India Under All round Seize
Fallout of Global and Regional Geopolitics)
Let me repeat, what I wrote in early 2001 over two decades ago, that “India is besieged by all round crises: external and internal. By contrast, other nations pale into insignificance.
Many holistic phrases coined by intellectual elites include: Geography is destiny; History, too, is destiny, for to understand the future, study the past; and so also, demographics are also destiny. Real is the melting crucible or burning volcano of India due to fusion of geography, history and demographics.
As per the UN projections, the World population from nearly 8.2 billion as of September 2024 is set to increase nearly to 10 billion by 2050. The scramble of natural resources will be inevitable. Maintaining social equilibrium is a Himalayan challenge in a pluralistic and diverse country like India. Naturally, there will be global crises proliferation and escalation.
At one stage, globalization due to high-tech breakthroughs was hailed to make borders irrelevant by experts and media. Some among them predicted the end of geography or history or demographics. Yet, the primordial and ethnic loyalties have resurfaced globally with the right wing polarization in pursuit of resurgence of their dominance even in the USA.
Viewed in a holistic security strategic perspective, the global and regional geo politics are extraordinarily dynamic and complex. And, the blend or churning of geography with history and demographics are continuing to erupt on the global plane. None can stop them. Peace, stability and harmony is a forlorn expectation in posterity.
India’s crises ad infinitum over the past many millennia have been compared to the multi-headed Ravana of the Ramayana Epic: “severe one head, another spring up”. It is happening on a daily basis: the media highlights one crisis, yet other multiple crises explode the next day. Nowadays, if one gang rape and murder makes headlines on one day in one State, the very next day yet another gruesome rape incident makes media headlines in another State. It is even so globally.
Ipso facto, historically India’s external threats/crises are mostly invited as history abundantly testifies it; but also imposed by alien invaders. It is no different even now. Today’s superpowers – USA and China – do not want another power to challenge their supremacy.
Lesson of Mankind’s history is simple: “Today’s friends can be tomorrow’s enemies; and today’s enemies can be tomorrows’ friends.” To illustrate further, there are many “Jaichandra’s” lurking in every nook and corner of India bidding for their time to strike hard. Their only hunger or quest is to grab power somehow with national security interests being their least concern.
Furthermore, the only difference is they looked to Soviet Union in the past; now they look up to China, radical Islamist State and Non-State actors and even the USA. Apart from China, Pakistan’s ISI with AQIS and ISIS among many others and even George Soros and anti-India critics Ilhan Omar, US Lawmaker, are bent upon assisting Indian cohorts to derail India’s course to become a Great Power in its own quest and right.
The IISS Military Balance 2024 highlights that the World has entered the most dangerous period with over 165,273 political violence events recorded worldwide during the previous 12 months (July 2023 to June 2024) marking a 15% increase from the previous reporting year. Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine and Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Algeria, and so on, are in a near and deathly geographical embrace of wars and terrorism.
As per the Crisis Group experts, 10 conflicts to watch include: Gaza, the prospects of wider Middle East War, Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Ethiopia, Sahel, Haiti, Democratic Republic of Congo, Armenia-Azerbaijan, coups in Niger and Gabon, and China’s more assertive maneuvers around Taiwan, in the South China Sea and elsewhere. Surely, the deteriorating security environment is exemplified by a mounting number of severe conflicts unable to restore political stability and peace.
Ipso facto, China is not only racing to catch up with the USA in the “Hard Power - economic, military and technology power”, but also in “Soft Power” to overtake the USA by 2049 by emerging as the dominant power. Its footprints in South America, Africa, Central Asiatic Republics and even in the West Asian oil rich countries are steadily increasing covering all fields.
