.21		100.01
1921	70.73	23.23		1.57	1.06	0.12	0.39	3.01		100.01
1931	70.67	23.49		1.77	1.28	0.13	0.37	2.30		100.01
1941	69.46	24.48		1.91	1.46	0.12	0.37	2.41		100.01
			After Independence
1951	84.1	9.8		2.3	1.79	0.74	0.46	0.43		100.01
1961	83.45	10.69		2.44	1.89	0.70	0.46	0.43		100.01
1971	82.73	11.21		2.60	1.92	0.74	0.48	0.41		99.99
1981	82.30	11.75		2.44	1.94	0.70	0.47	0.42		99.99
1991	81.53	12.61		2.32	1.87	0.70	0.40	0.44
2001	80.46	13.43		2.34	1.72	0.77	0.41	0.72
2011	79.80	14.23		2.30	1.71	0.70	0.37	0.9	0.24

 

The review of the official data clearly reflects that the proportion of the Hindu population has reduced from 84.1% in 1951 to 79.80% in 2011. In contrast, the Muslim population has increased from 9.8% in 1951 to 14.23% in 2011.

 

In 2013, Akbaruddin Owaisi is on record highlighting that there over 22.3 crore Muslims out of total 121 crores, that is, nearly 23%.  

 

As per the PM-EAC report, the share of Hindu population in India has dipped 7.82 per cent while that of Muslims, Christians and Sikhs has seen a rise in the 65-year period between 1950 and 2015. While that of Muslims increased by 43.15%, the sShare of Jain population decreased from 0.45 in 1950 to 0.36 in 2015.

 

Never too late to order “Census Report  2024” so that the true picture of increase/decrease of population based on religions is presented to “We the People” of India.

 

The study must also take into consideration the decreases in “Fertility rates” in various religions and project the population variations by 2030, 2040, 2050 and so on. The ‘Total Fertility Rate’ (TFR), measured as the number of children born to a woman, has fallen from 4.97 during 1975-80 to 2.3 for the current period of 2015-20. As of 2017, the TFR is 2.2.  By 2025-30 it is expected to go down to 2.1 and slide to 1.86 during 2045-50 and 1.78 during 2095-2100 as per the latest World population estimates.

 

What is the basis of assumptions of declining rates? Purely guess work. What about addition of “UNADJUSTED POPULATION” approximately 5% as per demographic experts?  So, by 2051 A.D. one cannot rule out the prospect of population peaking at 2000 million (200 crores) representing 20% of global population tucked in barely 2 percent of earth’s surface area.

 

Some of the facts in public domain include: population increased by over 50 percent in 70 years only – from 203.4 million in 1871 to 318.6 million in 1941. After independence, population nearly doubled in 30 years – from 361 million in 1951 to 685 million in 1981. Now, it is over 144 crores overtaking China as the most populated nation in the world.

 

At the same time, based on assumptions of population growth rate declining to 0.97% by 2025, 0.83% by 2030, 0.67% by 2035, 0.52% by 2040, 0.38% by 2045, and 0.27% by 2050, estimated population growth may reach  1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.7 billion by 2050.

 

There is growing apprehension about peaceful Islamic Crescent’s conquest of Assam and West Bengal. There are a large number of anti social elements and potential fifth columnists, who are infiltrating in the garb of immigrants.  Until illegal migrations are halted, identity crises, communal violence, eradication of poverty and illiteracy may remain enigmas.  

               

Most importantly, by no stretch of imagination, jobs can created every day to exploit the “Youth Dividend”. No “Magic wands” for “Jobs for all”. Nearly 10 lakhs are entering India’s workforce each MONTH. Experts are projecting 28 crores to flood the workforce by 2050. According to the labor bureau data, India had added 135,000 jobs during 2015, 421,000 in 2014, 419,000 jobs in 2013, 321,000 jobs in 2012, 929,000 jobs in 2011, and 870,000 in 2009.

 

Also, all those claiming to be champion advocates of “poverty alleviation” and enhanced “life-styles” are only ‘building castle in the air”.

 

In sum, the demographic transition – Deluge or Time Bomb or Volcano - is engulfing endlessly.  It is breeding identity crises, poverty, illiteracy and PQHR's. Communal and caste conflicts are endlessly erupting. If one is controlled on one day another erupts next day.  Violence has already inflicted untold turbulence in some States.  Its virus is rapidly spreading to other States and other fields.  A holistic and multi-pronged strategy – Strategy of Incentives and Disincentives - on the family planning, migration settlement and HRD fronts alone can convert an uphill challenge into an opportunity.