Part 5 - Technology Race - Nuclear Energy Technologies?
Article by GB Reddy Sir
The key macro level issues pertaining to the "Nuclear Energy Technologies", as part of the electricity generating agencies, have been restricted to policy and decision making levels to determine end objectives in pragmatic manner for the scientists and technologists to implement:
a. Growth of Electricity Installed capacity.
b. Climate Crisis and "Net Zero" commitment.
c. Long Term Goal.
d. Basic facts pertaining to Nuclear Energy Technologies.
e. Global Trends - GEN IV Forum.
f. History of India's Nuclear Energy.
g. Future programs.
Growth of Electricity Installed Capacity
In Dec 1947, installed capacity of electricity was only 508 MWe. The growth story of installed capacity (in Megawatts) includes: 1961 - 1917 MWe; 1971 - 16271 MWe; 1981 - 33316 MWe; 1991-74699 MWe; 2001 - 101630 MWe; and, 2011 - 185496 MWe. As on 31 August 2022, the total installed capacity of 407.797 GW to include: Total Fossil Fuel -236.086 GW (57.9%) with Coal producing 204.079 MWs (50.0%), Lignite producing 6.620 MWs (1.6%), Gas producing 24,824 MWs (6.1%), and Diesel producing - 562 MWs (0.1).
And, Non-Fossil Fuel RES (Incl. Hydro and Nuclear) total installed capacity of 171.71 GW includes: Hydro producing 46,850 MWs (11.5 %), Wind producing 41.666 MWs (10.2 %), Solar producing 60,814 MWs (14.9 %), BM Power/Cogen producing 10,206 MWs (2.5 %), Waste to Energy producing 495 MWs (0.1 %), and Small Hydro Power producing 4,899 MWs (1.2 %). Nuclear installed capacity is 6,780 MWs (1.7%). Today, few analysts claim that India has moved from power deficit to power surplus nation with total generating capacity at 1,386 bn kWh, which is 122% of own usage, that is total consumption of 1,137.00 bn kWh. Now, India is exporting power to Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
However, the reality of per capita electric consumption provides a different perspective. It was merely 16 kWh in 1947 that increased to 914 KWh in 2012-2013 and 1208 kWh in 2021. By contrast with advanced countries like Canada -15,438, USA-13098, Korea - 11082, Australia - 9906, Japan -8010 and even China - 4906 among others, it is insignificant. Per capita consumption, which is the hallmark of developed nations, is well below the global average of 3,260 KWh.
The state of nuclear reactors operational, under construction and planned includes: 54 reactors operational in 7 x Nuclear reactor plants. By types/classification, there are 3 BWRs of GEN I (1969) vintage, 12 PHWRs of GEN II category, 36 PHWRs and three VVERs in GEN category. The installed capacity of only 2xPHWRs of GEN III category is 500 MWe with the rest having capacity of 220 MWe. And, the installed capacity of VVERs is 1000 MWe. And, there are 11 reactors with installed capacity of 8900 MW under construction to include: Seven IPHWRs of GEN III (each 700 MW); and Four VVER-1000 (each 1000 MW). Also, 26 reactors with installed capacity of 27,500 MW are proposed to include: Six EPR GEN III+ category (each 1650 MW), Six ESBWR GEN III category (each 1000 MW), Six LWR GEN III category (each 1000 MW) and 8 IPHWR GEN III category (each 700 MW). If all them are considered to be executed by 2030, even then the total installed capacity will be around 43,180 MW or 43.180 GW, which does not even constitute 4% by 2030 of total installed capacity. At least 10-15% NUC contribution as opposed to 20% in advanced countries like the US or France should be bench mark.
Climate Crisis and Net Zero Commitment
India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement for the Period 2021- 2030 include: reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level; and, to achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from Non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer of technology and low cost international finance. Currently visualized is 450 GW renewable and 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030, which needs review.
Long Term Goal
"24x7 power supply without interruption" is India's long term goal. Four factors must be taken into account while determining the end objectives to include: economic super power rise (7-8 percent annual GDP increase); population growth to 1.85 billion; at least 3-4 times increase of per capita consumption/demand (to reach world average of 3260 MWe); and climate change constraints.
As per the IEAs Energy Outlook 2021 released recently, India's energy consumption is expected to nearly double as GDP expands to an estimated $8.6 trillion by 2040 under its current national policy scenario. In particular, reducing fossil fuel consumption to 30%.
On the basis of a 3-times increase in per capita consumption to move above the current world average and addition of nearly 400 lakhs population to the current level by 2050, the requirement could be over 1200 GW. With the reduction of fossil fuels contribution from 60% to at least 40% (that is 480 GW), surely the end objective of RES+NUC would be over 720 GW with NUC share at 120 GW (10%).
