Many Faces of Population Dynamics
To better understand the many faces of the past, current and future of population dynamics, their facts and data are recorded as available in the public domain. Their holistic review should facilitate to chart the strategic course ahead.
Facts:
· Land area: 2,973,190 Km2 (1,147,955 sq. miles) - FINITE.
· Population as of September 21, 2024 UN Data: 1,453,827,722 – In dynamic surge.
· Density of population: 488 per Km2 (1,264 people per mi2) – Uneven distribution.
· 36.6 % of the population is urban (530,387,142 people in 2024).
· In 1960 around 18.5% lived in cities; and as of 2024 the numbers increased to 36.6%. And, projected to reach 52.2% in 2050.
· As of 2024 there are 64 million plus cities and over 300 one lakh plus cities.
· Rapidly depleting Strategic Natural Resources: energy, rare earth minerals, iron, coal, copper, aluminum etc.
Additional Data:
· Past population with Growth rate and percentage of World population: 1951 - 353,870,057 with growth rate of 2.19%; 1961 - 446,564,729 with growth rate of 2.43% and 14.46% of global population; 1971 - 558,096,387 with growth rate of 2.24% and 14.77% of global population; 1981-703,696,250 with growth rate of 2.41% and 15.45% of global population; 1991- 883,927,600 with growth rate of 2.19% and 16.24% of global population; 2001 - 1,077,898,575 with growth rate of 1.89% and 17.14% of global population; 2011:1,261,224,954 with growth rate of 1.43% and 17.78% of global population; 2021: 1,414,203,896 with growth rate of 0.83% and 17.78% of global population; 2024: 1,450,935,791 with growth rate of 0.89% and 17.78% of global population.
· Future Population Projections: India’s projected to peak in 2062 at 1.701 billion, according to United Nations World Population Prospects report 2024. Global expected to peak around mid-2080s with 10.3 billion compared with 8.2 billion in 2024.
· Based on assumptions of population growth rate declining to 0.97% by 2025, 0.83% by 2030, 0.67% by 2035, 0.52% by 2040, 0.38% by 2045, and 0.27% by 2050, estimated population growth may reach 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.7 billion by 2050.
· Life Expectancy 73.3 years as of 2024.
· Decline in total fertility rate (TFR) —Japan's TFR hit a new low of 1.300 in 2021 down from 2.00 in 1960. South Korea’s TFR from 5.95 in 1960 down to 0.81 in 2021. USAs TFR from 3.65 in 1960 down to 1.66 in 2021. China’s TFR from 4.45 in 1960 down to 1.16 in 2021. India’s TFR from 5.92 in 1960 down to 2.03 in 2021 and down to 2.001 as of 2024. However, India’s TFR is below the replacement level of 2.1. By 2045-2050, it is expected to go down to 1.86 and 1.78 during 2095-2100 as per the latest World population estimates.
· “Low-fertility trap”: TFR drops below 1.5, it is virtually impossible to turn it around. Incentives in France, Australia, and Russia failed to yield dividends.
· The UN says countries must invest in education, health and infra to take advantage of demographic dividend.
· Hindu’s were 40% of world’s population in 0001 AD; 20% in 1600 AD, 15% by 1871 AD; and about 15.1% with1.152 billion.
Fundamental Changes in Society
Most important it is to recognize that fundamental changes are sweeping Indian society. Women are getting educated, empowered and working. So, women are choosing to marry later or not marry at all. Even technology has made birth control easy. With the breakdown of the extended family, taking care of the child for many working parents has become unaffordable. Child-rearing is very hard. Living together outside of marriage is no longer considered illegitimate. Single parenthood is no longer stigmatized. Even the old idea of extending one’s biological lineage does not hold the same power it did for earlier generations. We live in the age of narcissism where people are not as much thinking about raising children in extended kinship networks as about personal fulfillment and sense-gratification.
More importantly, the impact of robots and AI machines resulting in the permanent disappearance of jobs caused on the human psyche is real. Parents do not want to have children who will have dim prospects in life. Its fallout is likely to be an even more drastic population decline than forecast by demographers.
Not to be left out of consideration is the ongoing clash of cultures and civilizations contra national security interests.
Declining Rates of Population - Assumptions
The basis of assumptions of declining rates is purely guess work. It does not take into account “UNADJUSTED POPULATION” due to shortcomings in Census compilation in India. So, by 2051 A.D. one cannot rule out the prospect of a population peaking at around 185 crore representing nearly 20% of the global population tucked in barely 2 percent of earth’s surface area.
