Critical Holistic Strategic Perspective – South Asian Islamist Terrorist Envelopment
The Islamist terrorist envelopment of South Asia is a daunting prospect when viewed from a holistic strategic security perspective. Late General Bipin Joshi in his address to the IPS probationers at the NPA Hyderabad (1993 to 1994), prophesized “Islamic Crescent Envelopment of South Asia”. Of course, its current status may appear peripheral; but it is foolhardy to dismiss its long term inevitability.
All alike are well informed about the Islamist Terrorist Groups (ITGs) operating on the Western front (Including Norco terrorism), particularly in J & K. However, less appreciated is the threat from the Eastern front? Least understood are the multiple threats from the Oceanic Front – both Sea and Air - “Out of sight; out of mind”.
To provide a holistic perspective, the status of Muslim population and its growth estimates, besides the number of Mosques and Madrasas is covered in outline. Remember “Demographics determine nations Destiny”; their rapid transformations are real in South Asia. Moreso, radicalization and recruitment starts from Mosques and Madrassas . More importantly, they provide safe havens.
Population Facts as of August 2024 and likely by 2050: Pakistan - over 240 million to 273 million; Bangladesh – 165 million to reach 218.5-237.5 million (No Hindus by 2050); India – over204 million to over 311 million by 2050. That is, a total of over 609 million as of 2024 to increase to 821 million by 2050. Such a religious demographic shift will naturally result in escalation of religious conflicts. In the ultimate, Balkanization – Second Partition - of India cannot be ruled out.
Facts of Mosques/Madrasas: Pakistan – 3 lakhs/12,000-45000; India – 6 lakhs/38,000; and Bangladesh - 8691/64,000. Conjointly, they viciously churn awesome radicalization and recruitment based on the claim “Islam is Religion Par Excellence” and drubbing non-believers as “Kafirs” from impressionable childhood days. Funding, high-tech terror transmissions and information operations are no constraint with flows from oil-rich West Asia.
The South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) provides the lists of “Proscribed Groups” and “Active Groups” of ITGs present in South Asia; and USAs Counter Terrorism Annual Report 2022.
In Pakistan, there are over 80 Proscribed and 40 Active ITGs operating as per SATP (List of key ITGs at the end). No wonder, Pakistan is the “EPICENTER of TERRORISM”. In 2011, then US Secretary of state Hillary Clinton stated that “You can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to only bite your neighbor.” Such remarks hold good for eternity. Yet, the numbers of ITGs since then have only grown exponentially in Pakistan that is biting them also.
In Bangladesh, there are 9 Proscribed and 4 Active ITGs (list given below).
In India, there are over 47 Proscribed and 20 Active ITGs operating in various parts. “Snakes” are being bred in India’s backyards too. Active ITGs include Harakat ul-Mujahideen (HUM), Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Indian Mujahideen (IM) Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), ISIS, AQIS, Jamaat-ul Mujahideen (JuM), and the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JuMB) are major designated FTOs.
In Sri Lanka there are 6 ITGs. In Maldives, there are 3 ITGs. In Nepal and Bhutan, no ITGS. In sum, over 200 ITGs and their affiliates.
Of utmost significance to note is the presence of global ITGs in almost all the nations in South Asia: Al Qaeda Indian Subcontinent (AQIS); Islamic State/Islamic State of Iraq and Levant /Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Daish(ISIS); Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); LeT; and their surrogates. Global ITGs may be on low profile, but remain resilient, determined and resurgent.
The end objective of all ITGs is to establish Islamic State with strict Sharia Law.
Less publicized is the threat from the Eastern front, that is, Bangladesh. The onslaught of creeping Islamism - local and 3 transnational ITGs – has many ramifications due to their background that dates back to the late 1980s, when approximately 3,000 Bangladeshis joined the US and Saudi sponsored anti-Soviet Jihad. And, Bangladeshi returnees established their own ITGs in their homeland.
In democracy, social polarization based on communal appeasement politics in pursuit of power is real. Khaleda Zia of BNP, pro-Pak and China, with its potential ally Jamaat-e-Islami, is likely to win the forthcoming elections. Jamaat is not the only party in Bangladesh seeking to establish an Islamic state. Even the avowed end objective of all radical ITGs is the same. Let none suffer from illusions.