Thus, the imperative for pragmatic analysis to identify and define end objectives for each field. Perhaps, the end objective of total installed capacity to be achieved by 2047 by conservative estimates be 600-700 GWe by 2030, and 1200 GWe by 2050, and by optimistic estimates to reach 1500 GWe by 2050. If so, review of end objectives for fossil fuels and non-fossil fuels for each plan period is vital.
Basic facts pertaining to Nuclear Energy Technologies.
Nuclear power is the use of nuclear reactions - fission, fusion and decay. Presently, electricity from nuclear power is produced by nuclear fission of uranium and plutonium. . Fusion is the process of combining two nuclei to create energy. It has the ability to provide power around the clock, 365 days a year. Nuclear decay processes are used in niche applications such as radioisotope thermoelectric generators in some space probes such as Voyager 2.
Over 12 advanced reactor designs are under development. Research of nuclear fusion power is in an advanced stage. Also, there is research to combine fusion and fission processes to generate hybrid nuclear power. When a sustained nuclear fusion power plant is built, it has the potential to be capable of extracting all the fission energy that remains in spent fission fuel, reducing the volume of nuclear waste by orders of magnitude, and eliminating all actinides present in the spent fuel and others.
Breeding is the process of converting non-fissile material into fissile material that can be used as nuclear fuel. As of 2017, there are two breeders producing commercial power, the BN-600 reactor and the BN-800 reactor, both in Russia. Both China and India are building breeder reactors. The Indian 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) is in the commissioning phase, with plans for two more.
Furthermore, new small modular reactors, such as those developed by NuScale Power, are aimed at reducing the investment costs for new construction by making the reactors smaller and modular, so that they can be built in a factory. Certain designs had considerable early positive economics, such as the CANDU, which realized a much higher capacity factor and reliability when compared to GEN II LWRs of the 1990s.
Classification of Nuclear Reactors
Nuclear reactors are classified by type of nuclear reaction like fission, fusion or by moderator fuel like Graphite-moderated (GCR), Heavy Water, Light Water, Light-element-moderated, liquid element moderated and Organic moderated and also by gas - Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor (AGR), or, by Coolant like Pressurized water reactor (PWR) or Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWR), Boiling water reactor (BWR), Supercritical water reactor (SCWR), Reduced moderation water reactor [RMWR], sodium cooled pool type LMFBRs, Gas cooled reactors and Molten-Salt reactors (MSR).
Also, nuclear reactors are classified by Generations - Generation I (GEN I) developed in 1950-60s, GEN II reactors developed in 1965-1996, GEN III 1996-2016 or III+ developed in 2017-2021, and GEN IV research and development started after 2000 - Gas-cooled fast reactor, Lead-cooled fast reactor, Molten-salt reactor, Sodium-cooled fast reactor, Supercritical water reactor and Very-high-temperature reactor with the primary goals being to improve nuclear safety, improve proliferation resistance, minimize waste and natural resource utilization, and to decrease the cost to build and run such plants. Furthermore, theoretically possible GEN V and V+ have been identified for research and development.
GEN III PWRs reactors - VVER-1000 of Russia - use high-pressure water as moderator and coolant. GEN III BWRs/ABWRs - GE, Toshiba and Hitachi - use low-pressure water as moderator and coolant without the steam generator - Higher, simpler, more stable and safe. GEN III+ IPHWRs - BARC IPHWR - uses high-pressure heavy water as moderator and coolant very similar to PWRs but using heavy water. RBMK uses graphite as moderator and high-pressure water as coolant. They are refuelable during power operation, but very unstable, large, expensive making containment buildings. GCR uses graphite moderator and carbon dioxide as coolant and AGR uses gas. Have a high thermal efficiency compared with PWRs. LMFBR No moderator; liquid metal (Lead or Sodium) is the coolant. MSR uses graphite as moderator and molten-salt mixture as coolant.
Electricity Generating Capacity of GEN III or III+ of various makes include: ABWR-II (GE, Toshiba and Hitachi)- 1638; EPR (France Areva) - 1600 MWe; AP 1000 (Westinghouse, Toshiba) - 1117 MWe; CAP 1400(SNPTC, Westinghouse) - 1400 MWe; VVER 1200 (Russia) - around 1100 MWe; IPHWR (BARC) - 700 MWe, FBR (India) - 500 MWe; etc. So, various options available need to be considered from the life-cycle costs and final choices of the most cost-effective reactor-mix at various plants.