Strategic Dilemma
Let me highlight the strategic dilemma confronting India. Sir David Attenborough prophetic remarks: “Anyone who thinks you can have infinite growth in a FINITE ENVIRONMENT is either a madman or an economist.”
Is India’s projected peak in 2062 at 170.1 crore, particularly with one-third aged more than 65-years old, a risk for economic future or celebration?” Yet another alternative expert view is that the stabilization of population, besides over 30% in the over 65-years age, provides opportunities to rethink and reshape our economic models for greater equity and resilience.
Challenges
The stabilization of TFR trends of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh is a key challenge. UP may reach 2.1 TFR only around 2100. Some experts believe that the population stops growing only after about a generation of around 25 years after achieving TFR=2.1.
Next, crystal gazing clearly reveals enormous land overload and fatigue prospects. After all, consumption levels have been improving due to improved quality of living. Demands will multiply covering almost all sectors to include: food and drinking water; land reforms; house sites and houses; clothing; education; power; fuels; infrastructure; mineral resources; industries; and so on. Food security, water security (both for drinking and irrigation), energy security, health security and job security challenges or crises will proliferate and escalate.
Also, jobs cannot be created every day to exploit the “Youth Dividend”. No “Magic wands” for “Jobs for all”. Nearly 10 lakh are entering India’s workforce each MONTH. Experts are projecting 28 crore to flood the workforce by 2050. According to the labor bureau data, India had added 135,000 jobs during 2015, 421,000 in 2014, 419,000 jobs in 2013, 321,000 jobs in 2012, 929,000 jobs in 2011, and 870,000 in 2009. All those claiming to be advocates of “poverty alleviation” and better “life-styles” are only ‘building castles in the air”.
Furthermore, the “Youth Dividend” is a bogey. India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. In 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan. However, qquantity-wise, India’s population may be nearly four times larger than the USA. But quality-wise, India’s HDI value (0.545%) is nearly half of the USA (0.927%). The strategic challenge: “With poor quality human resources how to convert and exploit the opportunity?” Quality education to develop innovative capabilities and high-tech skills proficiency remains a forlorn prospect.
Yet another significant challenge is the rapid urbanization which is unstoppable today. The flow may become a tidal wave if development processes do not lend hope to rural people. Human migrations are civilization evolutionary processes. As per Myron Wiener, “migration flow, once begun, induces its own flow”. It sets in motion a chain-cycle reaction. People always shifted from more developed regions to less developed regions.
To sum up, runaway population growth with unemployment crisis, poor innovative/creative and skill HRD, rapidly depleting strategic natural resources (energy, rare earth minerals, iron, coal, copper, aluminum etc) and BPL status, will only further exacerbate crisis proliferations and escalations. Surely, there will be population-induced climate change that will worsen the problem of feeding humanity. By contrast, the advantage of fewer younger people is quite obvious: ease pressure on resources, slow the destructive impact of climate change and so on.
Need for Decisive Political Will - Population Control Policy
Let me highlight that with FINITE ENVIRONMENT with hardly any natural resources, India has no CHOICE. A holistic and multi-pronged strategy – Strategy of Incentives and Disincentives - on the family planning, migration, and settlement and HRD fronts alone can convert an uphill challenge into an opportunity.
The present TFR trends particularly of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are not encouraging. And, they must be controlled by aggressive “incentive and Disincentive Schemes”. There is an urgent need to stabilize India’s population much earlier than projected; but may be by 2051 at a lower level of 151 crore by formulating and implementing an appropriate “Population Control Policy.” Decisive political will is an imperative; but most unlikely given the prevailing vicious politics.
Remember always that the State cannot squander away its resources on those individuals who do not care to promote national interests. Surely, the State can enforce administrative measures uniformly so that people opt for population control. Individuals may enjoy the right to abide by their religious norms, but they cannot lay claims as a matter of right to extension of perks and privileges, such as reservations, scholarships, ration cards, house sites, loans, subsidies, LTC's, lands and so on.
Sunrise Technology Age and Economy experts must identify and define alternative options and review their feasibility for India’s extremely complex and dynamic environment. And, the political and bureaucratic policy and decision makers must seek and take decisions and follow up effective implementation in a time bound manner.
Otherwise, the inevitable proliferation and escalation of crises will engulf the nation. The future prospects are likely to be dim as opposed to claims of emerging superpower status.
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