The list of radical ITGs include: Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB formed in 1998 with Neo-JMB as ISIS affiliates that collaborate with the LeT); Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB formed in 1998 with close ties with JMB); Harkat Ul-Jihad-Islami (HuJI formed in 1992 with AQIS); Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (BJeI) and the party’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) reportedly played a key role in the recent protests; and Hizb-ut-Tahrir (formed in 2001). The HuJI is suspected of working in concert with the ISI-D and the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA). Jamaat-i-Islami (founded as early as 1941) has a student wing called Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS). The ICS are linked to the activities of Pakistan’s ISI-D in Bangladesh. Hefazat-e-Islami - an alliance of teachers and students associated with radical Madrasas - collaborates with JeI. The Al Khidmat Foundation is suspected to be supported by Pakistan’s ISI and has links to the JeI. This tightly-knit coalition of a dozen or so several Islamist organizations allegedly has ties to more than 25,000 Madrasas in Bangladesh and further connections to the Taliban. The demography of terrorist recruits in Bangladesh has significantly changed from religious educational institutions, such as Madrasas, to educational institutions.
The AQIS and ISIS are increasingly active in Bangladesh; and Pakistan’s ISI. AQIS was founded in late 2014 with banned Ansarullah Bangla Team as its affiliate. ISIS formally announced its presence in Bangladesh in November 2015. The Jama’atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAHS) and Ansar al-Islam, AQIS inspired affiliates are also active.
With political polarization reaching historical heights even in neighboring West Bengal and Assam, escalation of Islamist terrorism is bound to engulf Assam, Bengal and Bihar, besides making inroads into UP, Delhi and Odisha earlier than forecasted in the past.
Viewed from the above data, “Islamic Crescent Envelopment“is a multi front threat –both external and internal – to national security. Undeniably, the prophetic remarks of “Islamic Crescent Envelopment “ by Late General Bipin Chandra Joshi(1993-1994) is a horror reality in long term context. Lesson of mankind’s history is simple: “Nations boundaries are drawn and redrawn on the courses they traverse” based on leadership skill to steer them on even keel. The key issue is “With the vicious appeasements politics in play in the name of Democracy” can “We the People” vote for a dynamic and strong leader? Otherwise, disintegration of modern India is inevitable.
KEY ITG Lists:
In Pakistan, the KEY Proscribed ITGs as per SAPT: Al Qaeda; Islamic State/Islamic State of Iraq and Levant/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Daish (ISIS); Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); Lashkar-e- Taiba (LeT); Jaish-e- Mohammad Mujahideen E-Tanzeem; Sipah-e- Sahaba Pakistan (SSP); Lashkar-e- Jhangvi (LeJ); Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM); Jamaat-ul-Dawa(JuD); Jameet-ul-Ansar; Jamaat-ul-Furqan; Jundullah; Islamic Jihad Union (IJU);Sipah-e- Muhammad Pakistan (SMP); Hizb-ul-Tahrir; Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA); Rabita Trust; Al-Rashid Trust; and groups in Gilgit Baltistan (Anjuman-e- Imamia Gilgit Baltistan; Khana-E-Hikmat Gilgit Baltistan; Gilgit; Millat-e-lslamia Pakistan (Ex SSP); Muslim Students Organization (MSO) Gilgit; Shia Tulaba Action Committee, Gilgit; Tanzeem Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat, Gilgit; Tanzeem Naujawana-e-Ahle Sunnat (TNA), Gilgit; and others); Balochistan (Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA); Balochistan Liberation United Front (BLUF); Balochistan Musalla Defah Tanzeem (BMDT); Balochistan National Liberation Army; Balochistan Republican Army (BRA); Baloch Republican Party Azad; Baloch Student Organization Azad (BSO-A); Balochistan WajaLiberation Army; Balochistan United Army; and others); East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM);Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU); Tehrik-e-Jaffria Pakistan (TJP);Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-
The list of Proscribed ITGS in Bangladesh includes; ISIS; AQIS; LeT; HuJI-B; JMB; Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT); Ansar al-Islam; and Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS); and others.
And, the list of 4 active ITGs in Bangladesh includes: Al Qaeda/Al-Qaeda in Indian Sub-continent (AQIS); Allah'r Dal; Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT); and Hizb-ut-Tawhid (HT).
India - key 40 ITG Proscribed Groups includes: AQ/AQIS; ISIS; LeT; LeJ; HM; JeM; HuM; HuJI; JuM; JeI, Hizb-ul-Tahrir; Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA); IJU; IM; Jaish-e-Islam; JuD; Jundullah; TTP; 313 Brigade; Al-Rashid Trust; HuJI-B; ABT; Dukhtaran-e-Millat(DeM); Deendar Anjuman (DA); and others.
India - Key 20 active Islamist Terrorist Groups include: HuM; Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA); ABT; Ansar-ul-Tawhid (AuT); JMB; Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI)/IM; Al Barq; Al Badr; All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC); Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF); LeJ; United Jihad Council (UJC)]; Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind; People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI); and, others.Sri Lanka: ISIS; National Thowheeth Jama'ath(NTJ); Jamathei Millathu Ibrahim (JMI); Hizbul Mujahideen (HM); Al-Badr;and Haqqani Network.
Maldives – AQIS, ISIS and
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