Global Trends and GEN IV Forum
In 1954, there were "Zero" nuclear reactors. By the end of 2021, there were 437 operational nuclear reactors in 32 out of 195 countries worldwide with a combined capacity of 396 GW providing about 10 per cent of the world’s electricity. There are also 53 nuclear power reactors under construction and 98 reactors planned, with a combined capacity of 60 GW and 103 GW, respectively. The US has the largest fleet of nuclear reactors. The US and the UK generate roughly 20% of their electricity from nuclear energy and in France, it's 70%. Most reactors under construction are GEN III reactors.
In July 2001, 13 countries formed the GEN IV forum to pursue international collaborative efforts to develop next generation nuclear energy systems that can help meet the world’s future energy needs. GEN IV designs are based on eight technology goals including to improve economics, safety, proliferation resistance, natural resource utilization and the ability to consume existing nuclear waste in the production of electricity. The GIF selected six reactor technologies for further research and development to include: GCR, Reduced moderation water reactor [RMWR], sodium cooled pool type (LMFBRs), Lead-cooled Fast Reactor (LFR), MSR, SCWR, LMFBR and Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). Most of these reactors differ significantly from current operating light water reactors. They are expected to be available for commercial construction after 2030. India is yet to become its member.
The world is now at a nuclear crossroads. Nuclear energy scares people. However, the scale of the climate crisis is encouraging governments to give the nuclear industry another look. The latest UN-backed climate science shows the world should nearly halve emissions over this decade to have any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. For net "Zero" emissions, nuclear power generation should more than double between 2020 and 2050.
There is intense and heated debate between anti and pro nuclear activists. The anti nuclear groups, due to memories of accidents at Fukushima, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island, suffer from fear, deterring investors from funding new projects. As per them, nuclear reactors are expensive to build. Costs and time overruns are routine. Also, safe disposal of radioactive waste is a headache. Uranium mining process emits greenhouse gases. Germany began winding down its nuclear industry. All six reactors still operating in Germany should be shut by the end of next year.
Pro-nuclear reactor groups emphasize that nuclear power flows even when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. The costs will decline and delivery times shortened when the nuclear reactors are mass-produced in factories than built entirely on sites. It requires a small physical footprint - less than one percent of the space required by wind and solar energy. Providing all energy via wind and solar technologies would require ramping up these energy sources ten times as fast as they are being built today, consuming millions of acres etc. Most importantly, nuclear reactors produce zero-carbon fuels such as hydrogen that will be needed to power heavy industry and heavy freight and shipping.
However, Europe is mulling more nuclear power. The UK supports the construction of the country's first nuclear power station in more than two decades in southwestern England. Meanwhile, the US has given $6 billion in grants to keep older plants running. France has announced intent to begin building new plants for the first time in nearly 20 years. And, the most energetic push is in China. As of September 2022, China operates 53 nuclear reactors, with a total capacity of 55.6 GW. More than 20 reactors are under construction with a total capacity of 24.2 GW. China has launched a new GEN IV indigenously developed by use of 'pebble bed reactor' (PBR) - high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear plant in the eastern coastal province of Shandong with capacity of around 200 MWe.
History of India's Nuclear Energy
In 1950, Homi Jehangir Bhabha formulated a "three-stage nuclear power programme" through the use of uranium and thorium reserves found in the monazite sands of coastal regions of South India. India has only around 1–2% of the global uranium reserves, but has about 25% of the world's known thorium reserves. As per estimates, the country could produce 500 GWe for at least four centuries using just the country's economically extractable thorium reserves. Thus, the focus on nuclear power generation through fast breeder reactors and thorium fuelled reactors based on the three-stage nuclear power programme featuring the use of a thorium fuel cycle (uranium-233 bred from thorium as fission fuel ) in the third stage, as it has large thorium reserves but little uranium:
· Stage 1: PHWRs using indigenous uranium which efficiently produces not only energy but also fissile plutonium. It is also proposed to take up a programme of addition of LWR units in the first stage based on imported technology.
· Stage 2: FBRs reprocessing the spent nuclear fuel and using the recovered plutonium.
· Stage 3: Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) Based on the Th-233U cycle. 233U is obtained by irradiation of thorium in PHWRs.
On August 4, 1954, the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) was created. In 1965, In August 1956, “Apsara”, the first research reactor in Asia became operational in the Trombay campus of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre which was shut down in 2009. Subsequently, five more reactors namely CIRUS (40 MWt), ZERLINA, Purnima, Kamini and Dhruva (100 MWt) reactors were built for specific research programmes. In 1971, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) at Kalpakkam was set up with the main objective of conducting a broad based multidisciplinary programme of scientific research and advanced engineering, directed towards the development of sodium cooled FBR technology. Also, new research centres were created like Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre (VECC) at Kolkata and Centre for Advanced Technology (CAT) at Indore.
