What is in Store for Indians in 2022?

In most probable scenarios, the State of India may continue to burn even in 2022. If one wild fire-crisis/conflict - is extinguished, another one will flare up. Bush-fire fighting is most vexatious. Such is the fury of vicious ongoing confrontational rhetoric. No more, political leaders and parties believe in "Consensus and Conciliation" - processes of democracy. Enduring peace is a forlorn hope. If the past is the prism through which the future is viewed, the doomsday scenario possibilities are myriad.

Optimists may view such a prospect as far-fetched. Yet, this is the scary picture that threatens to emerge before every nationalist, as long as the Indian Opposition behaves irresponsibly contrary to national security interests.

If Opposition political leaders and parties want India to flourish as a nation, they must shun personal hatred and behave like sworn enemies and behave responsibly expected out of leaders in democracy to enable the government to manage numerous challenges sagaciously.

Let me briefly highlight the challenges. One, “Modern India” is engulfed with the “Covid-19 Pandemic”. The third wave has broken out. Omicron has made an entry. Horror of FLORONA may also follow along with the fourth wave, which threatens to become a reality, if the apologetic and pathetic situation continues to prevail in states, especially in Opposition ruled states.

Two, crisis of leadership is real. Self-centric obsession, narcissism and megalomania – I-Myself-My Progeny obsession continues to dominate political scenarios, particularly at the States and lower levels. The extravaganza and splendor of Neo Maharajas enjoying perks and privileges at taxpayers are far more lavish than the real Maharajahs of bygone periods/ancient past. In reality, “We the People” are responsible for democracy to be hijacked by dynasts and kleptocrats/neo-Maharajahs, which abhor and resist change. They want the status quo at all costs. Gullible people will continue to follow their masters.

Three, Modi and the BJP are slowly losing electoral traction. 2022 election results of five states are viewed forerunners of the electoral outcome of 2024. BJP is banking on all foundation stones laid or projects announced till now to yield electoral dividends in 2024, particularly the inauguration of Phase 1 of "Ram Temple at Ayodhya". Should they fail to yield the desired outcomes, hung Parliament/Assemblies may be the outcomes in 2024. It implies political instability. And, TINA (There is no Alternative) among the opposition ranks who can inspire confidence among the Aam Admi to effectively manage the numerous challenges that may confront India is real.

Four, for internal unity, internal political stability is an imperative. And, internal political instability is contrary to national security interests. Most importantly, in the face of highbred external security threats over a wide spectrum that cannot be effectively countered sans internal unity. Otherwise, external adversaries are bound to exploit the fissures or fault lines contra India's national security interests.

Five, the cancer of corruption or epidemic of corruption continues as hitherto fore particularly at the middle and lower levels.

Six, none can deny the crisis in national values – democracy, secularism and socialism. “We the People” are squarely responsible for allowing such an absurd status to resurface.

Seven, India's internal political scenario is bizarre. Systemic collapse is real. Vicious no-holds barred politics is on grand display 24x365. Political institutions are in a state of paralysis due to political polarization. The populist backlash against multicultural left liberalism is set to dramatically alter past shared narratives and a common identity. In sum, the proliferating internal security crises are real and will remain most challenging to overcome. The latest security breach of PMs convoy glaringly reflects the 'Lowest of Low" in confrontational politics. No wonder, the Sikhs for Justice Forum on the pay roll of the ISI is exploiting the situation to spread vitriolic in the international forums tarnishing nations image.

Eight, secularism incorporated in the Constitution in 1976 remains a nebulous concept. Consequently, pseudo secularism has consolidated. Meanwhile, Islamist radicalism has emerged as the most potent threat. Its reactive fallout is right wing Hindu communal polarization. Communal conflicts are, therefore, continuing to simmer in the "crucible of conflicts".

Nine, socialism was abandoned in 1990; but remains on paper. Rich have become rich and the poor continue to remain poor. Unemployment and inflation will continue to pose a major challenge. All alike want "government jobs' which is a foretold prospect with official unemployment rate remaining above 7%. To lift nearly 30 crores from "below the Poverty Line" is a Himalayan Challenge to overcome.

Ten, "Populism", in the name of "Welfare State", through pre-poll promises will remain the means invoked by political leaders to reclaim power with utter disregard to financial "Pauperization" of States and the Nation.

Eleven, "Media", bitter competitive journalism, mostly partisan depending on alien patronage, can be compared to a "Rogue" cruise missile unleashed with multiple warheads. Coverage of false and fake news - Misinformation, obfuscation, skullduggery, rumors, and conspiracy theories - due to vicious politics, is a necessary byproduct of living in a free society.

In sum, Paranoia is all pervading. All institutions of the Constitution are suffering internal atrophy.

So, never too late to review the relevance of the present Constitution that was adopted when India had barely 34 crore people, mostly illiterate (85%) and least aspiring. The political order prescribed in the Constitution of India does not lend hope for peace, progress, prosperity and brotherhood. After all, today's 135 crores aspirational society with heightened demands and polarization on narrow parochial lines - caste, communal and caste lines - are a sure recipe for disaster. Anyway, the Constitutions are virtually defaced and mutilated.

The need for the Second Republic - a new political order - stands recognized nearly two decades ago. There is an urgent need to identify and prescribe a new national political order. Yet, there is no breakthrough sighted on the horizon. By further procrastination over the key issue due to short term political expediency, modern India will inexorably head towards inevitable collapse.

Most importantly, successive regimes, mostly idealistic, never considered it vital to formulate and publish National Security Strategy to include: Vision, End Objectives, Policies and Strategies. It is the singular failure of successive governments. Ambiguity suits political leaders and parties to cover up or hide their incompetence or calculative manipulation to somehow cling to power.

Consequently, defensive and knee-jerk reactive strategies and “bush-fire fighting” to contain and marginalize operational crises and conflicts remains successive ruling regimes prime-occupation.

Failure to identify “Strategic Challenges”, particularly demographic transitions as the mother of all challenges and corruption as foster mother of all challenges, has cumulatively engulfed modern India by multiple ad infinitum crisis proliferations.

Viewed in the domestic political environment, India faces a myriad of challenges to overcome but with opportunities to exploit. And, how modern India emerges depends on the sagacity of political leadership in power until 2024.

By insulating himself in 7, Lok Kalyan Marg and appearing in poll rallies, Modi has distanced himself from the "Aam Admi". His appeal through monthly "Man Ki Baat" to the nation is fading away. Unless he re-establishes personal rapport with the people and feels the pulse at ground level like an "Active Pracharak", his charisma may lose its sheen. The least he must do is to give an audience on a daily basis to people to submit their grievances at his home, particularly to those from outside the NCR area.

In the Parliament, it is good to allow Ministers to participate and rebut opposition diatribes invoking management theoretical postulations, but Modi as the Prime Minister must also actively participate in debates over contentious issues.

Sans strong, time bound and decisive actions against corrupt politicians, India is moving to be labeled as "Banana Republic".

Modi must abandon Gandhi's followership leadership style of functioning and adopt Sardar Vallabhai Patel's leadership style and steer the course of the nation on an even keel. Otherwise, many of his followers will also abandon him and look for an alternative in 2024. After all, the precedent was set by him only in 2014 when he consigned "AB Vajpayee, L K Advani and other elders to "Margadarshak Mandal" status. Likelihood of BJPs internal turmoil cannot be ruled out in search of a strong leader.

 (To Continue - Prospects of India emerging as a Super Power?)

Article by Brig (Retd) G B Reddy Sir 

gundreddi5@gmail.com