Furthermore, China has been aggressively building up its seafaring capability – blue-water Oceanic Navy - to safeguard its maritime security interests thereby moving beyond the Western Pacific into the Indian Ocean. After all, PLAN also needs to guard its merchant fleet, and to protect its trade routes between the hydro-carbon rich Middle East and China’s Pacific Coast. As part of its “Strings of Pearls” strategy, China has been helping to build or upgrade ports around India: in Kyaukpyu in Burma, Chittagong in Bangladesh, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. The latest is its strategic forays into the Maldives. In all of these countries, China is providing substantial military and economic aid, and political support. India, if any, feels surrounded. To break out of the ever enlarging strategic strangulation by China, India has upped its strategic aspiration to enhance its presence throughout the Indian Ocean from southern Africa to Australia – Great Nicobar Island Project!
Regional Geopolitical Environment
India, geographically located like a dagger jetting into the center of the Indian Ocean, is critical for seaward penetration of both the Middle East and China for both superpowers and other developed and developing powers. So, the direction in which India tilts could determine the course of geopolitics in 21st century. No wonder, the Western elitist thinkers continue to hail India as the “Ultimate Pivot State”.
While India as a subcontinent makes eminent geographical sense, the present Indian State still does not conform to the borders of the Subcontinent and that is the heart of its dilemma: for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and to a lesser extent Nepal also lie within the subcontinent, and pose security threats to India. Even Afghanistan and Maldives can be added to regional geopolitics templates. So, South Asia as a region is one of the least stable geopolitics in the world. No wonder, India’s vital political energy is denied to harness for power projection throughout the rest of the World due to the regional disruptive geopolitical environment.
Stating the most obvious, the Indo-Chinese border is a matter of dispute. Until recently, India has been more or less a land bound nation. To up the ante, China is laying claims to the entire Arunachal Pradesh. Now that the Chinese have built roads and airfields throughout Tibet, India falls into the arc of operation of Chinese fighter pilots and missile/rocket range. China also has a history of lending support to insurgents from the Northeast.
Be that as it may, India and China constitute among the world’s most dynamic and complementary trading relationships. Both nations are using economic development success to build military power, especially for expensive air warfare and naval platforms. Certainly, the new India-China rivalry richly demonstrates that technologies of war and wealth creation go hand in hand, and the finite size of earth is increasingly a force for instability, as military hardware and software shrink mileage on the geopolitical map.
Next, India’s fear of Pakistan – and vice versa – is existential. The 75-year long bipolar conflict features among the least stable geopolitics in the World. Add to it, the disputed Himalayan State of Kashmir as another one. It is worse because of nuclear weapons. Even Afghanistan can be added to strategic conundrum. After all, Afghanistan also lays claims for its role in the subcontinent. Today, Afghanistan too is a sponsor of Islamist radical terror groups.
The recent political churning in Bangladesh has resulted in Mohammad Yunus, seen as being close to America, taking charge in Dhaka in an interim administration post Sheik Hasina exit, which is seen as proof of US handiwork. Yunus' latest meeting with Bill Clinton and introducing the student leaders indicates his present strategic political maneuvers. Of course, China has welcomed the formation of the interim government headed by Yunus. Chinese diplomats attended the swearing-in ceremony. But, Chinese observers expect that the interim government may not last. They prefer Khaleda Zia to take the helm quickly. China is expected to gain big in Bangladesh given the latter’s $6billion debt.
Even the China-Maldives ties have improved with the election of Mohamed Muizzu as president in 2023. On March 5, 2024, the Maldives and China signed a bilateral military pact. President Mohamed Muizzu considers his country's relationship with Beijing as one of the Maldives' closest 'allies and developmental partners' in the region.
The Islamist Terrorist Groups are escalating crises proliferation aided abetted by the State actors and their colluding groups in India. Most importantly, the slow and steady demographic shifts – growth of Muslims and decline of Hindus - especially rapid in neighboring States of West Bengal, Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand, prenominate dire forebodings in posterity.
In retrospect, the churning of India’s geo politics, both fallout ramifications of global and regional conflict escalation, cannot be avoided. Furthermore, the confrontation is real between a Hindu-majority and Islamist States with Pakistan towards the West, Afghanistan towards the North and Bangladesh towards the East and separated by a crowded, common border. Also, the Islamist Radical Terrorists are in pursuit of establishing the Greater Islamic Caliphate in South Asia.
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