On 28th October 1969, the first commercial atomic power station - Tarapur Atomic Power Station with two boiling water reactor (BWR), first of their kind in Asia - was commissioned at Tarapur, Maharashtra under 123 agreements signed between India, the United States, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It was built for the Department of Atomic Energy by GE and Bechtel.
The 2005 Indo–US Nuclear Deal and the NSG waiver, which ended more than three decades of international isolation of the Indian civil nuclear programme, have created many hitherto unexplored alternatives for the success of the three-stage nuclear power programme. Meanwhile in 2005 and 2006, two PHWR units of 540 MW each were constructed at TARAPUR by BHEL, L&T and Gammon India, and commissioned 7 months ahead of schedule and within original cost estimates, operated by NPCIL.
In early 2000, DAE had plans to develop an installed nuclear capacity of 20 GWe by the year 2020, but failed to deliver largely due to anti-nuclear protests at the proposed nuclear plant sites - Jaitapur, Kudankulam, Kovvada and Haripur. In October 2010, India drew up a plan to reach a nuclear power capacity of 63 GW in 2032. Now, the proposed Nuclear Power Plant planned in Haripur has been shifted to Kavali in Andhra Pradesh. Interestingly, the Nuclear Power Plant planned at Kovvada in Andhra Pradesh has been shifted from Mithi Virdi in Gujarat. The revised date of commissioning of the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), which is a 500 MWe fast breeder nuclear reactor presently constructed at Kalpakkam in October 2022, is yet to be announced.
Future Programs
Long term forecasts are always full of uncertainties. Lead-times for developing new technologies are very long. Therefore, foresight in identifying areas and initiating R&D in those directions is very critical. 500 MWe FBRs, based on the successful Kalpakkam PFBR, have the potential to ensure that generation by the middle of the present century is about 25% of the total electricity generation. This path would enable us to limit the primary energy import to about 30%.
In India, a road map for future technologies is envisioned to include: Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) planned at BARC to gain useful experience in using thorium-based fuels and to expedite the transition to thorium-based systems. Also, in the research work on fusion devices at the Institute of Plasma Research (IPR), and development of accelerator driven sub-critical reactor system (ADS) at BARC. The development of ADS in India evolved during 1999-2001. Major activities in ADS have started in BARC and some units of DAE, notably in CAT, Indore and VECC, Kolkata.ADS is a subcritical reactor device for producing nuclear power, which would operate with high neutron economy and safety. Development of such a system offers the promise of shorter doubling time with Th-233U systems, incineration of long lived actinides and fission products and can provide robust technology for large scale thorium utilization.
Fusion research is mainly carried out at IPR, Ahmedabad. Apart from detailed studies on fundamental aspects of plasma physics viz., generation and confinement of plasma, diagnostic tools for characterization have been well studied using the Mark-1 TOKAMAK, ADITYA. A steady state TOKAMAK SST-1 is currently under advanced stage of development at IPR, Gandhinagar, bringing our current status to the forefront in the international arena. This device is used to produce, confine and heat the plasma.
To sum up, the review clearly indicates the road map ahead at the policy decision making:
· Holistically review of current plans to determine plan objectives taking into consideration the needs of raising India as economic power, population growth trends, three-fold per capita consumption, and "Climate Crisis" commitments.
· Cooperation and collaboration between Ministry's of Power, RES, Nuclear and Energy to formulate the future plans for 2030 and 2050 to meet the Climate commitments.
· The Judiciary must stop accepting PLIs from anti-nuclear civil activists.
· Decommission GEN I and II reactors, which are obsolete. Also, commitments to the IAEA for inspections at various plants.
· Make cost-effective choices of reactors-mix for each of the 13 nuclear reactor plants under consideration - between 1600 MWe, 1000 MWe, indigenous PHWRs of 700 MWe, FBR 500-600 MWe using thorium, besides the state of the art factory built small reactors in a midterm context of 2030 or when they become operational.
· Apply for membership of GEN IV Forum that is carrying out future trends of 12 advanced technologies research aimed at smaller, modular built in factories, improving economics, safety, proliferation resistance, natural resource utilization and the ability to consume existing nuclear waste and collaborate in research and development of theoretically feasible GEN V AND GEN V+ reactors.
· Not but not the least and most critical is to stop the illegal sand mining along the coasts of South India and their exports to other countries earliest. Otherwise, sooner than later there will be no "monazite sands bearing Thorium reserves" available.
Article by GB Reddy ISrUnit Type Capacity (MWe)
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